Is A 20-30% Dump Coming? (Here's The Level I'm Watching) Transcript, AI Summary & Key Points

00:00 Happy Monday, guys. So, it's important. We've  been nice and patient, still knowing that a new high on Bitcoin is not in. Okay. And we'll  be speaking around the pullback. Now, again, I'm going to bring a warning within today's  show: if we don't hold the first scenario, we are looking at possibly 20 to 30%  down within all coins. Now, again, I think these are vital buys, right?

00:19 I think  this is a huge opportunity for the next leg, when it's ready to actually make our way up  to the higher range. A leg that is actually double the size of the momentum we've seen  in altcoins over the last couple of weeks. So I've been here kind of screaming to say,  guys, there's a trap at any point. We've got to be careful. Okay, now we're starting to  get some warning signs.

00:38 So the first sign is obviously Bitcoin just breaking below 83. Okay,  but the one sign that I do want to speak on is the altcoins. Right, the altcoins are at this point  where they've still been performing pretty well recently, knowing that Bitcoin's been kind of  chopping around, right? But if this plays out here and we're actually losing this trend,  right, there's going to be a speed up and a catch-up move to the downside, right?

01:01 And one  that's going to catch many, many, many off guard. Now, what happens then is I turn  incredibly bullish, right? So, I want to speak around the pullbacks, the  two scenarios, right? The one scenario, which is a little bit less aggressive to the  downside, where buys are actually a lot sooner than what we think. And the second one is  quite an aggressive move to the downside and a big opportunity for the next legs up.

01:23 So guys,  smash the like button. Big stream today. Let's go. Fam, how are we doing? So guys, this  is a recording, basically shooting it just before it's about to drop. The reason  being is I've had a tough one. I lost a very important person in my life over the weekend.  So I just didn't want to put myself live in case emotions arrive. But yeah, a big shout  out to my uncle, a person that's very, very special to me.

02:05 The person that, when  I lost my dad a couple of years ago, took me in and has just been an incredible mentor and  person in my life. That's how I got to Cape Town. That's how we started the whole YouTube thing. But  nonetheless, I'm just going to miss him so much. And I think I just want to have a quick message as  a reminder that I ain't doing these things every day for Lambos and watches, right?

02:29 I've lost a lot  of people along the journey, and I do this every day to support and be there, and to achieve a  successful life together. My goal is to live long, to break the chain. It hasn't happened much  in my family. And we're here to make money and enjoy it together, but ultimately I want to create  a space where, if you need anyone, I'm here every day.

02:55 I'm online. I'll do a show, and I will be  there. There are times I've struggled a lot along the journey. You guys have kept me together. But  that's who you're looking at on the screen here. And through bulls and bears, we're only going to  get better and smarter, right? We call the market great at times. We'll call it wrong at times.  But what we're creating here is a movement and something that really matters.

03:15 So yeah, just  love you all. Thank you all for the support, and a massive shout out to my uncle.  Going to miss him. Okay, let's go. Okay, so let's jump into where we're at right  now. So the first thing I want to show you guys here is the weekly time frame. As you can see, we  had a nice bullish close when it came to Bitcoin. But what we're starting to see now  is markets starting to move down, right?

03:44 I go across and I see gold has really  tanked at the start of this week. I see that oil is looking aggressive, right? I see the  dollar is looking aggressive, right? The dollar is at the point of a possible breakout, right?  This thing needs to reject pretty soon. If not, the dollar is actually going to break into  highs that it hasn't been in for a while, right?

04:03 It's basically sitting at this  resistance here. And if it smashes through here, you're going to see quite a big,  aggressive dollar move to the upside, right? Which gets me to the point where we are going  to come into some supports now. Okay? And it's important for us to be ready, as those  are the bounce zones. But at the same time, right, we have to make sure that we're  also prepared for the worst scenario, right?

04:26 When markets actually want to go down. So here are the futures, just to show you guys  a couple of catalysts that are coming into play, to look at side by side with crypto. Here are  the futures, and as you can see, we basically lost a trend recently, specifically over the last  two weeks. We lost this trend over here. Okay, and we might actually see up to a 3 to 4% move  to the downside to the next supports.

