This Crypto Bull Market will be So Big, Major Altcoins Could 12X (Data) Transcript, AI Summary & Key Points

00:39 Now, because you've been watching  the show, we're going into what is going to be crypto's biggest bull market and  probably crypto's first real bull market. Yeah, I said it. I think that this is crypto's  first real bull market. What I'm going to show you today is just how big this real  first bull market for crypto can actually be. So I figure there's no point in me trying to  do a whole show about Bitcoin being at $85,500, but let's just look at how big crypto's first  real bull market can actually be.

01:06 So listen, if that makes sense to you, if  you want to stick around for that, I promise you the numbers are quite big. In  fact, let me break it down for you. In fact, no, I'm not going to break it down for you.  You've got to stick around for the show. What I need you to do is smash the like button if  you're not already subscribed to the channel. If it's your first time here, my name is Crypto Man  Ran.

01:26 I've been a crypto bull, even in some bear markets. I've been a crypto bull, unfortunately,  but I've been a crypto bull for now 13 years. Thanks for being here for 13 years. And today I'm  going to show you just why I think that this is crypto's first real bull market, and I'm going to  show you exactly how big this bull market can be. So I want you to work with me here for a  little bit.

01:45 This is the chart of Bitcoin's bull markets. I'm going to talk about Bitcoin  for a few minutes, but really I'm talking about altcoins. When I talk about bull markets,  we can celebrate a Bitcoin bull market, but I don't think that this Bitcoin bull market  is going to be anything to celebrate. I've said it a few times before. I think that  this bull market is actually an altcoin, or a crypto bull market.

02:08 And it's  the first real crypto bull market. So let me show you what I mean. I've taken  Bitcoin and I've put it on the monthly. And if you look at Bitcoin on the monthly, if you  look at the first bull market, the first bull market gave us 10,700% returns. So if you take  top to bottom on Bitcoin, it gave us about a 10,000% return. But forget about it.

02:26 That market  was very, very slow. It was very, very small. If you look at the next bull market on Bitcoin, it  started over here and it went all the way up here, and that gave us about an 18x return. So if  you take bottom to top, I think the bottom was about 3,000. Let's actually do it a  little bit more accurately here. So we'll literally just delete that, or let's just get  rid of that line over here, and let us take the bottom to the top over here.

02:57 Here we go. Let's  go to the bottom. The bottom here is $3,000, just $4,000-ish. And we go all the way to  the top, you've got about a 1,600% return. And the next bull market gave us a six or  seven X return. So here you've got a 100X, here you've got a 15X, and here you've got  a 6X return in the Bitcoin bull market. So if you just go by the last two bull  markets, you can kind of say that this one was about 2.5 to 3X.

03:26 The amount  that Bitcoin moved up was about 2.5 to 3X. Bitcoin's a much bigger asset. It's a much  heavier asset. So I think realistically what we can say is that probably if we do  half of that or maybe even a third of that, that gives us a 200% return in Bitcoin.  And if you kind of draw that line up here, let's just quickly take that line and draw  that number all the way up to about 200% from where we are today, or from the bottom, you're  going to get to about here.

04:00 Okay, good. But you have to go a bit higher. Hold on, let's maybe  close that just to make it a bit higher. Okay, we can basically say that maybe Bitcoin will  double, maybe we'll go to a $250,000 Bitcoin. That's about a 3X from here. A 3X  from here gives us exactly $250,000. Okay, but our thesis is slightly  different. Our thesis is that this market is going to be an altcoin  bull market.

04:28 And I've shown you guys this chart many times. This is the chart of  altcoins, or "others," versus Bitcoin. Now, for those of you who don't know what  others is, others is the altcoins, excluding the top 10 altcoins. So you take out  Solana, you take out Sui, you take out Ethereum, you take out the top 10 altcoins. And this is  the chart of those altcoins against Bitcoin.

04:53 Now, what you can see is a couple of things.  The first thing that you can see is that when crypto launched, these other altcoins had a run.  The run was disappointing. It was the ICO run. That was a very disappointing run, and that market  basically collapsed. And we then had another run, which was the DeFi summer run. All the  DeFi altcoins ran and ultimately most then collapsed and went back to zero.

05:14 But ultimately what you can see is that we're in a slightly upward trend when you  talk about the altcoins against Bitcoin. So what we are basically saying in  this chart is that the altcoins, even though they haven't performed  very well, they are in a slight upward trend against Bitcoin. So if you take  altcoins and compare them to Bitcoin, they are in a slight upward trend.

