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Inside the Leo Aschenbrenner Situation: Who Wins? Who Loses? Transcript, AI Summary & Key Points

20VC with Harry Stebbings · Jul 31, 2026 · Science & Technology · 02:14 · EN

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AI Summary

Leo Ashkanasy's Situational Awareness fund reportedly grew from $225 million to $45 billion in assets before its public book crashed. The fund's 2% management fee and 20% carried-interest structure could have generated roughly $260 million in performance fees from a $1.3 billion gain, and the transcript estimates Leo left with at least $500 million. Ken Griffin and Citadel reportedly bought many core positions and made $1.5 billion in profits within days. Early fund investors more than doubled their money, while recent investors and Situational Awareness employees were the main losers.

Key Points

  • Leo Ashkanasy's Situational Awareness fund reportedly grew from $225 million to $45 billion in assets.
  • The fund used a standard 2% management fee and 20% carried-interest structure.
  • The transcript estimates a $1.3 billion year-one gain and roughly $260 million in performance fees.
  • Situational Awareness reportedly returned 439% in the first half of 2026 on an asset base of $8 billion to $14 billion.
  • The transcript estimates that Leo Ashkanasy left with at least $500 million.
  • Ken Griffin and Citadel reportedly bought many core positions and made $1.5 billion in profits within a few days.
  • Early investors more than doubled their money, while a June investor who put in $1 million would have approximately $330,000 left.
  • Recent Situational Awareness investors and recently hired team members are identified as the main losers.
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Transcript

Searchable transcript of Inside the Leo Aschenbrenner Situation: Who Wins? Who Loses? — 20VC with Harry Stebbings (02:14). Search for a phrase, then click its timestamp to jump straight to that moment in the video.

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00:00 This guy, Leo Ashkanasy dubbed the next Warren Buffett, he's all over the news for taking his fund Situational Awareness from $225 million to $45 billion in assets. And all of that came crashing down yesterday when the dark lord Voldemort Ken Griffin came and Citadel bought poor Leo's public book. But who are the winners and who are the losers? Surprisingly, number one, Leo Ashkanasy himself.

00:24 The fund, you see, has a standard 2 and 20 fee structure. 2% management fee on assets and 20% carried interest on the profits. With year one rough math, there was a $1.3 billion gain. 20% of $1.3 billion, that's roughly $260 million in performance fees alone before the fund even hit its massive 2026 run. 439% return in the first half of 2026 alone on an asset base of 8 to 14 billion already.

00:59 On that, a 439% return would be billions in gross investor profit, netting Leo hundreds of millions of dollars even before the performance hit that we've seen in the last month. So Leo's leaving this with at least half a billion dollars. Number two, Ken Griffin, the dark lord from Citadel. The timing looks great for Griffin so far. Since they bought many of the core positions, woo, they're way up and they're profits in just a few days, $1.5 billion.

01:31 Next, early investors in the fund and they did super well and even with the latest performance, they more than doubled their money. So this sounds great. Who are the losers? Well, Situational Awareness Fund's most recent investors, they will not have done well. A June investor putting in a million dollars would have approximately $330,000 left. Pretty bad, but there's more.

01:49 It's an incredibly hard time for the Situational Awareness team financially. If they joined recently, they will not have made bank. It's also just a very tough thing for their resume and it's a really hard thing for them to go through. So, the two losers really are the latest fund investors and the team themselves. Follow along for more. We're going to break down how Ken Griffin did this master class.