BITCOIN: HISTORY REPEATING!!! (while everyone panics) Transcript, AI Summary & Key Points

00:03 Oh yes, oh yes, yes, yes. Guys, welcome to another episode. And as you can see right now, Bitcoin is still at around 74 73. We're here in the six uh red week in the six red week. Now, currently we are experiencing something that is actually not new and the history is repeating. We're now down from this recent high. How much? 15%. Of course, the drama is very high.

00:31 If you look on social media, you look on Twitter. Oh, it's crazy, guys. It's crazy. If you look at cryptoqu Twitter right now, people are saying we're going to go to 30K, we're going to go to 40K. All kinds of different bearish mega bearish calls. The different bears that were bearish around 57K are taking victory laps because Bitcoin fell 274. The bears at 57K are taking victory laps because Bitcoin fell 274.

01:01 And we do see a bit of a bare euphoria right now. And guess what? It's very good. Bare euphoria in this kind of circumstance is very very good because Bitcoin I mean literally down 15%. Nothing has changed. And you know what? It's exactly what happened back here. We are literally repeating exactly what happened here. We have a new bull trend. The price dumps here.

01:27 Here from this peak right here to the bottom, it dumped 22%. And actually, it did touch the previous peak here. You see the previous peak of 2017, it did come down and touch it. If we look at where we are currently, we're doing something similar. We haven't touched the previous peak yet because the previous peak is here at 69 which is actually corresponding to not really 200 moving average.

01:52 200 moving average is 66 that would be even lower. So all in all the history is repeating. Now is not the time in my humble opinion. Now is not the time to be bare. Absolutely not. And you should read the disclaimer right here that it's not financial advice. It's just entertainment infotainment. It's education as we call education. Uh but now is not the time to be bearish.

02:14 And Chris Berninski yesterday did come out and say, "Hey, don't let the fear blind you. The fear is here. The fear is everywhere." And guess what? Bitcoin always seems to be going down to zero. Okay? I've never seen Bitcoin be in a position for long where just up and up and up and up and everyone is comfortable. It's never comfortable. That's the price we pay for being in this market.

02:40 that it's uncomfortable. It's uncomfortable. Thank you very much. Someone says, "You look awesome in black." Thank you very much. Someone said Steve Jobs in the studio. Yes, today we have a bit of Steve Jobs. Guys, welcome everyone who's watching live. Today we have no no Matt and no Guzman. Where where is everyone? Where is everyone? But also we do a bit different time.

02:58 I I had a bit of uh stuff to do earlier. So, welcome everyone. Smash up the like as soon as possible. Subscribe to the channel if you haven't yet. Go to bullmania.com. Sign up for the newsletter. I will be sending out newslet letter in a few hours. So you have me in the morning here live speaking and then the newsletter in the evening. If we look at the ETFs, ETFs are still outflow outflow outflow outflow.

03:22 Whenever there is bearish sentiment, the ETFs are out out. As soon as you have a bit of bullish sentiment, they will be coming back bigly bigly bigly. So guys, all in all, Bitcoin is just doing what it's always doing. All coins is a different story because with all coins, we just follow the trend. If something is bare trend, we are risk off. Sana for example is bare trend now since last week.

03:42 We are risk off. It went bare here at 90 95ish and continued lower. So here we just they just need to come back to bull trend. But with Bitcoin with Bitcoin it is bull trend. It's close to 200 moving average. Fantastic. ETH is bare trend. So be careful. Um whe whenever something is bare trend we have to be careful. Let's see hype. Is it still holding?

04:02 O hype wants to go to bare trend. Let's see if it can close above. It's still four days to go. The week is not over. It can still close above the bull uh the bull trend. But u all coins are a different story because if they go bare trend the downside is just big. Bitcoin is bull trend and the downside is very limited because we have the 200 week moving average right here.

04:24 And this is the longterm bottom for Bitcoin always. We can go down, we can go lower, but you know buying at 200 moving average is historically a very very smart idea. And we are we're currently you can say at around 200 moving average. We're not that far away. So all in all bitcoin fantastic fantastic. We do have a bit of news now just globally with Russia Ukraine.

04:48 There is a bit of talks now between Russia and Ukraine. Obviously some kind of ceasefire or some let's not not say peace. I mean peace is I don't know if it's likely but there there are some talks here with US mediated trilateral peace talks between US, Russia and Ukraine. um currently in Abu Dhabi. Will something happen? Probably not. Probably not.

05:08 Um Steve Witkov, Jared Kushner are trying to mediate. Um they probably need some kind of deal. If I'm to guess maybe they need some kind of deal, maybe you know rare earth here and there. President Zilinski not in the room described day one as constructive and quite substantiative. But he cannot say anything else. Zilinski now says that everything is great.

05:29 Everything that the US is proposing he just has to say is fantastic is great. Otherwise they're going to ask him why don't you say thank you where is your suit you need to say thank you so whatever US is doing Ukraine is saying yes peace talks yes also they don't want it to be that you know that Trump can say that they they're not collaborating so Ukraine is you know they're positive for everything let's let's figure it out at least they're participating for everything yeah let's say let's see delegation by Kremlin

05:58 Moscow has been tighter lipped publicly yeah let's Guys, I likely nothing's going to happen. Likely nothing's going to happen. Uh but let's see. We we're going to be positively surprised. As with all things in life, if you don't have high expectation, you have high happiness. Low expectations mean high happiness. Why? Because happiness is the difference between your expectation and reality.

