Bitcoin WARNING: A Yield Shock Is Coming Transcript, AI Summary & Key Points

00:03 Welcome back to Cryptos Us. I'm George. We're all George. I have some camera issues right now. [gasps] I don't know what's going on with my camera. It looks uh kind of freaky right now. Uh I'm gonna have to redo this somehow. Oh boy. I can't get this going. >> [snorts] [clears throat] >> All right, I should be I should be back now. Got my camera fixed.

00:49 So, welcome back to Cryptos are Us. I am George. We're all George. Uh, welcome to another market open stream. Although I I just had some technical difficulties. Um, today we got to talk about, you know, a couple things. There's a yield shock that's coming. We also have many different forces at play that's trying to hold markets and Bitcoin and crypto down.

01:25 So, let's talk about it. Let's talk about everything that's going on in the space right now. All right, let's do it, guys. Welcome, welcome, welcome. We are starting out a day unfortunately a little bit lower than yesterday. Uh but overall we're going sideways. But you could see we're at 767. We were actually above 80 or close to 80,000 at one point.

02:01 796 but yeah we're going sideways which isn't a really bad thing at this point. And I know we're all waiting for that next leg up. I am too. But going sideways, that's the name of the game. Hey, we've been going sideways for nine months now. [clears throat] What's another month or two? Today, the US market is opening up red. That's to be expected because we have a lot of macro stuff that we're dealing with.

02:37 As for the yield I was talking about, 10-year yield rises to highest level since 2007. It's like 20 years. Okay. 10 10 year yield is now over 5%. I don't again I I I don't recall that you know uh because I wasn't really studying markets as much as I am now 20 years ago. But yeah, I guess it happened 20 years ago. But like I since I've started doing this, I have not seen that happen.

03:12 And obviously the 20 year or 30 year or even higher. Right now no one wants those IUs, those bonds, okay, those yields. People are afraid. What's the point of getting them if fiat currency or USD is going to go belly up? The whole thing is going to collapse upon itself. And plus, as yield continues to go higher, if you do buy, they become worthless, right?

03:41 Because in another 10 years, if the 10-year yield is at 6 or 7%, good luck trying to sell your tenure at 5%. Right? So, right now, we got this issue. And it's not just the US. Japan, UK, other countries are having the same problem. [snorts] And we haven't seen oil and treasury yield move this closely in 7 years. We know that oil is ticking upwards too.

04:11 And that's mostly due to the war situation. But yeah, it's no good when both are going up at the same time. So today is going to be volatile. Okay. leading up to tomorrow. Today the FCC meeting starts, the two-day meeting starts, and tomorrow is the pre press conference. Unfortunately, we are locked in with high oil prices, with high bond yields, right?

04:50 They're about to go higher because there's a 92.5% chance there will be a rate hike tomorrow. And this will be very unfortunate. We've been talking about cuts all year. We had a few cuts and then we were talking about more cuts and suddenly we had no more cuts and now we have completely reversed and we're talking about hikes and it's not just with this meeting.

05:17 The next meeting too 96%. And then the one after that is 98.8% 8% chance and then the one after that 99 point I mean it is looking bad right now. Okay, this curve is looking like we want to move up for the rest of basically [laughter] 2027 too until probably tops out around September October. Uh it's looking bad right now. The good thing is markets seems to have priced us in already because you would figure like yesterday today we would have fallen a lot more.

05:55 So markets does seem like they have priced us in. However, there are a lot of prominent economists that warn that the Fed may be making a serious mistake. While while the economy is still rocky and plus inflation is artificial right now, temporary because of the war and oil being up. So moving rates up right now may be a mistake, a giant mistake. We know that Trump and Vance and administration has been pushing for cuts, not hikes.

06:42 That's the reason why this guy was appointed four cuts. And now with his second of OMC meeting, he's forced to hike. Maybe there's something drastic that's going to happen today or tomorrow or today and tomorrow as they're talking. Maybe they do decide, hey, I don't we don't care what the the percentages are. We're just going to hold. That would be unprecedented.

07:10 But it would send shock waves to the markets. If it happened in a good way, we would see the biggest pump that we probably have haven't seen for 20 years or something. Um, it would be amazing, but I don't think that's going to happen. The chance of that are probably quite low, but we will see. See, this is what markets and Bitcoin is facing. Despite all this, we're holding very well, going sideways, like I said, which is pretty amazing.

07:45 You don't really see that. Um, so [sighs] yeah, what else? something outside of this. Uh, US confirmed for the first time that we have deployed weapons in space. I thought there was like some kind of neutrality, but I guess not. So now the US, our space force, has confirmed that we do have weapons in space. So we'll see what happens. how China and Russia reacts to this news.