05:37 And you also  see, right now we're in the bottom of the channel. Now, if this theory holds true, altcoins have  finally found product market fit. And we'll talk about what that product market fit is, but what  this chart is basically saying is that there is a chance that if this chart were to follow the  same pattern, then effectively this chart does something like this.

06:00 And this is a very rough  drawing. So if that chart does something like that, the question is, how big is this move? And  if you take this move over here, you say that the altcoins are going to outperform Bitcoin by about  six or seven X. So it starts off at two and a half million and it goes to 17 million. So we can say  that there's probably a 7X between two and a half million and 17 million.

06:26 And so we can say that the  altcoins are going to outperform Bitcoin by 7X. But we also said in the previous chart  that Bitcoin is going to 2X. So if Bitcoin is going to 2X and the altcoins  are going to outperform Bitcoin by 7X, that means that your favorite altcoin  probably has a 14X return. Okay, so you're basically talking about  altcoins on average having a 14X return.

06:55 So let me get to that number. What is my  expectation? A very, very, very conservative expectation, incredibly conservative, for  Bitcoin in this cycle for me is a $200,000, $250,000 Bitcoin. Let's just say a 2X Bitcoin. I  also believe that the altcoins, as per this chart, are going to outperform Bitcoin by 7X. That means  that your favorite altcoin could do a 14X return, or in general altcoins are going  to do a 14X return against Bitcoin.

07:30 Now, I'm going to talk about the caveat. The  caveat is that over here in 2021, we had a 5X of the altcoins relative to Bitcoin. And earlier  we also had a 7X of the altcoins outperforming Bitcoin. So on that axis, this number doesn't seem  so absurd. But I do want to remind you that even though the altcoins in general went up 7X against  Bitcoin, and here they went up 5X against Bitcoin, some altcoins did 1,000X, 2,000X, 1,200X.

08:02 You  had altcoins moving and moving and moving. And so now the big question is, what is it that  could take the altcoin market from here all the way up to here? And the truth is that right  now, a lot of people are believing that we are in a bull market. A lot of people are like,  yeah, we're in a bull market, it's alt season, and everyone's getting euphoric.

08:28 But in  July, when the markets looked like this, and I'm going to go back to July just to remind  you where we were in July when we talked about it, July was smack bang in the middle of  all the sideways action for Bitcoin. People were waiting for another leg down in July.  And somewhere in July, I turned around and I said, we're going to have the biggest altcoin season  ever, and it's going to be driven by AI.

08:53 Here's the receipt. I said it on the 28th of July.  And again, I'm going to go back to the chart. The chart on the 28th of July basically is  here. I just want to remind you where we were. We had been chopping sideways for 57 days.  Everyone was expecting another leg down. And I basically came out with a tweet on that  day and I said, here's the part that you guys are not seeing.

09:22 All asset markets will trade 24/7,  365. All markets will be immediately settled on chain. And the third part is, I said that humans  won't be trading them. Instead, it will be 100 billion agents trading at a frequency that we  can't even imagine. And all those fees will be captured by crypto-related protocols. And this was  in the pits and in the midst of the bear market.

09:47 Now, that is what you call conviction, because  back then I had a thesis, and my thesis was that all trading of all assets will actually be done  by AI agents, and that those agents will need to settle their transactions, and those transactions  will actually need to happen on blockchain. Now, remember, this was in the midst of the  bear market. When you look at this chart, it actually really starts to make sense,  because you're kind of saying, hold on a second, if there is going to be this huge, agentic economy  and

10:12 they are actually going to use crypto rails, and the crypto rails aren't really going to  be Bitcoin, it's going to be altcoins that actually outperform Bitcoin, then maybe this  is actually something that is really possible. Last night I met with Raoul Pal, and I'm going  to release this episode with Raoul probably in the next 24 to 48 hours. But I want you to  listen to what he said around the AI trade and why we can't stop the AI trade.

10:37 I promise you  it's going to get very, very, very deep here, and you're going to realize just why we're about to  see the biggest crypto bull market of our lives. It's the most powerful technology we've ever  discovered. It is the big one. We've just created intelligence. Not only that, all intelligence that  we were able to understand and measure was always generated on carbon substrate: humans, animals,  plants, everything that generates some form of intelligence.