06:20 So if you have low expectation, now for example, I I don't have too many expectations on this trilateral deal, but you know, if something happens, we're gonna be surprised. We're going to say thank you very much for this pump and uh it's going to be great but I would put very very low probability here. Let's see. Kayakalas EU. Everyone loves Kayakalas.

06:41 Not really but he's saying crucial weeks. Europe has Ukraine's back. Sanctions stay. Sovereignity is not a bargaining ship. Okay. Okay. Ah Europe must have a say. No solution without Europe. They say exactly. They're not invited. This is the problem. US did not invite Europe. They just speak with Russia, Ukraine. Let's see if they can figure it out.

07:01 The problem with Europe as always is that there's no single person to speak to. It's, you know, a club. Everyone has a bit different opinion. Um, so they just make it a bit too difficult. So I think it's good that maybe US and Russia can agree first, then Europe. Let's see if we can fit them in later on. You cannot have too many chefs in the kitchen.

07:20 Might have too many chefs. You invite Europe, it's like it's not one chef. It's not one more chef, it's 27 more chefs and they have all all a bit different. All in all, this is for us currently a bit of a bullish catalyst. Uh but likely nothing's going to happen. But we take all bullishness we can take in this situation we're in now with the dump with the drama.

07:41 We take all bullishness we can take it. Okay. Now in terms of Iran, let's see. Did something happen with Iran? Uh I will ask Bulmana AI here to bring to us the the Iran situation because that's also a bit of a catalyst potential bullishness in case um either ceasefire or something happen. So Iran peace talks remain stalled with no direct negotiations underway uh though Qatar immediate contacts continue and both sides signal openness to deescalation.

08:10 Okay. So Iran also potentially going to have some kind of news potentially but not likely not likely because to for them to have this nice Iran situation where they can pump or dump the market any day it's too good. It's too good. Solving Iran would remove their market pump and dump opportunity. So likely nothing's going to happen but let's keep an eye uh at some point it's going to happen.

08:32 I mean at some point there's going to be some some resolution but not currently. Guys, looking at the current situation, we have MSEI deciding today whether strategy and other crypto treasury companies count as nonoperating because if they do then they they are going to be removed from MSEI. There's going to be a bit of outflow from this companies. Uh so another bare catalyst.

08:54 So today we're going to know Bitcoin net shorts hit their highest level since the July bottom. So people are bearish. People are shorting but we're bullish. We're bullish. I was the only bull in October 2025. It feels sorry. I was the only bear in October 2025. It feels like I'm the I'm the only bull now. Okay. It feels like I tweeted yesterday. Time to be to be bearish was October 2025.

09:18 Not this October, not now. But it feels like I'm the only bull now. Do you guys know more bulls? Should we meet? Should we have a bull meetup or something? Okay. It is not the time to be bearish now. In my humble humble opinion here, I was the only Bitcoin bear in October 2025. Okay, you see it in pin tweet. It feels like I'm the only bull now. Maybe we have a few.

09:47 It's okay. Tom Lee and I Tom Le and I. Tom Lee and I were this close now. We're the only we're we're the only bulls now. So, it feels like I'm the only bull. And it's good because at the end of the day, play a bit bearish. We're down 15%. It's almost I feel that it is almost turning out to be a mega bull thing because look here 15% down for Bitcoin and the drama on crypto Twitter is so intense which means that there's no bull complacency.

10:16 It's not like people are just saying oh buy the dip is going to be fine. No no we have 15% dump and it's blood like it's blood on the street. people running super scared, super crazy. So that's a signal of early bull market if not even bare market where people still haven't understood that it has shifted. Okay, imagine we have 15% down in Bitcoin and people are so crazily scared.

10:48 It's like you know they think it's bare market we're going to have a new bottom. Okay, if you think about it, it means that probably most are sidelined or on the sidelines and haven't committed to the bullishness yet, which means that a lot of influence are still going to come and uh there's no complacency that uh we're just going to ride up and up and up and up.

11:09 So, in reality, the fact that there's so much fear I think is good. I think it's good. Look here. Like clockwork, the Bitcoin to 48ks are back. Bitcoin at 73 can feel awful if you're watching the charts all day, but we were at 58K in July and 63K in August. Digging out of a bare market is always hard, but progress is being made. Patience, patience, patience.

11:32 Yeah, true, true, true, true. So guys, let me know where you stand. If you're bullish, if you're bearish, if you're panicking, we're soon going to go to Q&A and today I will have more patience. Some someone said yesterday Ivan didn't have patience yesterday for Q&A because there were people like avan what's going to happen if we go to 69 what's going to happen today guys I'm full of patience we I I will be uh going through your concern with max max pat someone roing comment section I I I was roasting Q&A too too much

12:02 yesterday some guy yesterday was panicking he was asking Ivan can you address the possibility of going down to 69 or something like that. Hold on. We're going to come to Q&A soon, guys. Smash up the like though. Oh, Matt is here. Matt, what's happening? What's happening? Big shout. Big shout out. Krypto Collins. Crypto Collins is saying Bitcoin is playing out like it did last cycle.