04:45 Okay, now again, that's where we should bounce.  Okay, more supports are sitting down over here. So we have to keep that in mind.  Okay, we might actually see a bit of a squeeze in the dollar and more downside  in the markets, which means that yes, crypto has been holding incredibly well. Okay, but  we must also be aware of a speed up in Bitcoin. So going through the plays here, what we want to  see, okay, specifically on the weekly time frame here with Bitcoin, right, is that we actually  engulf pretty soon, right?

05:12 So we started off red, which is fine. We are coming into these weekly  supports here, right? I've spoken around the 80 to 82,000. Okay, we want to see a bounce there,  and we want to see the market react pretty well and actually start engulfing, turn green and  start pushing up again, right? That's what we want to see. What we don't want to see is a  bearish engulfing candle.

05:33 We don't want to see, by the end of this week, that this red candle is  actually bigger than the green candle. If that is so, we have to be prepared for Bitcoin to go  back down to the mid to low 70s. After that, we chase the 100, right? So, very bullish,  okay? But we must not be caught off guard. Now that gets me to the next point, right,  which is the dominance.

05:54 Now, if you look at the dominance here, right, dominance is basically  why the alts have still been moving. If we look at the last week in general, we've had a good couple  of altcoins catching up. Ones that weren't really pumping started pumping, right? Your Litecoins,  your Sui had a really good week as well. Bitcoin Cash had a good week. Perth had a good week.

06:13 Nia had another leg to the upside, right? So you still had the couple of altcoins that were  really ripping. And again, there's a formula. Go watch the video I dropped on Saturday on the  formula for catching altcoins nice and early. Okay, but nonetheless, right, we've  got to look at this now and see, okay, this is where the dominance is at now.  Okay, and there is a play now where dominance actually decides to go up over the next couple  of days.

06:35 Okay, the good sign with dominance, the great sign with dominance, is that on the  higher time frame I'm very bearish on it, right? With dominance over the next couple of weeks  and months, I'm seeing dominance really tank down. So therefore, I really think there  are going to be incredible altcoin runs, right? Huge opportunities. But on the short  time frame, on the mid time frame, we mustn't be surprised if this decides to go up.

06:57 Okay,  which means money now flies back into Bitcoin. Now, why will that happen? Right? If  we look at the previous move, Bitcoin was chopping around and alts were still being  released. But if Bitcoin gets to an area where it starts to decelerate pretty quickly, right,  or lose an important trend, what that does is, yes, people still want to make money on alts, but  people start looking at the picture of Bitcoin now and start jumping to safety, right?

07:22 And therefore,  when Bitcoin's pulling down and losing supports, right, a couple of days later... So just to  show you guys this chart here again, right, over the last 24 hours specifically, we started  losing some trends, okay, over here. And we know last week we lost this trend, right, which  is the important trend where I was saying, guys, I'm not seeing the strength just yet,  right?

07:40 When this starts to happen here, yes, you still have a weak dominance, but it  starts to catch the altcoins up slightly. Okay, now if we look at the altcoins as  a whole, altcoins have been moving. Okay, we actually put in a new high, which was good, but  we are still moving in this slow momentum. We're not trending anymore, right? We're not basically  moving in these fast directional moves.

08:00 We're basically chopping up. Now again, every altcoin  is in its own cycle. Some will go parabolic, but you look at it as a whole, right, at where  money is moving. This is the money moving into altcoins outside of Bitcoin and ETH, right?  And that has started to slowly slow down. And the concerning sign here, right, was this  rising wedge, right? If you look at previously, before altcoins moved, right, we  actually had a descending channel or wedge.

08:29 Right now, we're kind of doing that  little uprising type of move. So if Bitcoin loses enough of its support, it's going  to get to a point where alts lose support. And you can see where we are bouncing right  now is the 0.618. So there's an opportunity, and I'll speak about this now, of us  getting back in there. But if not, and we start losing these supports, you're  going to see an acceleration to the downside.

08:53 And that, for me, gets me back  to the Bitcoin dominance chart, where we could actually see a move up over  a couple of days, altcoins catching up to the downside and a speed-up in Bitcoin.  After that, guys, after that, I then see a huge opportunity of dominance tanking. And  altcoins will go through the play now, really, really, really going for a strong leg to the  upside.

09:14 There's a lot of great opportunities, but at the same time, we want to be prepared  for them and ultimately be in the major zones. So that gets me to the zones that we need to pay  attention to. We do have a good scenario in play now where there's not much more downside. We look  at this over here, maybe another 2% to 3% down on Bitcoin. Again, we'll see what the dominance does.