11:05 We've now jumped substrates  to silicon, and it's a million times faster, which is why we're in shock with how fast  this is moving. The substrate of intelligence. We're now putting electricity through sand,  generating super intelligence. It's bananas, it's crazy. But this race is so big that nobody  can be allowed to lose. And now I'm talking about the race between China and the US.

11:30 Imagine a world  where China would win this race because the US has slowed down by regulation or whatever it is.  Well, then China, because it compounds the rate of intelligence per joule of energy, it's doubling  every 4.2 months, so if you're out of the game for a while and China's still accelerating, you're  three years behind, you can never ever catch up.

11:56 So what you end up with is one nation state or  sovereign state with the most powerful technology. So he talks about why the AI race  is so important, why everybody has to win the AI race. And I think people  are starting to realize that. In fact, today, Trump is actually meeting Xi, and they're  going to talk about a lot of things, but also AI. Also, if you think about this formula, and  you think about how GDP growth is actually population growth plus productivity growth plus  debt growth, and you look at the US

12:19 population, the US population basically went from looking  like this to looking like this. You realize that the one thing that can actually fix the  productivity is a population of AI agents. And so up until now, everybody's  been focused on the AI trade. If you look at the interest over time,  basically you see that up until now, the trade has been so focused on the AI trade.

12:46 No one's paid attention to crypto. No one's paid attention to Bitcoin. And that was one of the  things that really made the bear market much harder than normal. Because not only were we  in the traditional one-year crypto bear market, but at the same time, the NASDAQ and  the AI trade were running ahead of us. In fact, if you look at the AI trade  versus the crypto trade over time, we were doing okay until October  10th.

13:12 And then after October 10th, crypto collapsed. And this was a very painful  time where the AI trade actually ran and the crypto trade actually collapsed. And  if you kind of look at where we are, this is on an axis of 100, and this is about 35.  So this outperformed by about two thirds. Okay, that's a massive, massive, massive gap for  stocks to outperform the crypto asset class.

13:40 So the question is now, why are we so excited  now? What's basically happening now? And the truth is that I think up until now, people have  been focused around the AI infrastructure. How are we going to get these agents to work? How  are we going to get enough agents and enough power for these agents to work? Do we have  enough data centers for these agents to work?

14:01 That's what people have been focused about.  Can we build enough data centers? Can we build enough frontier labs? Can we build enough  LLMs? Can we build enough compute power? Can we build enough energy? Great. You've  got all of that. That's built. And that's priced into this line chart over here, which  is the NASDAQ, or effectively the AI trade. Okay, but when you have these agents, what  are these agents going to do?

14:22 And how many of these agents are there basically going to  be? So let's think about it like this. Today you've got 8 billion humans on earth. Now, I don't  know how many of those are actually productive, but I would take a guess that about 2 billion or  maybe 3 billion of those 8 billion are actually productive. Let's be generous and say that  4 billion of the people in the world are basically productive.

14:46 It sounds a bit high, but  in fact, let's ask ChatGPT: how many of the world population are actually working and productive?  Give me your guess in the comments. Actually, let's see. How many people in the world's  population are actually working and productive? I want to just show you how crazy these  numbers actually get. So I've asked ChatGPT, and remember ChatGPT can lie.

15:17 I've said, how  many people in the world are actually working and productive? It says it is 8.2 billion people,  67%, and so on. So in absolute terms, give me a number. In absolute terms, we're talking about 3.6  to 3.7 billion humans are economically productive. According to this study over here, it  basically says they expect more than 1 billion AI agents to be deployed by 2029.

15:41 So  by 2029, which is two and a half years away, they're talking about 1 billion AI agents  being deployed, which is 25% of the entire human workforce. But it's not going to be humans  working at human pace. It's going to be AI agents, and they are going to be doing roughly 217  billion actions a day. Imagine you've now got, by 2029, another billion active agents and  they are doing 217 billion actions a day.

16:18 In fact, if you look at the numbers, they're  talking about AI being projected to generate $22.5 trillion in economic value between 2021  and 2031. So you're talking about billions of AI agents doing billions of transactions to a point  where you actually can't even fathom it. They talk about the Fortune 500 companies having  150,000 agents each. So imagine, in 2028, which is not a long way away, Fortune 500  companies actually having 150,000 agents each.

16:52 Now, all this compute, all this stuff, what is  this all about? It's all about one thing. It's all about agents. What are these agents going to be  doing? These agents are going to be transacting. So all this compute, this whole run that we have  had right now in the NASDAQ, and this whole AI revolution up until now, has basically been an  infrastructure revolution.