08:32 I think it was always speculated we did, but now it's confirmed. And I don't know what kind of weapons, if they're missiles or like laser weapons, you know, things that we see. It wouldn't be a bad idea if we had a planetary like, you know, weapon system to protect us from aliens, even though it would probably be very useless. Missiles in space take forever.

08:58 And if any alien ship could actually get here to Earth, they'll be using some advanced shielding or or laser guns or some kind of weapon weaponry that's way better than ours. Um, but that's off topic. But yeah, I saw that and I did see this too. This is more relevant than aliens, I guess. But uh Trump called in to the all in podcast conference. He called in while Jensen when was on stage talking about AI and video.

09:37 He called him and then Jensen put him on the microphone and he actually said some stuff about AI and he does he's not a fan of Daario calling it, you know, trying to be the the poster boy of safety and he says America needs to continue forward and we can't lose this AI race. So kind of kind of wild but but I do agree we can't can't lose to another country when it comes to AI but also agreed there should be some regulations make sure safety protocols are followed and then we're not going to have we're not creating

10:20 another Skynet HDR I'll I'll answer that in Q&A remind me of that and that would be a that would be a downgrade in my opinion. Um yeah. All right, moving on. Distracted this morning. A lot of different things happening. Uh what else is going on? Well, ETF inflow outflow. Yesterday we reversed plus 160 million. So good. And look at ETH plus 121 million.

11:04 ETH has been on a roll. Look at that. Look at all that inflow. Okay. Even more so than Bitcoin. I mean, a lot less red for ETH. So, a lot of people coming in. Soul 11 million, XRP plus 1 million. Good reversal yesterday. We'll see if that continues today with all the scariness that's going on. and pre FOM FOMC press conference. But like I've been saying, this is the reason why we've been coming off from bottom and we're recovering because the cap rotation is coming back in, right?

11:40 So overall pretty good. But unfortunately, we did have a lot of longs get liquidated. 146 million. Actually, it's a lot higher than that. Lot higher than that. 320 million to be precise. So unfortunately more on the long side than the short side. We need to push upwards. But yeah, this happens every single time. We have these small little movements like just a few percentage coins, one or two%.

12:11 And somehow we have massive liquidations. Just imagine how many people are throwing a 50x 100x longs. That's the only way to get liquidated. We didn't even move like a 3% So even like 33% 30% leverage can't get you liquidated. It has to be something crazy. This is how much money is out there being gambled by people, right? If you want to throw in some 2x, 3x for long term because you feel like we're recovering, fine.

12:43 Don't throw your 50x or 100x. You you're going to get liquidated even just with small movements. It makes no sense. We need more shorts to be liquidated so we can get more short squeezes to drive us higher. That's what we're looking for. Anyways, yeah, this is what it's looking like right now. You could see we touched upon 76. Cleared out a little more leverage here, but we got a lot to clear out around the 778 mark, right?

13:17 And yesterday, that's what we did. We we cleared out the leverage on the upside. Now we're clearing out the leverage on the downside, but overall if you zoom out, we're going sideways. Now the other thing we're facing is this. Today is supposed to be the big day whether or not Senate is going to vote on a clarity act. I don't know when we're going to get word, but odds are very unlikely.

13:44 even yesterday. Seems like many opposed it and just will not will not approve. So, most likely it's not going to get done today. But like I've been saying, I don't think I think this is to be expected. I don't think anyone really thinks that was going to pass today. And I don't think it's I don't think this is going to be given up regardless. One way or another, we're going to get Clarity Act vote.

14:12 We're going to get approved. There's a lot of things happening right now. Democrats seem to want to hold this back for whatever reason as a political play before midterms, right? But you know what? All of our agencies are already pro crypto. SEC is pro- crypto. CFTC is pro- crypto. So when you have our major agencies that are pro- crypto, pro- innovation, pro America, you know, clear act doesn't really mean all all that much.

14:49 It's more of a symbol at this point in my opinion, but I think one way or another we're going to get those rules in Clarity Act. Mostly they're they're around stable coins, a yield. I think we get those approved even without the Clarity Act. But we will see. We will see what happens. If we do somehow get it voted upon and approved, that would be a huge catalyst obviously, but doesn't seem like it's likely today.