09:40 That might be a 5% to 10% move on a couple of altcoins to the downside. But this is a scenario  where it's like, okay, not much more blood. Secondly, one thing that is important is, since  this is coming into play here, we must not have too much of a FOMO aspect here. So if we look at  the 2024 cycle, we called the move to the upside. Trump came in, all these things.

10:10 We called it,  we caught it beautifully. Then I went bearish for about two weeks, and markets were still rallying a  bit, and everyone was kind of giving me crap. And then the drop happened. When the drop happened, it  was a 20% to 30% drop. We then said we're buying, and we bought the major supports. After that,  everyone was like, it was amazing. We had the limits, we caught it beautifully, everything.

10:31 We  started to rally up, and we failed to put in a new high. And when that new high did not trigger,  we actually went down into a bear market after. So why I'm bringing up the story here  is, yes, this is where things can turn incredibly bullish. But if we fail  to get to where we need to get to, we must not be underprepared for  the other scenario that plays out.

10:56 So what I do now is I pop in this trend line.  The trend line is quite important for me. And one thing that it is indicating for  me is that over the next four days, the market has an opportunity to dump.  Anywhere from three to four days. Which means that I really want to be selfish, and  I really want to prepare for worse levels and make sure that I am prepared for that and I have  limit orders waiting for good opportunities on good altcoins in the market right now.

11:22 Because  we still have space in between the trend here, it means things are going to be choppy  and volatile. And if we look at this here, it can chop, chop, chop, until later in the week  it starts to confirm, hey, there's opportunities, there's reason for us to take some positions,  things might not get much worse. This is great. So again, scenario A is bull.

11:41 We go. But  we need to get through four days. We need to get onto this side of the trend. And  until then, we have the second scenario. Now, the second scenario, I want to show you  guys this because it's important. We have broken, and I need you guys to understand that we're  still at 7 to 8 p.m. at the party. We're going into the 8 p.m. slot now. The really good DJ  comes on from 9.

12:02 That's the understanding here. But if you look at the high time frame here,  great break of structure, very good chance this is the bottom of the cycle. But at the same time,  look at the pullback once we lose these supports. Okay, so let's bring this in over here,  and I'm going to draw this line here. Once we lose these supports, the next supports  are sitting down over here, and the next supports after that are sitting down over here.

12:32 So to bring in a couple of key indicators, I'm going to put in the 200-day moving average so  we can keep this in mind here. Drop this in here. Okay, and 200-day. Boom. So where's the 200-day  sitting? At 71,000. Where's the horizontal sitting here? Between 72 and 74. We were  actually waiting for this over here, but markets broke up amazingly. So if you look  at it as a very clear kind of understanding here, this is support we're incoming to.

13:00 And if we do not hold these supports, we must not be surprised if  price comes down over here. Now, what I want to do is zoom out  and show you guys the bigger picture. This is the first disbelief leg that's  coming out from depression, from anger, from all these different plays. But  this is incredibly bullish in the cycle, and it's something that can come into  play.

13:24 Now again, if you read the room here, we have one more line of support here on Bitcoin,  and if we lose that, we're coming down over here. Now, I want to get you to the altcoin chart  again. Let's zoom out here to the altcoin chart. Here's the altcoins over here. The first  supports we have are over here at these lows, to show you guys. And the next  ones that we have are down here.

13:55 How do I get down there? A couple of key  tools. Let's draw it up. There we go. So what does this look like? I'm going  to go back now to a couple of things. The 9th of September on Solana. Where  was the 9th of September on Solana? $100. Where was the 9th of September on ETH?  Let's go look at it. 9th of September, ETH, $2,400 to $2,500. Where was XRP on the 9th?

14:20 The 1.3 to 1.4 range, 1.35-ish type of area. So you go back and you just look at the levels.  That's where, if Bitcoin decides to push down, we can definitely see altcoins come  down to this major area over here. Good news, though, is altcoins are incredibly  strong. They're looking amazing. So what I'm looking for here on alts is, I don't think  alts are going to go as deep as Bitcoin, but I won't be surprised on the weekly  if we see this and then we go into a big leg to the upside.

