"Today is the day" refers to midterm election day — the case is that midterms are historically bullish: the S&P 500 has finished higher in the 12 months after every midterm since 1950, roughly 90% of the gains land in the first six months (~+14% at six months, +15% at twelve), and crypto's post-midterm 12-month returns were 24%, 44% and 92%. Short term still brings volatility and a possible early drop, but the 12-month picture is bullish and the grand strategy stays in the bull market.
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00:00 clicking the button as soon as possible. Oh yes, oh yes, yes, yes. Guys, welcome to another episode. And as you can see right now, Bitcoin is currently at 76.8. We now have quite a few bearish weeks. You have now one, two, three, four, five bearish weeks in a row. The trend still remains bullish. And today, as you know, if you are not living under a rock, we have the midterms.
00:30 They are happening today. You have the schedule right here, the closing times of the different uh states. Parts of Indiana and Kentucky are closing first. Then you have Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, etc., etc. Make some noise in the chat if you are from um from Yeah, I guess all of the states are here. and uh whether you are going to vote. Are you now in the polling booth?
00:55 Where are you right now? Let us know if you are from the US. But everyone is voting. Well, everyone can vote, I guess. So, uh that's the number one thing that the whole world is focusing on right now, the midterms. Because normally after midterms, no matter the result, the stock market is doing fantastic, fantastic performance. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has finished higher in the 12 months after every single midterm election.
01:24 Okay? After every single one. So midterms are bullish. After midterm S&P pumps, why? Because you have clarity. You have clarity. You have certainty. What's happening? When there is uncertainty, market doesn't like it. That's why in a midterm year, you normally have a bit of weakness before the midterm elections. Once once the election is finished, good, good, good.
01:46 We have the result. We know who is in charge, who is not in charge. And another interesting thing, we discussed it yesterday in the Bulmania private liveream is that normally after midterms, the power is shared. You have more sharing of power and it's less that one party controls everything, which is something that the markets normally love because politicians can do dumb things.
02:07 They can sometimes do dumb things. They can they can increase tax. They can go into work. They can do all kinds of stuff. Okay. Tariffs is a is a tax that get increased. You have conflict. So when you have sharing of power, even if it is Pocahontas, Elizabeth Warren that may be getting a bit more power, markets love that. Markets love that. Markets love stability.
02:32 So let's see what's going to happen. But here is why the pattern exists that we pump. The number one thing is that the fog lifts and uh you now have clarity what's going to happen. And uh markets love clarity. They they adore clarity. So keep that in mind. In terms of crypto, the question is stock market is fantastic after midterms. Is crypto also fantastic after midterms or not?
02:56 So if we look at crypto after midterms, you have insane performance. Insane. 12 months after the election day, uh Bitcoin was up 24%. In 2014, Bitcoin was up 44% almost 45% uh in 2018 and 92 whopping 92% in 2022. Okay, very important. Now shortterm here is where you do have a bit of volatility here and there. Uh it can be quite brutal and sharp early drop in the first month milder post vote dip.
03:32 So if you are looking into the short term what's going to happen today tomorrow maybe some volatility who the hell cares if you look 12 months ahead fantastic fantastic fantastic and as you know when we are trading on the weekly time frame which we do here when we follow the bull bare markets we care about the long term what's going to happen long term here for example when we went bullish in 2023 it took uh all the way here to Q4 2025 before we turned bearish it was all kinds of volatility back and forth.
04:02 If you are a day trader, good for you. You can maybe trade here and there. If you are here for the bull market, fantastic, fantastic. Then the strategy of buying at or below 200 moving average uh starting to deploy here is very very good. And then once you have bull trend confirmed, it's even better riskreward. So all in all, we follow the strategy.
04:26 We have a grand strategy maybe you can say because we're working on the grand grand big picture and our grand strategy is bullish. It's bull market. It's bullish. We've had a year of the bear. After year of the bear comes bull market. And in a bull market we're bullish. As always, as always, you should pause and read the disclaimer. Really understand the disclaimer.
04:48 Crypto and trading are high risk. Nothing is financial advice. what I do may or may not work for you. Maybe you you have a different mindset. Maybe you do something. I I don't know what you do. I don't know your condition. I don't know what kind of uh things you have in your brain. I guess you have great brain. That's my guess. But I don't know, you know.
05:08 I don't know. Big shout out to everyone. You do you. Not financial advice. You can lose everything as in any market. And big welcome everyone who is watching live. Big big big welcome. Big shout out to Guzman for time stamping us today. Let me know how you're doing this fantastic Tuesday. Tuesday already. Time flies. And as always, if you haven't yet, go to bullmania.com and sign up for our free free free free newsletter which um I sent out every day.
