BITCOIN: PAY ATTENTION!!!!!! (Emergency!) Transcript, AI Summary & Key Points

00:00 We're going live. We're clicking the button. Mhm. Oh, yes. Oh, yes. Oh, yes. Oh, yes, guys. Welcome to this emergency emergency evening live stream, as you can see right here on Ivan on Tech. And as you can see right now, Bitcoin has been having a bit of a pump. We had a bit of a pump today. People are saying that Bitcoin is starting to live la vida loca.

00:18 Is it time for us to relax and see the beauty of the greenness? Now, something very important to realize is that this is not an isolated event. This pump right here is not just out of nowhere. It comes right after the US Treasury, basically the US government, said that they will be buying the bonds. They will be buying their own bonds with both hands.

00:41 With both hands they would would be using because no one is buying their bonds. The US Treasury yield, for example, on the 30-year was the highest since 2007. Look at this. If I go to this one, I remove the trends, and we just look how high this yield was a few days ago. You see, it's the highest since since since since here, basically. Since here, since 2007.

01:10 So, the trust in the dollar is very low. The trust in US government is very low. When the yield is going up like this, it means that the financial markets are not lending money to the US. The financial markets are saying, "Hey, for us to lend you money, you need to pay a high interest rate because we don't trust you. We don't trust you. Maybe you're going to hyperinflate.

01:33 What the hell is going to happen? We need a high high high interest rate. If you give us high interest rate, we will give you money because then it's lower risk." So, the higher the yield, the worse it is for the government because they have to pay high cost. They have to pay high interest rate. They have a smaller budget to spend on their population, and so on and so forth.

01:55 So, how does the government bring this yield back well, they have to basically buy their own bonds. If they go and if they go and they buy their own bonds, the supply of bonds is going to be less, which means that the price of bonds are going to go up. When price of bonds go up, the yield comes down. So, the next step is that this money is going to come from the Fed.

02:15 Currently, it's coming from the US government. US government is using their own budget in order to buy bonds. That budget is going to end very quickly, but the problem is not going to end. The problem of high yields is not going to end. So, you will have the Fed stepping in next. That's the next step in this situation. And of course, it's a very big news.

02:34 I mean, for us it's a very big news because this has not happened in a very long time that the government comes out and says, "Hey, we're a bit desperate. We need to pump our own financial markets." We have to pump our own bond market. And uh basically, it's COVID times. I mean, the last time we saw this was COVID time. You remember what happened in the COVID time?

02:53 To be a bear in the COVID time, it was uh not too smart because as soon as they started to help the market, pump the market, we started to go very high. Bitcoin started the La Vida Loca very quickly. And so, that's why currently, we're in a situation where most assets in crypto are still bear trend. I mean, even Bitcoin is still bear trend, but you really have to pay attention here, guys.

03:14 You really have to pay attention. Bitcoin, for example, just has to pump like 15% to go bull trend. It can literally happen within a few days. Today, we had a How much today it was? 8 10%? Like literally, this can happen in tomorrow. Okay, it can happen like 2 days. We we just need to pump 15%. Solana needs to pump not that much. It needs to pump how much to go to bull trend?

03:33 It needs to pump also 50 Okay, 13%. 13%. If we If we go bull trend Solana, we say goodbye to our buy zone at 30, then it's not going to happen. Then it's not going to happen. But uh we're still bear trend, but we're close. We're close to bull. We're close to the end of the bear. I truly feel that this is the time for us to mentally be bull. We're mentally bull.

03:52 Practically, we're not super bull yet because we have to go to bull trend. We have to see the bull trend. We have to stay disciplined. Could this still be just a lower high? It could. People are saying, "Ivan, Ivan, it could be a lower high." I know. I mean, I probably told you about the lower high because we were yelling that this right here is a lower high.

04:08 It's a bull jackulation, pretty much premature bull jackulation, and you had just had a series of lower highs here. And now and now, this can also I mean, practically can be a lower it is good. It is good. We're still in bear trend, but the difference is that we're so close to Q4 now. Literally, at the end of August. The end of August is like a month left.

04:29 It's a month left to for us to have a year since the peak, and bear markets normally last a year. So, that's the big difference. It's a very, very big difference now that we're basically in September. We're 10 days from September. Okay, 11. How many? 11 days. 11 days from September. It's a massive difference because you have a price-based capitulation, and uh yeah, here you can say that price-wise it can still continue lower because it's bear trend.

04:51 But then you have the time-based capitulation, which means that approximately a year after the peak, you got to be bullish. You got to be bullish. You got to be looking at the bright side, and as soon as we flip bull trend, fantastic, fantastic. We'll go Lady Gaga with both hands. Looking at the daily the daily the daily trend for Bitcoin is bullish for quite some time.

05:11 I mean, it's bullish here since basically mid-June. It's been sideways, but now it's interesting because it is breaking to the upside. We're seeing the a daily trend go to the upside from this from this previous highs. So, yeah, a lot of strength from Bitcoin right now. Still too early to have full return to your bull, but guys, I mean, we literally we may be like a week from it.

05:34 We may say It feels crazy to say, but if we go to bull trend, man, what do you want? What do you want? It's going to be crazy. It's going to be crazy. So, for you guys to not miss any updates, subscribe to the channel, but YouTube does not send notifications always. If you miss notifications, it can be the difference between you making it in the bull and not.