14:54 Remember where we  are right now and what's separating us. We are literally at this range of resistance,  and above this resistance is a humongous squeeze to the upside. So the market sometimes needs time  to prepare and slow down and accumulate. It needs some shorters in the market. It needs a little bit  of bearish momentum. So when we pop that level, we squeeze, and we actually have power to  get to the next one.

15:15 So a pause in between where we are now is preparation for the  next huge leg to come into play over here. So again, the way I kind of look at it now is  I'm still very much being prepared for this scenario. This one over here. This is where I  am setting the limit orders on good altcoins, setting the areas on these levels. Because until  we've broken that trend line on Bitcoin, we've got to think about plan B, which is the bigger drop  to come into play.

15:46 Gold ain't looking so great, stock markets ain't looking so great, the  dollar's looking bullish, oil's looking bullish. We have to start putting the entire thing  into the picture over here. So that is a play. Now look, let's see what that basically  means. Just before I jump into the alts, I want to bring up this chart over  here, which is the USDT dominance, the dollar index that we're seeing over here.

16:11 This  chart as well is indicating the exact same thing, that at any point now we can see a test of this  area. So from here, we actually see a move to the upside. This can take up to two weeks.  It can. We'll go through the scenarios now. You know what happens with dumps. The first  move is usually the more aggressive move, and then it kind of settles.

16:36 So we'll speak  about that in a sec. But this to there, to there, that is the bullish leg we're looking for. That  is the bullish leg that we are preparing for. So now let's jump straight in. Now, just before  I jump in, guys, just remember, if any of you guys don't have a Culture account, anyone in  the US that wants a Culture account, you have prediction markets and you have the easiest way  to trade perps.

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17:20 All right. And I was looking at it now and I It was interesting, because if I put my trend  lines in, okay, so look at this now. Earlier it said, in the next 15 minutes, is price going  to go up or down? 66% of people are saying basically up. So if I am a trader and I see this  now, let's say just five minutes as an example, I see that we have lost this trend and  there's a good chance we're actually going to go down over here.

17:44 And I'll jump  into the purpose thing here and I'm like, geez, I'll make a certain 2x or 3x just by getting  this right. Earlier I saw if price went up, it was a 300x on one of these over here. So something  interesting for you guys to pay attention to. But let's jump into the altcoins now.  So this is where we're at right now with ETH. ETH has been dropping.

18:07 And  again, I really want to buy Ethereum, and I want to buy a good amount of Ethereum,  because it's very bullish on the high time frame. But here are the signs now. We are at  a temporary support, so the market needs to bounce a little bit now if it's going to bounce.  If not, we are going to see the drop come pretty soon. I wouldn't be surprised if in the next 12  hours we actually see a double digit red day, where we jump in here and all the bubbles  on the daily are massively red, 23%.

18:39 Now this gets me to the next rule. When you're  someone that is looking to make money this cycle, you're going to have your blue chips, your top  10 altcoins, and you're going to have a bunch of other altcoins that you can make money on. The key  thing to pay attention to is that double digit red days are buying days. You need to have capital,  which means that when you're riding positions and you're making money, taking profits on a  certain amount of them is super important.

18:57 Your stochastic weeklies are a great sign, RSIs  and things like that when they're oversold. Trend lines are also important as well. But get  yourself a metric, a certain amount of coins you're there to trade in and out. And I don't mean  day trading. I mean riding them for three months, TPing out, waiting for a couple of weeks for a big  opportunity.

19:16 But you need to be able to have cash. And I've spoken to you guys. I was around 20 to  25% cash. I want to buy stuff now. And on the next thing, I think it's vitally important to be  buying stuff and getting opportunities to get in. So double digit red days are for buying. Double  digit green days, where everything's just crazy, are actually to offload and to drink water.

19:37 Like I say at the party, there's a time to take in tequilas and a time to drink water. When  this next dump happens and comes into play, I'm going to be in here screaming like the  biggest bull ever, saying, "Drink tequila, y'all. It's time to drink some tequila.  Bring out the bottles. Bring it out." You can see the smile there. The smile comes in  quickly the moment I mention tequila.

19:54 We love it. But we have to be able to withstand  the tequila and not get sent home in the Uber too early. That is the important  thing that we need to pay attention to. So let's jump into the levels over  here, like ETH. At any point now, my ETH buy areas are sitting between 24 and 25.  That's what I've got to think for now. If things shift and markets turn bullish, we have a couple  of days until we'll know.