15:21 We'll get it eventually, just probably not today. What else? Strive adds 469 Bitcoin to reach 25,000. Okay, great. Treasury company still loading up. And as for charts, you know, we just got done with the death cross and now we're making golden crosses, which is good. These are on uh you know short-term times timets but sometimes we mirror these previous reversals or downtrends right uh these patterns are very similar they may not be exact but very similar and this one is comparing us to 2022 recovery when we hit

16:19 $15,000 when we went below below 20,000, hit 15,000. And at that point, people were calling for minus 10,000. There's always doomsayers that come out and say, "Well, Bitcoin is going to go below 10K or go back to 3K." Just like when we hit our 60, people are claiming that we're going to go back to 40s or 30s. You always have a lot of doomsayers, but Bitcoin always picks itself back up.

16:50 That's what we're doing right now. Uh, this is looking at a squeeze with Ballinger bands. So, something's about to happen. Okay. And we're on a bottom of it. So, that's good. So, we're getting a squeeze, a potential squeeze to upside soon. It's funny how that looks, but yeah, it's got to be patient, hold, and DCA. like Bitmine. Bitmine's been dcinging a lot of ETH and now they're projected to make a third of a billion dollars just from staking rewards.

17:41 That's crazy. That's crazy. A billion. If you tie that at three, just holding by it, holding three years will get them a billion dollars in revenue. That's amazing. That's amazing. And of course, if ETH continues to go up, Tom Lee is going to look like a genius, maybe even more so than Sailor. the power of holding uh Salana transactions got three times bigger allowing more bytes now.

18:16 So Salana is upgrading at a crucial time and I think they're going to do very well in this this recovery cycle that we're going to go through or we are in already I would argue. Uh outside of that, another exchange Coinx sees operations at 9 years. That's like four exchanges now. Four exchanges that are seizing operations. That's a lot. These are all like the smaller guys, but some are, you know, mostly overseas.

18:55 Some have been pretty pretty, I guess, decent volume, but now they're closing one after another after another. can't withstand crypto winter. All right, that's pretty much it. Overall, red day minus 300 for DAO. Look at this headline. Will AI really destroy humanities? Okay. Usa, Canadian computer scientist. Um, so what what is he saying? My concern with AI companies current attempts to mitigate misalignment is that these efforts may only hide it by rewarding and selecting AIs that cheat without getting caught.

20:08 We should certainly continue research towards better monitoring AIs. Okay, so that he didn't really say anything. Joffrey 10% chance was not unreasonable. No one really knows how to give a sensible estimate. AI system could design very nasty biological viruses and long computer viruses and commit commit devastating cyber attacks. There's countless other ways to get rid of us if it wanted to.

20:38 We have to figure out how to design it so it doesn't want to. We have two possible futures. One where we figure out how to deal with the dangers before they got out of control. The other where we don't. Yeah. So, it's a real threat. [laughter] [snorts] It's a real threat we should take seriously. All right, let's do some uh Q&A. Man, some of these uh some of these stocks are doing no good today.

21:10 Micro Strategy. Micro Strategy down 5%. Robin Hood down 5%. Coinbase down five 6%. Ouch. Oh, HP's up. Dell's up. Dell's alltime high right now, man. Look at that. I bought some Dell. So good. And Michael Dell is I think the second richest person on our planet now. I think he exceeded uh Bezos too. It's kind of crazy how Dell so successful. I guess uh today tech is recovering a little bit other than like the exchanges.

22:06 Soul still holding at 100 which is good. ETH is barely below 2500 and Bitcoin is not showing up for some reason. There we go. All right, let's do some Q&A. Carl the Moon and CryptoKit had their YouTube channel removed banned. Why is that suspicious before the Clarity Act? Uh I met those both of those guys before. Um they're very linked. CryptoKit is like his like protege or whatever.

23:12 So, if they were if they both got banned, it could be because of that. I don't know why they got banned, but I don't think it has anything to do with the Clarity Act. Uh, someone asked about going from uh the Super Chat HDR gaming channel asked about going from 458 to a Huracan Spider. That's a downgrade. Performance is probably upgrade, but 458s are going up like crazy, man.

23:42 Like crazy. That's all like the very last the last very desirable Ferrari because the last V8 natural aspirate V8. Um so I would I would definitely keep the 458. I would not buy that Huracan Spider. In fact, if I had a 458, I would not really trade it for anything. I think in a few years that could be, you know, it could have last time I was looking at it, it's like approaching 500,000.

24:13 Spiders are even more. One day it'll be a million dollars for that car, which is insane. Even my car, I have the F8. It's the last non-hybrid V8 Ferrari. It is turbocharged, but um even that is going up. If I sell that right now, I would definitely make money. So that's a good advant good advantage of buying exotic cars is the they're very desirable, the good ones at least.