12:25 Maybe it goes a little lower, but a big bounce could come at any time. True. My personal guess for the lowest it could go before a big bounce to 65K, but it could also happen um anywhere above that too, just like it did in 2023. Basically speaking about exactly the same thing as as as we're doing. It seems extremely likely to hold above the major support of the bottom.

12:44 Basically somewhere between um yeah I I think this from a risk perspective this makes sense to me. This this also makes sense to me. Okay. I think I I think this is the best riskreward in Bitcoin in a long time because you have a new bull trend. We had a year of uh of uh bare market. Uh you also buy now with a pullback. So after a pullback it's even better.

13:08 Okay. Uh, also let's not forget what we just talked about uh, last week. After midterms, stocks normally do very well after midterms. Six months after midterm, stocks do very well. That that's another thing. Someone was like, "Oh, Ivan, I thought stocks do well after midterm." Yeah, if you look at six months, six months ahead, what what happens in the next daily candle?

13:30 Who the hell knows? No one can know that. But this is this the mindset of the playback. Some player yesterday was like, "Oh, I I thought I I thought we're bullish after midterm." Yeah, six months after midterm. has always have always been bullish since like 70 years ago. But what happens daytoday you understand? No no no there there is no crystal orb.

13:47 I mean I wish I could give you crystal orb. There's no crystal orb. So the bullishness is still that stocks do very well after midterms. Six months out you have like 10% on average in S&P after midterm. You also have crypto bullish after midterm. A year out actually after midterm. Crypto in the in the following weeks is volatile. There there is some downside like like we've seen now.

14:08 But if you look one year fantastic results. So that is still that is still uh very very good. And uh with all of this in aggregate as you know because you watch the show because you subscribe and you smash the like we are leaning bullish. We're leaning bullish. Okay. Uh we're and see I I don't like flip-flopping too much because we have a very nice strategy here.

14:35 I mean our strategy it's made also to take care of the different scenarios. So for example since Q4 we're bearish since the summer here when we went below 200 moving average we said it's time to accumulate time to accumulate below 200 moving average adding average and uh nothing has changed so we if nothing changes we keep this strategy very very nice I mean that's the best thing with mechanical rules and having a strategy look here Canada's public sector pension investment board disclosed a fresh 155 million stake in

15:03 strategy good strategy bought another 1k bitcoin they also bought they they bought they think too much of this is stretch but okay Kraken Xbox expanding to more stocks that's good also where is Trump because Trump announced that they have been buying a lot they've been buying a lot oh by the way something is happening with Professor Jang and Sneo like it's I don't what are they doing they're like eating in Usuzbekistan or what the the there are always clips where Professor Jang is with Sneo and they're like eating

15:37 eating food get you out. No, there is no assignment. My assignment was I'm being 100% honest. I'm an overseas teacher. I work at the work. >> What's the What's your assignment right now? >> I'm I got to get you out. No, there is no assignment. My assignment was I'm being 100%. Sorry guys, a bit off topic, but I've been watching Professor Jang so much and it's just fascinating that he's like what what what is he doing?

16:06 Why is he with >> honest? I'm an overseas teacher. I work at the State Department affiliated school and my kids were like, >> "What's your name?" >> Frank Cafarella. >> No, it's not. >> Yeah, it is. >> No, it's not. >> What do you think it is? >> Frank Cafarella. >> Yeah, >> I'm half I'm like Polish, Italian, Irish. with the staffer in your name. >> Oh god, that's a >> I'm Kufuar 100%.

16:35 >> But my girl is you got to give me some props for that. >> I maybe it's just me guys. I don't know. I I just I just saw this uh you know Sne is in Pakistan with Professor Jang and they're eating. But anyway, a bit of topic. I just saw it in my in my in my feed. Uh there is a bit of drama with Anam. We're going to get to that. But I wanted to see where's Trump.

16:55 Trump Trump. Where is he? Where is he? He's not here. He's not here. He's not there. There. There. Trump disclosed that they bought another $100 million in his companies in Q3. Bitcoin. Bitcoin. Very important. President is buying. Retail is panic selling. They're panic selling. President is buying, retail is panicking. Very good. I mean, that's it's the curse of the play.

17:20 But guys, you see, I can we can explain things. We can have a strategy, but um it's emotional. It's emotional. Now uh there are some the mega bear the mega bear thesis is this like this guy is saying with the risk quite a bit after the risking higher we kept realizing that has completely stopped basically saying that after flood this guy thinking USD I'm not even sure what he's doing class okay anyway he has the mega bare thesis here and he's saying he's not buying uh lower here because short-term crypto may be

17:51 uninvestable Democrats are probably going against a 2.0 And there are plenty of nasty outcomes that made illegal and forced to unwind, warrant banking oversight, protocols pushing memecoins getting prosecuted, privacy tokens uh treated as hostile and so on and so forth. So always in crypto, you have this you have this. I'm not weighing this mega bear too much.

18:16 It's obviously part of the risk analysis overall, just being in crypto or not being in crypto. But it's always been like this. This is the thing. These fears have have always been here with this government. Is Bitcoin going to be banned? Is as old as Bitcoin itself? Is Bitcoin going to be banned? Our government's going to crack down. But as always, crypto and Bitcoin, you cannot ban it.