17:10 Can we build enough power? Can we create enough chips? Can we create  everything? Why? So that we can have AI agents. When we have those AI agents, what are they  going to do? They're going to be transacting. They're going to be transacting between one  another. And I think that's the part that most people don't understand. And Raoul  Pal actually broke it down very well.

17:31 He basically said the total addressable market  is unlike anything we've ever seen before, because these agents are going to be  doing transactions 24/7. In fact, here, you can listen to what he said. I am going to be  dropping this interview in the next day or two. The agentic economy needs a coordination  layer for value and identity and other things.

17:55 Blockchains really aren't built for humans  in the end when you look at it. It is the new ability for the internet to run itself  with some accountability, a ledger system and all of that. It's kind of made for this whole  thing that's happening. So agents being sort of semi-autonomous, they come with costs. You run  agents, it costs electricity and compute, so they have to pay for goods and services, electricity  and compute, but they also might be acting on your behalf.

18:31 So Ran asks his agent to go and plug  into his wallet and trade some stuff, do whatever, fine. But sooner or later, Ran will say, hey,  build me a business in this, and off it goes. It's now acting semi-autonomously under your guidance.  But eventually we'll have agents building their own businesses, using crypto markets to raise  capital. We've seen that with meme coins.

18:47 You can coalesce capital really fast in crypto.  It can find an idea, raise capital for it, exploit the idea, close the business. You can't  do that regularly. So this velocity happens fast, but also the payments. So if you start to see  the speed of payments, again, carbon, we're slow. So you had this theory all along, and the theory  is that we're going to have millions and billions of agents basically working.

19:22 And let's say, let's  be conservative, because I think this is a very conservative number, we're going to have a billion  agents by 2029. These billion agents are going to be doing 217 billion transactions, or actions,  basically per day. That's an exponential growth. You can't even imagine that kind of growth in the  number of transactions. One agent is going to do in one day more than 100,000 humans are going to  do in one day.

19:45 That's the number of transactions. And up until now, we've had this  thesis that we as crypto bros said, that all these transactions are going to be  cleared on crypto, are going to take place on crypto rails. That was the thesis. The thesis was  that when we created crypto, crypto was a syringe looking for a problem. A couple of years later, we  launched AI, and all of a sudden, we've got a use case.

20:14 And the use case is for all the agents  to basically be able to settle transactions. So, to settle transactions, this is  a report that came out yesterday, and it came out by BlackRock. And what  this report basically breaks down, this report is called "The Machine Native  Economy," and everything that we've basically suspected is actually put into a report.

20:38 And this report is absolutely astonishing. So what they talk about is AI and  everything else. But what they say is, agentic commerce requires machine native  payment rails. The rise of agentic AI and machine-to-machine payments will likely increase  demand for blockchains and other programmable payment infrastructure, stablecoins, native  crypto assets and other on-chain assets that can serve as machine native instruments for  payments and settlement across these rails.

21:13 So we had the suspicion that blockchain would  be the settlement rails for AI. And ultimately, now BlackRock has basically come out and  said, yes, we believe this. On top of that, what they said is, existing rails such as ACH  and card networks support substantial automation, although the onboarding requirements  and settlement economics can make them less suited to always-on, very low-value  transactions requiring programmable execution.

21:41 So basically what they're saying is, the new  AI infrastructure, which is going to be leaps and bounds ahead of where we are today,  exponentially ahead of where we are today, they basically said the quiet part  out loud. They basically said, look, we think that all the settlement is going  to take place on blockchain rails. And we also think that existing rails aren't going to be  suited.

22:01 They were very polite about it. They said their onboarding requirements and settlement  can make them less suited to all of that. So that's the report that basically came out  from BlackRock. It's a very interesting report. But essentially what they say is, machine native  transactions require purpose-built agentic payment protocols. As AI agents become more capable  and as their real-world applications expand, they increasingly demand payment and  asset infrastructure designed natively for machine speed commerce.

22:50 Crypto native  blockchain rails are particularly suited to high frequency subcent machine-to-machine  transactions that take place around the clock, including API calls, on-demand data, and  consumption-based compute. In parallel, modified traditional payment systems will remain important  for connecting agents with human operated businesses and consumers in business-to-business  machines and consumer-to-consumer machines.