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06:14 Look at the chart. It was like the top the top. And now we became bull basically in July. We said time to start DCA'ing in July and you see what's happening. So, if anything to ensure that you are on the right track, you don't get lost in the madness, subscribe to the free uh newsletter, so you're in contact with us. We're going to be guiding you for free in the newsletter once per week at least.

06:41 You're going to be receiving no spam and it's going to be so so nice. It's going to be fantastic. So, the situation is as follows. The bull case is simple and mechanical. And this is from Bull Mania AI. The US Treasury just signaled it will double liquidity support buybacks in the 10-year and the 30-year part of the curve. Basically, the long-term the long-term yields are too high.

07:00 It's too too high. That puts fresh cash into the financial system. Exactly. We need fresh cash as soon as possible. Bitcoin has historically been one of the cleanest high beta expressions of rising dollar liquidity. As soon as you have liquidity rising, Bitcoin rises. Bitcoin is there pumping. Bitcoin is there dancing. Bitcoin is there dancing on the table.

07:21 Okay. And that is exactly what we're laying out here. So, you have US Treasury coming out. I said it's time to it's time to pay attention. We're going to see brr coming back. Treasury buybacks means cash out the door, okay? Cash is getting deployed into financial markets from the government in this case and soon from the uh Fed. When the government buys its own longer dated bonds from the market, dealers and holders receive dollars because someone is holding these assets.

07:53 And so when the US government buys them, they create new money from the Fed or they buy with their own budget. So currently they buy with just the government budget, they don't create new money yet, but they will have to soon because budget is not endless, but the problem is endless. Budget not endless, but the problem is endless. I love that. It kind of summarizes the the whole situation with the with the dollar.

08:15 You could have temporary support by the government when they buy the bonds with the budget, but budget is endless. Problem is not endless, so you will have to have the printer, okay? So that's number one. Number two, it's concentrated in the long and that part of the curve is where duration risk and term premium premiums live. Supporting it reduces the odds of a disorderly backup in long yields and signals the official sector is willing to absorb.

08:44 So the next step is brr. What was said here? The next step is brr. Once Treasury is already running liquidity support operations, the political and market path of least resistance often becomes friendlier Fed. Fed starts to swing. They swing something big, you know what? Kevin needs to start swinging. He has something to swing, he will start swinging it big and he around and it's going to be coming liquidities out of it.

09:10 Exactly. Bitcoin's historical role. Bitcoin has no cash flows and a fixed supply. When excess liquidity rises and the real yield opportunity cost of holding non-yield yielding assets fall, capital has repeatedly rotated into Bitcoin. So as yields come down, Bitcoin is going to come up. It's going to go come up. So yeah, more dollars chasing scarce assets such as Bitcoin, obviously, for crypto as a whole is going to be fantastic.

09:39 We just need to go into bull trend. So guys, I don't want to keep it too long. I'm actually Oh guys, guys, guys, ETH ETH ETH. Ooh la la. Ooh la la, guys. Who would have guessed? Ooh la la, Tom Lee's happy. Tom Lee's going to be very very happy. Holy crap, guys. If ETH goes bull trend, ETH is probably the closest to bull trend. Ooh la la, we're going to be mega bullish ETH.

10:10 We're going to be bullish all of the L2s. All of the forgot L2s, we're going to be loving. Loving, loving, loving, McLovin. Look at hype. Off, almost all-time high. Hype teleporting back to all-time high. As it goes above these previous weekly closes, fantastic. Bullish, bullish, bullish as hell. Zcash still bull trend, but uh yeah, probably going to soon be bull trend.

10:34 Tao, Tao, uh very very very very weak. I I I was actually stay away from it because it's um not doing anything, even though it's technically bull. Sui not doing any anything. So yeah, Rollbit Rollball waiting for it to pump back. Ada not Dot not doing anything. Where is Dot? All-time low basically. Ada Guys, Ada also not doing too much, unfortunately.

10:57 Ton, Ton not doing too much. But ETH, man, ETH. Solana is like What did we say? How many percent away? 13% away with something like that from bull trend. ETH and Tom Lee is just how much? 4% away. 4% away, okay? For from from bull trend. Fantastic. Ford coin potential double bottom. Let's see if Ford coin recovers faster than Ada. Wouldn't that be crazy?

11:31 Guys, let me take Ford coin versus Ada. I have no clue which one is the strongest. But you know, it's just that Ada they think they are so Falcon versus Ada is now in bull trend. I mean Falcon versus Ada has actually had quite a nice bear market. You see it's been holding up quite nicely now in bull trend. So Falcon, yeah, it's it's not too bad versus Ada.

11:52 You see? This chart looks actually bullish. This is Falcon versus Ada. Okay, Falcon versus Dot. Let's see Dot. Can Dot compete with Falcon or not? I mean because one has fundamentals and one has It's like It's like Ada. Basically sideways. Yeah. But now bull trend. Falcon is bull trend versus Ada and versus Dot. Okay? Holy Yeah. Guys, let's keep it short.

12:16 That's it. Smash on the like. Subscribe. Go subscribe to the newsletter so you don't miss the updates and see you in like 12 hours. 12 hours. We go to bed. We sleep and then we're back. Smash on the like. Subscribe and subscribe to Bull Mania newsletter so we don't lose lose track with each other in the bull. Goodbye, guys. Goodbye. Goodbye. Goodbye.