18:39 You can only ban yourself out of it. So just, you know, coming back to the basics. But what I'm not doing in my own personal trading, investing is putting this mega bear scenario as number one. It's one of the scenarios. I mean maybe it does happen but will it happen now? Will it happen in 2028 when they take over the president also? Who the hell knows?

18:59 Who the hell knows? So you you are going to see this sometimes. It's not uncommon that you see this mega bear. Someone is saying I've sold everything. I've sold everything. How many post history we've seen where someone is saying I've sold everything because I don't believe in crypto anymore or or I'm scared. I sold everything because I'm scared because of this and this and this.

19:17 It happens all the time. It is interesting. uh you know chain of events that maybe happens. It could happen that's made illegal and forced to unwind. Could it happen? I don't know. It could happen. But at the same time, you know, look at Micro Strategy. Look at who owns Micro Strategy. Look at all of the pension funds. Look at all of the uh Wall Street entities, banks.

19:41 There they have so many owners. Look at retail investors that own strategy. So as a politician, you cannot be too crazy. That's the thing. That's the best thing maybe with the last years with Trump that crypto has now gotten so entrenched that let's say you're a politician, you start messing with all of these assets too much, you will be wrecking your own voters and your donors because Democrats have donors.

20:04 Crypto and finance, they're one. They're one now. The bankers who wanted to kill crypto before, they don't want to kill crypto now. They have so much incentive in crypto. Crypto is being integrated everywhere. So, personally, I don't see too much weight in this uh Gensler 2.0 except for maybe memecoin because memecoin and all of the stuff with memecoin doesn't have the same institutional backing and adoption versus for example that that with strategy is is a different story.

20:36 Okay, pampan maybe pan is going to get in trouble with Warren. Yes, I can see that. I can see pampan getting in trouble. Also potentially privacy coins because they also don't have any uh political or institutional weight behind them. So if I'm a politician, I want to mess with crypto. I want to go after the weak spots where I can make a statement, I can win political points and I will not get any kind of uh problems with my voters or donors.

21:05 So who can I go after? Pump fan. If I go after pan, okay, who's going to defend them? No one. Okay. If I go after privacy coins, okay, who's going to defend them? Because you defend them, you is for terrorism, you know, that's privacy coins for Kim Jamun. You defend Kim Jongun. Everything else, I don't know. I think it's going to be tough, man. I think it's going to be tough.

21:26 And okay, warren banking overset. Yeah, banks do crypto now. Banks have big crypto businesses now. So the best thing with the uh Trump years is removal of all this unnecessary regulation so that crypto is more entrenched into the financial system. You Warren Combmes, Elizabeth Warren, very welcome. Big welcome. What you going to do? What you going to change?

21:48 Your voters have crypto now. What you going to change? So that's my view. What you do is up to you. Not financial advice. You can lose all your money. Pause. Read. Uh but being around the block I always see there's always as soon as there's a dam there's always someone who has some concern and they're so scared and they and they declare their concern.

22:11 You know what this was also true a few weeks ago. You know what people already knew a few weeks ago that Democrats are going to take over Senate and Congress. It this was already known weeks ago. This this is not new. poly market, cali prediction markets, they they already predicted that the democrats were going to have uh power. We everyone knew that prediction markets are super accurate.

22:34 Everyone knew that. So when price was pumping, these concerns were not big concerns. Now that price is dumping suddenly the concerns are big concerns. You understand? So it's the concerns are not connected to reality. It's more reaction to the price which makes sense. I mean there's always going to be people reacting on the price. Okay, moving on. Look here.

22:56 Uh, fascinating. How many how many of you go into complete panic and drama mode when the markets dip a bit? This is from Kevin. He's doing the podcast. He's he's a podcaster guy. Great podcast. Probably the reason you've been here for 10 years and probably why you'll be here for another 10. I don't understand what he says, but it he's saying that people go into drama when markets dump a bit.

23:22 Yeah. This I don't understand. Probably the reason you've been here then. What do you mean? That that's why people go to drama or what? But he's not English native. He's not English native. Maybe his issue with English. I I don't understand. Or it's my English, guys. What is he saying? Does he tweet make sense? I I don't get it. He's bullish or what is he?

23:42 He's bearish or what is I I I thought he said that it's crazy how you guys are panicking for nothing. Is that what he says? Anyway, um oh yeah, by the way, there's a lot of talk about Kagger that Kagger has been disappointing in crypto and there is some uh truth to that. Kagger has been disappointing. Um if you look at uh Bitcoin compounding annual return uh annual growth rate is been flat.

24:11 Okay, basically flat. It's been very flat since this recent dump. is the same price now as like in 2022. Uh but just like this chart says, it's flat until it's not flat. So, Bitcoin moves in trends. Bitcoin moves in trends. So, you have trend up, it's a big trend up and yes, then a bit of a consolidation this and that. But, um it is interesting if you look from the peak of the bull and then you see forward it can take yeah it can take quite some years to go above it.