05:37 You go to bull.com, sign up for the free newsletter right here. Uh later today, we will of course be covering the the midterms um midterm elections uh step by step by step. The best way to keep uh up to date is right here if you enter your uh email address. Also, if you are a Bulmania member, you know that we shipped a lot. We shipped a lot of updates to the website.
05:59 We have unified the course platform. We have unified everything under one roof. So, you have Bulmania AI, you have courses also. Now, I'm putting briefings here. This is basically what I create before each and every stream. So, here for example, for today's stream, the briefing you can find right here. These are different things that we're going to be discussing.
06:19 But you have all the sources, you have everything, everything, everything everything here as well. So all in all guys, let's go to the uh meat and potato of the episode. We do have quite a bit of outflow from the ETF right before the midterm. 400 million leaving the ETF saying goodbye to the ETF. And currently the ETF is basically net net zero. You have a bit of inflow, a bit a bit of outflow.
06:43 You look on the past weeks, currently it's around net zero. No, no mega bull, no mega bear, just trying to figure out what's what's going to happen here. The markets are uncertain before the midterm. They are uncertain and that's also reflected in how the uh ETF is performing in terms of inflow outflow. If we look at the uh overall market, the situation is as follows.
07:06 Bitcoin is minus 1.3%. ETH is minus 0.9%. You have tether still pegged. Still pegged. Hallelujah. still packed. No tether fud. No tether fud. Each and every bull market there's some kind of tether fud. But now it was long time ago we had tether fud. Let's see. Binance a bit up a bit down. I mean everything is kind of flat. Uh if we look at the biggest gainer there is I some very very small pump and dumps but um all in all nothing too spectacular in the top 100 or uh the established coins haven't really moved.
07:43 And in the in the dump department, let's see here. It's mainly the small ones that are dumping. Also, no big ones uh have dumped too much. All these that have dumped are like top uh thousand, top 800. Uh you have Zcash dumping a bit 7%. You have let's see which other ones. You have uh Ocean Protocol, but it was big back in the day. You see it's crazy how some of these coins like you remember ocean protocol it was quite established just uh last bull market but this what happens once you go into bear there's no guarantee
08:16 that you're going to come back and now this thing is 692 crazy man crazy dusk is very oh guys remember waves oh yeah waves from 2017 it was also one of these you know established ones you had ETH then you had ETH from Korea which was Icon you had ETH from China which was what Neo And then waves was kind of ETH from Russia I guess something like that.
08:39 Uh Monad a bit. So everything is like down between five and 10%. Uh and uh you look at the stock market it's very similar there in the tech sector. The tech sector is not really doing well. Uh the AI trade uh for now is unwinding and for us AI trade has ended already during the summer but uh the NASDAQ is only now going into bare trend and the reason why it is so brutally down.
09:06 You see here from a few weeks ago is because the tech stocks are not doing well. They're doing very very very poor. A lot of these tech stocks are literally collapsing in front of our eyes. So that's why uh NASDAQ is bare. We need to be careful. You still have S&P being bull. So if you're bullish stock market, S&P is still bull. But NASDAQ, NASDAQ, we have to be careful.
09:29 It is what it is. We have to be careful. It became bare trend already. Yes, yesterday here before yesterday started and yeah, it just kept falling. Another thing that is bare trend is Sana. So Sana we said also yesterday be careful. Be careful is bare trend and this this thing keeps falling. When something is bare trend, we are not interested. We're interested in bull trends.
09:50 So when something is bare trend, it's better to reallocate according to a strategy into bullish assets. Lighter is the perfect example during the last few months where it went bare trend. Uh what what did we do? We said hype is better because hype is still bullish. They literally do the same thing. And uh it was a way better choice. The same thing um for example now with Zcash.
10:10 Zcash is bare trend. Monero is bull trend. So in this case when Zcash boop goes bare better to be in Monero and uh you're still in crypto. You're still not in cash. There's nothing wrong with being in cash by the way. Sometimes cash is really king. Sometimes most assets assets go down. Uh like in in the current environment there are actually many assets that are down including gold.
10:31 Gold is collapsing. Stocks are more or less collapsing except S&P 500 is still holding on. And so in this case when you have zash barren monero bull tren of course it's better to be in monero. Uh simple as that we don't discriminate. We don't discriminate. We are very upfront. We're very straight and we tell if you're bare trend we cannot risk. I mean you can we cannot risk our even if I love the coin man.
10:59 Even if I love the coin I love the portfolio more. You understand? I love the coin but I love portfolio more. So if you have bull trend, fantastic. If it's bare trend, we cannot risk it. So uh that's a short um rundown of the uh recent uh recent events, recent flips and also the the midterms. Um all in all the what is the conclusion? We are remaining bullish on the bull market.