24:58 I got more people tuned in today. What what is uh what is up with that? A sudden tick uptick in watchers. Why is it when I'm trying to stream on uh Oh, there we go. It is streaming. I got two viewers. I'm uh I'm streaming on kick, too. Got two viewers. Yay. >> [sighs] >> How many viewers do I have an axe? I can't tell. Uh, I start out at 60 50 60 maybe YouTube recommendation is finally working again.

26:19 Now I'm up to 1,600 people watching right now. Usually it's like only 1,00 1,200. Maybe YouTube fixed their recommendation engine again. [sighs] Or maybe everyone else is getting banned except me. I don't know. L Flander. Someone just said that. No idea why. I am not mining. No mining or my earlier endeavors, I guess, uh when I first started, but I haven't been mining for a long time.

27:36 I'm I'm quite excited about what's next for Clash. I don't want to announce it yet, but there's there's a few things I'm working on. one is going to be very very very very cool, very hot. People are gonna love it. Especially the deans that's coming up the clash score and clash holders. There's something big that's coming as well. So, [snorts] I'll just leave it at that.

28:10 be very advantageous to hold Clash to have a very high score coming up. And obviously I'm still I'm still working on this really immersive world game as well that I'm I'm thinking that's going to do very well. But the other games still trying to improve front line. I think there's going to be a big upgrade today. There's just so much stuff more upgrades coming to Clash Picks.

28:44 Yeah, when we come up and people pay attention to this project, they're going to be wild because it's going to be so complete. We have fastest from everything and they're all connected together beautifully and utilizes AI and hits everything that people care about. So, it's going to be glorious when we come back. Kenny, that's good. More people the better.

29:30 Yeah, today like our frontline game, the FPS game. Um, maybe another hour or so, I'll I'll release the new update. But yeah, front line is going to be improved drastically. The play now feature is going to get a lot better. And we already got Clash Jam, which I think is awesome. People have people that grew up with NBA Jam, that's a modern version of it.

29:59 I think is really fun. And Angry Crypto, Clash Cart, and all these classic games. They're really good. You don't have to download anything. It's all playable on the browser on your phone. Yeah. And I'm mentioning the leaderboard. This measures everyone um are in the ecosystem that hold Clash, that hold our NFTts that have been predicting on Clash Pics that have been making, you know, asking questions or pulling up charts or using Ask Clash.

30:36 Everything is scored and tallied. And this is going to be very, very important. People that are high up are going to be very satisfied about what's to come next. Any thoughts about iPhone do? No, no thoughts. I It's not like we haven't had flip phones before. [snorts] It's just a new shape. I don't know if people are going to like the new shape or not.

31:39 [snorts] The Z Flip from Samsung was already pretty good. So, I don't know. It's Apple. You always have these Apple fanatics. You know, they'll buy anything Apple releases. Uh so, I'm sure it'll do well, but I don't know how useful it will be. You haven't seen me in a long time. I'm here every day. [snorts] Maybe you should just tune in more. Yeah, [snorts] I do see a big uptick today.

32:41 About 10% 20% more today than normal. So, I don't know why that is. Maybe the other channels that got banned or they redid their recommendation engine. I don't I don't know. But little bit higher today than normal, which is good. It's not really normal. This is bare market numbers. And when it's hot, the numbers are way better. Do you agree with various chart analysis saying that if we don't make a cycle low in October then we confirm to start a bull market?

33:48 No, I don't I don't agree with any of the chart analysis. All of them are BS. [snorts] Now that we have AI, I have more certainty that all charting is basically BS. Okay, here's why. We have all these fancy indicators like what I show on my screen at MACD RSI, stochastic RSI. We have all these fancy levels, moving averages. All right, we got key levels, moving averages, Ballinger bands, EMA ribbons, VAP, dema, you name it.

34:22 weekly, high, low. We have these are just like the well-known ones, but there are like a million of them out there. Okay. So, you figure all this with all this intelligence, [cough] [clears throat] you got to you could use you use all that and win at trading. I've spent a lot of time using AI over the last eight months [snorts] and uh recently on and off I've been trying to create this trading bot that utilizes all this intelligence everything every single thing that you could think of to try to create a trading bot

35:09 and to include patterns, you know, stuff like that. everything. It tried everything and back tested it and every conclusion is you lose versus holding [laughter] in in vast majority of the cases by trading you would end up at a loss. And in the in the scenarios where you don't end up in a loss and you're in a P, you know, you're in green and you gain, it's way less than just buying and holding.