24:42 here it took how many years like two years to get above it and then it can also come back to it. So if you cherrypick those data points that yeah from the peak and then you know the next bear goes back to the peak and that's like five years later it looks bad but you see bitcoin moves in trend and then boop then 6 6.3x for example for example so just some uh caveat to that but it is true overall that growth in bitcoin is lower than it was in the beginning but everyone knows that in the beginning it went from nothing to

25:13 very high now it's very high and I think it's going to go high. I I don't even believe in diminishing returns necessarily. Why? Because financial markets, they don't seem to really have diminishing returns now, guys, with AI, with companies going from a few billion to now trillions. You know, companies, everyone going now to trillions. IPOs, they go to trillions.

25:34 So, the stock market doesn't seem to care about diminishing returns. Why should crypto? Because crypto is relative to other assets. So if stock market keeps performing like it has been during the last years and AI goes to you know even more trillion and trillion I think crypto is also going to follow because also divi debasement this and that dollars becoming worthless there's a good chance that uh this bull market is going to surprise everyone I know it doesn't seem like it now because we're down a bit 15%.

26:01 But I think there's a good chance the the next bull market is going to surprise everyone. Why? Because everyone is now thinking in bigger numbers. the whole financial market they're thinking in trillions. Now uh five years ago no one was really thinking in trillions. Now you have anthropic IPO like 1.5 trillion. Open AI wants to do IPO 1.5 trillion.

26:21 SpaceX like everyone's thinking in trillions. Okay, everyone think is thinking in trillions. So financial markets now they have big number and Bitcoin is part of financial market. So Bitcoin is also going to be pulled up. it's going to be pulled up to to the same to to the same uh uh benchmark you know uh I have a bit of experience with financial markets because we raised uh former rallies which is the crypto infra company uh we raised during 2022 and you know the way it works is kind of like I've I've described so

26:59 with Morales the our valation was 200 million here I lost a to wait since then. By the way, uh we raised 40 million. This was when it was uh 2022. So it was already four years ago. But you know the way this works is that how do you explain to everyone that your company is worth 200 million like our was in this case when we raised. Very simple. You look at other companies that do something similar and then you see okay look this this company is this.

27:29 This is this. You kind of see around kind of like when you're when you're selling your house. How much should you sell your house for? You look at the neighbors. You look at the neighbors, this guy sold here, blah, blah, blah. And then you find your price with the company is the same. I mean, I I have firsthand experience here. And Bitcoin is also going to be the same because Bitcoin is kind of tech.

27:46 It's it's sound money, but it's also tech. Look at what tech is doing. Tech is going to trillions and trillions and you know, number very very big and bigger and bigger and bigger. That's why there is a there is a possibility that the bull market is going to surprise everyone because everyone thinks we're just going to have lower and lower returns. But listen, tech now is is way bigger.

28:06 Way way bigger. Yeah. So that's that. Uh the that's interesting also. Doy Doky7 says the whole crypto market cap is is just 2.5 trillion. Exactly. It's like one anthropic. Okay. It's one anthropic and half of SpaceX. That's the whole crypto market. Isn't that crazy, guys? It's too cheap. I'm telling you, it's too cheap. It's too cheap. You know, the the the grandpa in the psychiatric word is like, "No, it's too cheap."

28:34 like that. He still believes, man. He still believes everything went to zero. He's like, "No, it's too I guys, I hope it's not us in the psychiatric world, but I think it's I mean, why is Dash crashing? Uh, don't you know it? Because Zcash is bare trend already long time ago. It's bare trend since here and that's why it's crashing. People, you remember we discussed this.

29:10 People always so surprised when when uh something goes bare trend and it's crashing. But we said here is bare trend. Better to stay out and we said it can go down here to like 700. People here say it's great. You're crazy. Listen, it's bare trend and the next support is here somewhere 700. So I wouldn't it wouldn't surprise me if it goes here. Bad trend guys, you got to be careful.

29:30 Uh all coins is bad trend. You got to be careful. So um guys, Ledger it's very difficult now with u where to store your crypto because iPhone is getting hacked. Guys update your iPhone. Have you update your iPhone? If you have iPhone, you need to update it. There is iPhone zero day. This uh bad query or it's called bad query. Uh update your iPhone because basically Yeah.

29:58 Yeah. So look here. Um, if you have an app on iPhone, it can read other apps. You understand? Let's say you have a hardware wallet, your like recipe app can read your hardware wallet. Sorry. If you have a software wallet on on the phone, uh, you have a wallet like Zerion or Phantom, potentially other apps. Let's say I do an app, I do a game, I can now read data inside your like Zerion or Phantom.

30:28 You understand this? This this what happened with iPhone. Some wallets are saying that we are encrypting our key. So even if because the developers they expect that whatever is saved inside your app, it's contained. No other app can read what is inside other apps. But there is a vulnerability now in iPhone where other apps can now read what's happening inside other apps.

30:56 So if your software wallet on your phone is let's say not encrypting the key inside the app which some of them don't do, some of them don't do uh they should but some of them don't. Let's say you just generate like a wallet inside your your phone. Well other apps may may be able to read that with this vulnerability. update your your phone, update your iPhone very quickly.

31:20 Uh because this is fixed in the newest uh release. Um and Ledger came out and said everyone's going to get hacked. Look here. >> But how do you prevent that from from from happening and and how do you change the way you talk about Ledger devices to make sure that >> you convince people they're safe? >> Look, everybody will be hacked at some point. perfect security doesn't exist and so that rule applies to ledger as well as others >> but how do you prevent that from from >> yeah I mean like people are saying here

31:56 concern is a bit I think it's a bit concerning when the CEO says yeah guys we're going to get hacked is he the founder I'm not sure if he's the founder because let's say I work at Ledger I'm a security guy I'm a security guy I was hired to do security and now the CEO just said, "Hey, everyone is going to get hacked." Now, as a security guy, I'm like, "Huh, perfect.