11:23 We are remaining bullish on the on the big picture. Not too much has changed and we are now in the same boat as Tom Lee. As you remember, we were against Tomi until Bitcoin went to 200E moving average and went up below it. Since then, since uh here when we went all the way here to 200 moving average, the the blue line Tom Lee and I we are best friends.
11:47 We're on the same page fully. Tom Lee is saying markets are going to exit the year strong and there is a good uh chance of that. There's a good chance of that. Just looking historically, S&P 500 normally fantastic. Fantastic. And it's interesting because S&P 500 gets more most gains the first few months after the midterms. Okay, that that's actually interesting.
12:12 So 6 months, look here, six months after the midterms average around plus uh 14%. Okay, and uh the total for the year the total for 12 months following midterms is 15%. So basically 90% of the gains come within the first six months after midterm. Okay. So we are uh we keep we keep it simple. Bull trend is still in S&P. We're bullish S&P. NASDAQ we're careful.
12:41 Better to be in S&P now than NASDAQ. Uh tech not really doing too well last few days at least last few weeks. So better to be in S&P because that there you have more diversation different other companies and S&P. What's interesting with S&P is that S&P basically has been held up by the tech stocks and then all the other components of the S SNP have been doing very poorly.
13:06 Most S&P companies have been in the bare market for the past year, but we don't notice that because the tech has been pumping so much. So maybe they just going to switch roles now because a lot of these companies are kind of finding a bottom that have been in a bare market. Could be that they just, you know, switch roles and cancel each other out. So that's the benefit of the the diversification within the S&P.
13:30 Let's see if it if it goes bare trend, we'll need to be risk off S&P also. For now S&P is bullish and after midterms normally is bullish. So let's see if this history repeats uh or not and the trend is the guidance. Should the trend in S&P go bare, we're careful. Even though the history this and that, we don't care. We'll look at the trend. Uh should it go bull again in the future?
13:53 Good. Good. Then we look here. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon says demand for AI deals remain very robust with a tech super cycle set to dominate capital markets. So you see everything can change this quick. You have now people are a bit worried a bit anxious this and that. One G green candle, one daily big fat green candle, everything is back. Everything is back.
14:16 Then suddenly AI works again. You know, suddenly everyone's excited about Yeah. Yeah. Uh and you have now the first bullish macro change in quite some time because oil is dumping. Look here. Oil is taking a sharp hit. You have uh WTI trading below 100. So that's good. That's good. uh basically five to 7% drop um in a day looking at the different uh benchmarks for oil.
14:49 Good. Hopefully this continues. This would of course together with midterms if oil also dumps. Fantastic. And also if uh uh there is no issue with Iran, we obviously don't know but it wouldn't surprise me if they just uh say hey great guys we have a deal or something like that. It wouldn't surprise me actually. Normally it is like that. know how many times Trump takes it to like the last step and then ah they're great guys.
15:17 We made a deal. It's great guys. Let's see if it's the same here. But it wouldn't surprise me. It wouldn't surprise me at all if tomorrow he says hey Ayatollahas you know the new Ayatollah. Do do they have a new Ayatollah or who was the lead leader now? If he says you know the new Ayatollah is a great guy. They want to make a deal. They want to make a deal.
15:41 Very bad. So yeah there are reasons to be bullish there are reasons to be bearish as you can see you can see situation from different uh lenses that's why we mainly follow the trend uh but for this for the sake of discussion it is interesting to uh you know how there is bullish there is bearish and if the price pumps then the bullish narratives get all of the attention and no one cares about the bearish and now that the prices are shaking a bit only the bearish angles get attention and no one cares about the bullish so
16:09 I'm just I just want to highlight that and that at the end of the day you can see the same situation from many different directions. It's like this um is it a fairy tale or a fable where you have five blind guys, five blind dudes, they touch the elephant. Is it a fable? It's a famous story. Imagine five blind dudes. They don't see anything. They stand around an elephant and one guy he looks at this uh schnabel you say like the the trunk or what you say he's like man the elephant is around you know he grabs it with both
16:47 hands like the the the trunk you say the trunk was called the other one is like touching the side he's Yeah it's like a big wall they're all correct you can see from this you can see from that but they're they're all correct but the price is what we follow. Okay. What is called the nose of the elephant? It's trunk or what is it? I never say this things.
17:18 Is it the big peeping? That's the third. That's the third guy. Anyway, so Trump saying he's not considering striking Iran. There you go. So is he considering? He's not considering seven hours ago. US mil has launched limited defensive strikes. This and that of course attacker says it's going to be nuclear. Okay. Uh Jay Deans uh what was he doing? He he did the Halloween picture.