23:20 So who will benefit? Basically what BlackRock  have said in this report is that the entire AI agent economy, the agent-to-agent economy,  will basically settle on blockchain rails. Who benefits? Stablecoins, native crypto  assets, tokenized real-world assets and other programmable instruments can support transactions  and digital ownership, including collateral use, with required granularity, on an always-on  basis.

23:42 More broadly, tokenization can provide standardized machine-readable  representations across asset classes, reducing bespoke integrations  across financial infrastructure. So basically they're saying everything  is going to be tokenized, and AI agents are going to be tokenizing all of these  things. And they basically break it down in this report over here.

24:08 And they show how the  agents are going to be able to execute workflows. So they then talk about the size of the market.  They talk about just how big this market is. They're showing Visa and MasterCard versus  stablecoins. And they're saying that ultimately, one of the biggest things here that's going  to win is the stablecoin infrastructure. So in a nutshell, agents speak a certain language.

24:32 Old rails can't price in a certain language. Probably stablecoins are going to be the  settlement layer. The rails are already built, and they talk about the layer one blockchains,  they talk about a whole lot of other things, but specifically they talk about the x402  settlement layer. And then they talk about something very, very important. They talk about  compute becoming collateral.

24:53 So imagine that an AI agent actually puts its own compute  power up as collateral for a specific loan, which basically means if it fails to pay the  loan, its compute power will actually shut down. These are just some of the demands for blockchain.  I'll give you another example around blockchain. The question is whether blockchain is going to  use the same time as we use, like EST and PST and SAST, or whether they'll just use a blockchain  block time.

25:22 So maybe instead of talking about what time the transaction took place, maybe  agents will just talk about the blockchain time on Solana. So we'll just start referring  to, hey, when did this happen? It happened during block 1847. Because agents don't know  day, they don't know night, they don't need to repeat the time every single day with a date,  because they're going to need much smaller times.

25:49 And so probably block times in blockchains  are much more suitable than actual times. And so, as Raoul says over here, he basically  says BlackRock actually gets it. He said, I wrote about it. He said, BlackRock gets it.  AI is machine-native intelligence. Crypto is machine-native money. Agents can't use  banks because they need blockchains. Stablecoins are the money they're going to  pay with, and compute becomes a tokenized asset class.

26:18 But they stop at money  and compute. The machine economy needs things that go far beyond that.  They need identity, contracts, attention, energy, information, and so  on. Everything eventually gets tokenized. So we've come full circle, because I  remember when I was here in 2017 and 2018, and just to give you an idea of what that looked  like on the charts, I was here when this was happening.

26:41 And when this little pump happened,  everyone said, well, why do you need a token? I actually wanted to zoom out so you guys can  actually see it. Why do you actually need a token? Everyone was talking about a token being a  swear word. Oh, you don't need a token for that, don't launch a token. Oh, you don't need a token  for that, why are you launching a token?

26:54 To now, basically everyone going, can we please launch  a token? Because that is the easiest way for the transactions to basically happen. Can we actually  launch a token for that? Why? Because ultimately, everything's going to get tokenized. Compute is  being tokenized. Agents are going to be tokenized. Energy is going to be tokenized. And everything  is going to be on these blockchain rails.

27:25 So if you're wondering how it is that we can get  a 14X return on altcoins, or if you doubt that we can get a 14X return on altcoins in this  cycle, then I think you're not seeing the big picture. And the big picture is that BlackRock  has basically just confirmed everything that we have been saying for a long time. Now, I must be  honest, I'd been saying it and I kind of hoped that someone would challenge me and say, you know  what, you're actually wrong.

27:50 The agents aren't going to settle on blockchain, they're going to  settle on some kind of other rails. But the truth is that now BlackRock has basically come out and  said, look, whatever the thesis that we've had, and I've had this thesis for quite a while, on  top of when I tweeted about it in the midst of the bear market, I've had the thesis for a very, very  long time: everything is going to be tokenized, everything is going to be on blockchain  rails, there's going to be billions and billions of AI agents, and

28:20 they're all going to  be settling transactions on blockchain rails. And when you think about that, and then you say,  okay, well, what's a 14X from here? Yes, I agree, Bitcoin, not as exciting. We'll get a 2X or we'll  get a 3X on Bitcoin. Maybe we'll go to $300,000 this cycle. I don't really care, because I'm here  to outperform Bitcoin by 7X. And so then you start