32:19 Then I don't have to work too much now. If we get hacked, ah, you know, everyone is hacked. It's not my fault. I mean, as as the CEO, you can I don't think you I wouldn't say stuff like that because if I say it now, you know, all my guys are going to be like, "Okay, Ivan said it. So, so it's cool them. If Ian says that we're going to get hacked, it's it's cool then.

32:43 It's cool then. Nicholas saying he's French guy. We always use those kinds of sentences. Yeah, maybe maybe is the French guy always negative, always uh uh you know looking at the the the the dark side of life is kind of like that. Yeah, I I know some French guys. They're a bit like that. May maybe that's I'm just saying, man. Also, if I'm an employee and the boss says, "Yeah, you know, it's fine.

33:07 Okay, perfect. Perfect." Then I take the coffee then if I'm security expert but man if you say that we're going to get hacked anyway perfect then we do a bit of bit of left hanging left handic do you say that we shoot shoot from the hipp we check a bit of code there maybe it's okay maybe not okay if we get hacked I mean what can you do everything is hacked now what what can you do so yeah that Um, yeah, I I wouldn't say that.

33:39 And listen, it's what he's saying is true. It's not untrue, but look how bad it is. He he he wants to destroy the brand or something. It's very bad for the brand. It's very bad for the team. He better not say it. He better not say it. Uh but okay, he he's CEO at Ledger, so he must know something here. Crazy how Robin Hood literally pump and dump their own chain, hurt their brand, and then act like it never happened.

34:08 Insane behavior from 100 billion plus company. Yeah. So, uh all the Robin Hood chain stuff to guys for now at least. For now, for now, maybe it's going to come back, but not too much now. Looking at the prediction markets, there are higher and higher odds of Iran deal uh both before uh January this next year. Well, this coming January and uh uh January 2029, both of the odds are coming up would obviously be very bullish.

34:38 Uh look here, NASDAQ 100 forward PE ratio. This one is interesting because when we speak about the bubble that the A bubble is going to pop. If you actually look at the forward P ratio, it's not that it's not that high. At the same time, there's a bit of a problem with where you don't really know the earnings. Are they correct? Are they real? Are they not real?

34:58 Because there's circular financing going on. Uh where something that is counting as earning, you know, what kind of earning is it really? You know, what kind of earning is it? Do you get do you got cash or you got some promise? Who else knows? Look here. Corewave got good earnings. It got a good report, good earnings. So, if this can get the stock indexes back into bull trend would be fantastic for Bitcoin with fantastic look here.

35:26 S&P seems to recover. Hopefully, we can get into new bull trend again. NASDAQ a bit weaker, but yeah, this one has to go just to 734 for new bull trend, which would be very, very, very nice. That would of course open doors up to to crypto pumping even higher. Uh my bet is mainly on crypto now because we're so close to 200 week and I think crypto is going to be the fastest horse here especially as the former returns.

35:56 I know the FOMO is not here. I know it's not here. There is panic now. But it wouldn't surprise me guys if we go to 100k before can be before the end of the year. It could be. I mean we could have 100k before the end of the year. Now not financial advice. You do you. I do me. You do. I I don't know what the hell you do. I don't know what the hell to do.

36:21 I'm just here saying what I'm doing and I'm bullish. I'm bullish. Why? Because we are bull trend for Bitcoin. Uh okay. Another bare thing. As you can see, I give you a bit of salad here. I give you a bit of salad. I give you bare bull. We have a salad of bear and bull as always. But look here. Bitcoin miners are selling the bottom to buy the top of AI.

36:43 This is true. You have now miners selling Bitcoin as much as possible in order to like reinvent themselves as AI company. It worked for Cororeweave. Many don't know, but Cororeweave was a crypto company before. They were a minor I guess and now they are one of the biggest new clouds for AI and it does happen with other companies also basically selling the bottom of crypto to buy the top of AI.

37:07 I think as a company it makes sense because you can get some you know some pump in your valuation this and that but as an individual uh the way I see it at least is is is backwards. It's backwards. Now, according to my humble view, crypto time to be crypto. Look here, CPI came in hot yesterday. Uh, so there's likely going to be a December Fed hike. Uh, which I guess is a bit bearish, but uh I mean, maybe it's not too bearish.

37:41 You see, why is it not too bearish? Because the interest rate is high anyway. If they if the Fed does not increase interest rate, the market rate is high anyway. So at this at this point, I think this matters less and less. And again, the reason is if you look at the bond yields, they're high anyway. They're so high anyway. They're very high. Bond yields are very high.

38:10 So the interest rate, the market rate is is very high. uh with the Fed increasing the rate, the market rates may even go down because it means that uh the Fed has situation under control. They fight inflation, they take inflation seriously. And when that happens, the this long long-term yields may come down because if you have a 10-year bond, 20-year bond, five-year bond, you're worried about inflation obviously.