35:46 I've tried every single frontier AI. I've tried for hours and hours different combinations, different things, different time frames, five minutes, 10 minutes, 15 minutes, hour, daily, weekly, all of them ended up making less money or losing money versus just holding. Like for Bitcoin, back tested it for six months. Just going back to the beginning of the year, back tested to a year, three years since 2020, six years.

36:26 Nothing beat just holding Bitcoin. If you're trading Bitcoin, you end up losing money. So, this is the reason why all these charters and all these guys that say, "Well, this must happen for this to happen." No, it's all nonsense. It's all nonsense. Most of the things that we see that are driving Bitcoin or these cycles actually have a lot to do with or I would argue everything to do with external factors like business cycle, liquidity, rates, yield, you know, these things.

37:01 Okay, those are what are driving Bitcoin, not the indicators, not anything. Is it just you think about it, what makes Bitcoin go up or down is really just money flowing in and out and those things are affected by all these external factors. [snorts] Now granted, if you're trying to trade like shortterm, maybe like in the next 10 minutes, next hour, you know, these indicators would be useful, but long term, nothing beats holding.

37:40 Holding in DC, it honestly is unbeatable. Of course, I'm going to keep trying though. And we keep trying to create a trading bot that takes in external factors, you know, things that can move markets like FOMC decisions or something yield decisions or whatever decisions, right? Pays more attention to social media and uh you know macro stuff. I think if you include all that in with some of these patterns and indicators, then it can work.

38:27 Haven't gone that deep yet. And you put prediction markets in there, too. I think then you could have something. It ran. No matter how smart you think you are at charting, you're not going to be smarter than than 10 of the most sophisticated AI that knows everything about charting. You're just not going to convince me otherwise. Man, the recommendation engine must be good today.

39:46 Even now, you figure after me rambling for 10 minutes, the views will be dropping. But we're holding 1500 people. Clarity Act, pass or fail, it's not going to go through today. Guaranteed. It's like there's very little chance of it. J Molly, appreciate that. I wish more people would take advantage of the assass membership. I mean, I've been very generous and, you know, basically fronting the whole thing, very costly, but trying to give more to the community and obviously to Clash.

40:34 I mean, we got hundreds and hundreds of people using Ask Clash every day, but just using it for free. Just they don't want to sign up for a membership. And most people in Clash still don't have a membership. So, I I don't even get that. So that's my only frustration. It's like it's such a good product and now I have integrated with Clash Pix and you know with the gaming hub that we have.

41:00 Uh yet there are still people that ignore it or or don't want it because they're too cheap to get a membership even though they use it every day and it's costing costing me money and not really helping Clash by not subscribing. Uh so that is one thing I don't quite get. 90 and 95% of people who trade lose money. I work in the tax office seeing firsthand it's true.

41:52 Even the AI pointed out like studies saying that you know very various studies have studied like countries and traders and and uh and done all these analysis on the top traders or people that trade and in almost every case they lose all the all the trader influencers. Okay, that look like they're so smart. They got their money from affiliates, from you signing up to their course or through their exchange links.

42:28 They didn't get rich by trading. All of them in crypto. All of them got rich from affiliate like affiliate referrals, not through trading. So I mean in case there's any doubt about that. Anyways, I shouldn't knock it too much. If you want to trade, great. It's fine. If you want to learn, great. It's fine. But just be careful because people get wiped out from leverage every single day.

43:10 And it's mostly from these people that are trying to trade. If you're trying to swing trade, like catch something, you know, while it's going up, that's one thing. But if you're trying to day trade, it's very tough. And if you're playing with like 50x leverage, 100x leverage, you're guaranteed to lose money. Guaranteed. So just be careful with that.

44:12 >> [snorts] [snorts] >> prefer a car the cycle. All the new Ferraris and Lamborghinis I have no interest in. They all look horrible. It's like the designers that they have ran out of ideas and now they're designing shitty looking cars. Like I don't know, Kia cars look better than the new Lambos. Like the new Lambo Tamario or Team Mario or whatever you call it, can't even pronounce it.

45:03 Like does not look better in a Huracan. And the new Ferrari just don't get me started about Ferrari. That's why the older ones, okay, not not even classic, just the ones from like, you know, 10 years ago are all going up because they're so much more desirable. All right, I think that's it. That is it. Overall, today's a little bit weaker, little bit weaker than yesterday, but it's to be expected.

45:51 Pre FOMC press conference, a giant possibility of a hike coming, right? Clarity Act not looking so great today. Yield and oil spiking. I mean, we got so many things. So many things that are going against us right now, but you know what? We're holding strong. That's what we're doing. All right. So, smash the like, subscribe to the channel. Have a good one, guys. Go check out Clash. That's it. Take care. Bye-bye.