20:19 Until then, we have to think bear. We have to think about the things  on Solana: SOL 100, anywhere up to 104, 105. And I'm going to throw one more spanner  in the works here. Last time we caught the bottom perfectly. After that, it actually  went lower. So here I'm going to say that I'm not going all in. I will go in with 50  to 60% of the money that I have available, in case we see one more flush actually lower  after that.

20:50 I'm not super, super certain, but I do not want to be caught off guard like I've  been caught off guard in the past by not thinking it's there. Maybe Bitcoin to 70. And again, if  Bitcoin goes down to 70 and dominance goes up, you are going to see a fast, fast, fast  pullback on the altcoins. Huge opportunities. So it gets me to the point of XRP again: 1.3, with  the 200-day sitting at 1.22 to 1.35.

21:15 That is where I'm paying attention. All these coins that have  done well, Immutable X, looking at 15 cents. So again, I'm thinking this area of 15 to 20% down to  be prepared for. Yes, luckily we bought a lot of altcoins, and they're basically going to come back  just above where we've been buying them. But it's a great opportunity. So your Filecoins that are  coming in here, I've spoken a lot around these.

21:43 Let's speak around the Cardanos. Your Cardano  in the early 20 cents mark. Your NEAR. Here's NEAR, it's really, really, really ripped. Now, I  don't know if NEAR is ready to dump properly just yet. It's starting to lose some short-term trends,  so we could see a test down. But look at the first areas on NEAR. If you look at NEAR here, just  an incredible couple of days.

21:58 But your big supports are sitting at early $4. So that's 20%  cheaper than where we are. But I also mustn't be surprised by 3.5. So on this one, as days go by,  join every day and we'll go through the levels and we'll catch NEAR. We're just waiting to see.  There was a little bit more resistance above, so I don't know if there's one more push up,  but I don't like these engulfing candles, guys.

22:26 We want to see bulls step in on the  short time frame pretty soon. Otherwise, these engulfing candles are trouble. They're  basically saying, you know what happens with moves like this? One or two candles absorb it,  and then after that, we start building again. Candles start building again to the upside.  So let's just make this red so it makes more sense what I'm saying here.

22:47 There we go. We  mustn't be surprised for this to come into play. So there are tons of alts. Injective at mid $6.  AVAX down to the areas of $9. SUI, which has had a good run. SUI has good support around mid $1,  so we'll keep eyes on that, but we could go to the late 90 cents again. Render, which has done  well, but Render's support is sitting at 1.7.

23:12 These are incredible buys. These are huge  opportunities to buy in the markets. That's why me turning temporarily bearish over the  last couple of weeks is literally a strategy we need to bring into play for the cycle. Can I see  likes up on there? Can I see yeses in the chat? And then I want to bring up over here, when  it comes to WEX, if anyone's using a WEX link to trade, you can win an iPhone duo, which I've  now seen is a lot of money.

23:32 All links are below. And I want to get to this last point. I, Sheldon,  joined this space to make a difference, to be there for people every single day. Which means  when I come here, I put my heart on my sleeve every day. And there are times I've been pushed  into certain ways of being, a certain persona. For me, losing a very special person in my life again  has brought me back to why I do this.

23:59 I ain't here to make anyone happy or do what people want.  I'm here to say that we can do this together. For those that want to thrive and have had difficult  times and a hard life, just ignore everything and lock in and let's go. I come with every single  part of my love that I can bring. And this has brought me back to connection more than ever  before.

24:22 There's a reason for us being together. And at the same time, many have died young around  me, and I want to live old. And that's why, for me, in everything we're doing here, there's a  very, very big purpose and reason to do so. So I make a promise to you to just be Sheldon. I come  with energy because I have passion, but not to be this ego person saying we're going here and we're  going there.

24:51 All that I'm saying is, through the six years, I've learned more than ever. I can now  say I'm a little bit more of an OG in the space, so I come with a lot more experience. And  every single time we got our asses whipped, I've learned, and I'll learn more. And there have  been a lot of times we've done incredible things, but I really have a feeling that our  lives are going to change together.

25:13 And those who are here to talk crap, just leave.  Bye-bye. I don't do this for fame. I can give zero craps about fame. I do this for those that  want to get a cup of coffee in the morning, join their fam, and stay locked in for  a bigger reason and purpose. So I love you guys lots. Like up the video and  I'll see you guys tomorrow. Bye-bye.