38:36 So if inflation fears go up, you want a higher interest rate. So the market rate goes up. Uh but uh if the Fed increases rate, the longterm yields should potentially come down. Let's see what's going to happen here. But I I don't even see it as bearish because the rates have been so high anyway. I don't even see it as bearish. Let's see what's going to happen.

39:00 Bitcoin flashed. We know that Anthropic wants to raise a bunch of cash. W should go stable coin. See how they going to bank crypto? Also they should very soon do the clarity act. I think clarity act is going to happen because uh the dollar needs saving. Actually professor Jang spoke about it as well in the last one of his last videos I guess before he went to Usbekistan but there he spoke about clariag and that democrat or republican they're going to pass it because it's good for the dollar because it gives demand to

39:34 the treasuries. When there's demand to treasuries, the interest rate, the market rate for uh treasuries goes down, which means that it's cheaper to finance the US government. So, everyone needs it. They both need it. Republican, Democrat, it's two but it's it's two buns of the same but okay. Nothing radical is going to happen. Nothing radical is going to happen.

39:53 U it's potato. It's just marketing. Marketing is different. Oil keeps sliding on Iran deescalation. Let's check oil. What was happening with oil down? Where's oil? Here. Weekly WTI got a bit of a bounce, but still still going down. Brand gonna start a new bare trend here if it closes like this. So, that's good. Uh, let's see. So, we haven't missed anything from the brief.

40:34 By the way, I can do dark mode if you guys want. Soft Bank not doing well. And Elon doesn't like Soft Bank. He doesn't like Soft Bank. Uh, where's the Elon tweet? Yeah, here. Elon does not like Soft Bank. He said, I remember that time when MASA is this Japanese guy. Instead of putting 12 billion into Tesla for a fourth of the company to help me take Tesla private, instead invested the money in we work.

41:06 That was dumb. Yes. Yes. Yes. So the latest, let's see what's the latest with uh Soft Bank. Yeah. The what is it? Reserve gas. Okay. Some bad deal there with this turbine. Uh wish Elon Musk predicted so is defaulting on their turban or very yeah uh minor thing for us. It's a minor thing. Oh, Nvidia what's happening with Nvidia? Let's let's check that.

41:45 You know the saying Nvidia fell first be because of election and then because of erection. Oh my god. Nvidia, what's happening? Oh, it's it's going to bounce. It's going to bounce. I think it's a bit of overreaction. I mean, Nvidia is still Nvidia. And I I think my personal opinion here. Yes, Jensen Huang maybe popped the air bubble with his dick, but not really.

42:15 I don't think so because Nvidia is still Nvidia. Maybe they remove Jensen. Maybe, but they, you know, they're so tightly collaborating with the US government that I don't think anything's gonna happen here. Literally, the US government is getting a cut of all of these Chinese sales from Nvidia, all the Asia sales. So, you know, the regulator, which is the US government, who is apparently now going to come after Nvidia, they have a rev share with all of the Singapore transactions.

42:48 Let me actually check it with AI. So tell me about the rev share between Nvidia and US government when it comes to Asia sales. Yeah, let's see what it says. So, sorry. Exactly. Family show. Family show. Exactly. Let's Let's keep it PG. Uh, so guys, let's go to Q&A questions, answer debates. Smash a like. Subscribe if you haven't yet. Share share this stream, okay?

43:34 Share the stream with your fearful, panicking friends who maybe need a bit of different perspective because the panic, man, it's crazy. It's crazy. It's crazy. So uh yeah let's see here about the rev share between the US government and Nvidia the arrangement is real unusual and limited to license sales of specific restricted look here a chips to China.

44:05 Yeah, it is interesting. Yeah, they the biggest fear is that you know this Chinese spy is making it so that Jensen is selling uh chips to China but there is a deal here where the US government is getting a rev share of that also. So in the mid25 the US required licenses for Nvidia China chip China specific chips to get those license Nvidia and MD agreed to hand US government a share of the revenue.

44:35 Yeah. Okay. So in age 20 50% of revenue from license China sales Trump said he initially won 20%. Okay. The most powerful later in 2025 Trump announced approval of sales to approved Chinese customers. And I I suppose that this company they sold to uh master what is it master speed or what's was called that they are approved uh because it was not known until recently that they are Chinese also let let me double check this actually did was this company Nvidia inv what is it mega what's it called guys mega mega speed or

45:21 mega speed Yeah. Me, mega speed, mega speed, mega speed. Okay. Did US government get rev share from mega speed sales? Let's check it. Okay. In this case, they did not get it. I checked. Let's see. They don't get capture from mega speed sales. I checked public. The only rough share agreements are ah yeah let me link it the looker. Okay. Okay, so in this case it seems that the the mega speed deal was not part of the revshare.

46:19 So yeah, maybe Dan Jensen is in trouble because he did not give rev yeah. Okay guys, let's see. Uh all in all, the stock market wants to go up. Nvidia is going to go up here. uh which is good for crypto as we are finding our bottom here somewhere in the dark somewhere feeling where it can be somewhere here it's got to be somewhere here or we go to zero as always no guys let's go to Q&A questions answers debates discussions let's go what's your thoughts on East Foundation drama.

47:07 Sorry guys, I may have missed. Let's see what uh reference to source as satirical social license. Ah, it's some kind of joke. See these geeks, they read too much manga. Then they they start adding manga into Yeah, exactly. Originated as an internet joke. Okay. Yeah. No comment. No. I mean, it's it's the retardest, you know, the geeks that Just make freaking ETH fast.

48:04 Stop reading your manga. Stop doing the joke. Just make the ETH fast. What are you spending time on? What are you spending time on? Vitalik and co-executive director Bastian told staff the orc was symbolic dark humor not meant to take. Okay, just make the freaking eat fast. Don't do this joke. What the hell you do? See is a pro big big problem. They read manga instead of uh doing e fast.

48:32 Okay. How much how much more manga are you going to read? Let's audit. What are you What is Alitalic doing in free time? Because all his time should be making it fast. It's low and expensive. And the L2s. So we kind of I think the internet now agrees that L2s are kind of fugazi. I I think the kind of kind of has agreed L2s kind of fugazi. Kind of fugazi.

48:57 Okay. So make L1 fast now. Make it fast. Don't read manga. Don't do some joke in your foundation. There's no time for joking, man. If you if it would be 10k, you can do joke. Wait with joke until ETH is 10k. If when is 10k, man, you can do joke. You can dress up as a freaking bear on the scene. Until ETH is 10k, Vitalic should be locked up in a room with a computer and not be let out until Eth is fast and it is 10k.

49:22 That's it. That's it. Big shout to Vitalic. But I know what he's doing. He's doing some speech. He's dressed, how he's dressed, where is the suit, did he shower? I don't know. He should either represent ETH in a good way or be in a room closing code. Make ETH fast. Make it competitive. It's not competitive. No one's going to use ETH, man. New people join crypto.

49:48 Why would you use ETH? It's slow. It's expensive. It's not competitive with Salana. It's not. It's not. Oh, yeah. Oh yeah. Anyway, big shout. Big shout. Also, they need to stop selling ETH. Have they Have this Have they been selling ETH also? ETH foundation. They sell more. Oh, guys. Exactly. And then they dump on your ass also. Ivan in his villain arc.

50:22 Maybe. Maybe. Maybe. So Anom what's happening Ansom some new update on Ansom he said that he has access to the account at Ansom then he said he lost access this account says so Anom this is the fake Ansom account and block noise is or black noise how you say maybe is black I will guess it's black noise is an evil scammer you have no idea okay okay okay the drama just got worse 3 hours after some rugged.

50:56 So wait, what happened to it? It's rugged or what? Is it not rugged? Well, I mean it's down like 80 90% or something. Anom finally post lost access. Okay. Or it's another coin. Ah, okay. Okay. So, okay. It's another coin. It's another coin. So the new Ansom account ragged his coin and then after it ragged Anom said like the real Anm black noise he said ah it's not my account and then the fake Anom said that the real Anom is an evil scammer.

51:40 Okay. Okay. I mean listen we don't have too much entertainment now in this in this period so it's all is the drama we get guys is drama we get so more questions or no more questions at 51 minute thoughts on NFTs uh I mean I like NFTs uh oh by the way as you know I I removed the penguin not because I don't I love penguin still I love penguin I haven't sold my penguin I have penguin but it's just that you know in terms of branding in terms of um where we want to go with Bull Mania is a bit outdated.

52:17 I mean, we we're kind of, you know, we've transcended that a bit. So, this is the new picture, guys. This is the new picture. I just made a judgment call where, you know, I think that me being with my face is going to be better for my brand, Bulmania brand, for all the brand. Why? Also because AI means that you need the human human connection. human connection.

52:43 Maybe I'm also becoming a bit of a boomer, shaking hands, rubbing shoulder. But you know, in the age of AI, I think it's going to be important this human aspect more than ever. That's why we do live stream here. You know, people come in here with their emotional baggage. I dig through it. Yesterday guy was like, "Ah, what's going to happen if we go to 69?"

53:09 like man but at the same time like okay it's f actually it's fantastic it's fantastic we have human connection it's fantastic it's fantastic it's fantastic it's fantastic so yeah big shout guys thanks for being here every day you know look looking at the community is actually it's insane actually it's insane it's insane so uh yeah that's why I will be using my face on the profiles.

53:40 I still love Pango. I still love it. I still love it. But uh uh yeah, but also you know the world changes, the time changes. Yeah, but I I think NFTs are super interesting, guys. I like I like NFTs. I think that as a profile picture, let let me think. and everything where does it make sense should will it make sense to have us a profile picture okay if I don't know will it make profile picture NFC profile picture let let me think about that because in the age of AI I'm more bullish on on real face in the age of AI

54:28 because that's the only mode you know that what's the mode in AI you're a dev no one cares no one cares cares you're a dev you you are let's say you are I mean you are smart no one cares a is also smart so what do people care about opinion um personal uh view personal filtration okay you can ask AI anything about crypto but man there's only one Ivan who can tell you that he's bullish Sorry, sorry to be like romantic.

55:11 I don't know. I almost get teared up. But it's true, man. Where else you going to go? Which Claude is going to tell you? You're going to ask Claude? What? What he going to tell you, man? What he going to tell you? He can tell you about the knowledge. You know, he knows everything, but there's only one Ivan that can tell you. I'm bullish. Amen. Guys, thank you very much. Smash up the like. Let's end on this note. Have a good day and goodbye. Goodbye. Goodbye.