17:52 That's that's he did. Trump says they will not attack. Okay. Israel is pressing Trump. I'm fascin Trump. How is he pressing? How is he pressing? CIA director John Ratcliffe is advising Trump to maintain the no war, no deal status quo. Yeah. Let's see this says no to striking run after election. Okay. Okay. Yeah. Listen, it's uh it changes every 15 minutes.
18:19 You change every 15 minutes. Uh so yeah, let's see what's going to happen. Um gold currently uh sorry oil currently still in of a fall. Uh hopefully it can continue here towards the bare flip and uh yeah everything can change fast. So don't get too you know funneled too much into a bearish rabbit hole. Don't be vice versa either. Don't get funneled too much into the bullish rabbit hole.
18:47 Just stay objective. And how do we stay objective? We look at the price man. The price is the most objective is the most freaking objective thing I know in the world is the freaking price. There's nothing more objective than that. So, uh, looking at the let's check the briefing. So, NASDAQ is down 10% of it peak. Bitcoin is down less than that if you look at the last peak or actually they're similar.
19:10 Both are around 10%. War risk is back. US military attacked Iran's Kashm island and carry out defensive strike. US midterm is today. Yes, Binance recovery phase seems that they got the money back. Seems that withdrawal withdrawals are open. Bitcoin under 77K 100 million plus of longs were liquidated in an hour. So yeah, be careful with leverage and fear and greed just hit fear and when you want to buy when it is fear especially within a bull trend when there is fear within a bull trend normally it is good riskreward.
19:44 So the common thread is a positioning shakeout around dated event risk not a break in fundamentals earnings beat. So most companies did um report good earnings economy strong and crypto's balance sheets are adding while prices slip election day and Iran headlines decide the next leg. So yeah we follow the trend and we'll keep it simple. Let me just see if I missed something.
20:12 The NASDAQ, the oil, this and that. We discussed that. The midterms, we discussed that. Crypto and the Binance. We discussed that. Uh balance sheet. Let's see. Oh, yeah. Strategy bought a bit. They bought a bit, but they still have to they still have to prop up that uh stretch uh ponzomic. So, they they spent so much on stretch. They they spent too much on stretch.
20:36 Not not not enough on buying Bitcoin. and they buy by stretch which is supposed to help them to buy Bitcoin which is yeah it's a interesting logic but it's good they bought a bit they bought a bit of Bitcoin but they bought way more stretch um some good news dropped lawsuit against Coinbase that's good the SC released new guidance clarifying securities laws bor boring stuff like this regulations but u uh yeah guys that's that let's go to Q&A I think we got everything oil we got I told everything.
21:09 Told you everything there is to know. And uh we'll go to Q&A. There's a final thing I want to check and that's my liked tweets. Normally I check I I I like the tweet to see kind of like a bookmark. So I see them later as a bookmark. Let's see if something is relevant. Uh, no. Yeah, let's go to Q&A, guys. Let's check what Bird says. Maybe that's the only thing what he said about the hacks because there are many hacks now.
21:51 I think it's no secret that anybody who's been paying attention on the internet, on Twitter, x.com has seen pretty much hacks being reported on, I would say, a daily cadence, especially if you're a regular retail user. But if you're an engineer or a technical person, you're seeing way more than that because generally speaking, engineers have specific channels they watch for like, oh, a new vulnerability was found, whatever.
22:16 And you would get these things like once a week depending on the severity, once a month, whatever. But now you're seeing like 20 a day. Uh, and it's everything. So for example, just this morning I woke up, I logged on and the first thing I saw is uh Belgium, Sweden, France, Luxembourg, Finland, and like five other countries just are getting their fridges hacked and uh some of them are blowing up entirely.
22:48 Uh and that is on top of obviously Binance hack. And then I just logged on a few minutes ago and I saw Marcado hacked and then some other European exchange >> hacked. >> Crazy crazy world guys. Lock down all the infras be skeptical. Be skeptical. You hear some link be very skeptical. Very skeptical. Now Vitalik came out and proposed a bit of solution here to the hacking.
23:19 this Vitalic. He loves dressing up. He But since he started to dress up, Eth kind of never pumped again. You You remember that, you know, badger, badger, badger, badger, badger. You remember that? Badger, badger. That was like the peak of ETH before Vitalic started to dress up in ridiculous costume. E was pumping. Then he starts to dress up badger, badger.
23:45 He is this bear or something. Now he is, what is this? Some character. What is it? What is it? I I'm like I become too old for this guys. I become like what is this crap? Chart is in the toilet. This guy is still joking around. What is this? Where where's the dress? D dress. Where's your Where's the suit? Okay, it's enough, man. It's enough, man. Okay, it started.
24:10 We were like 20. Okay, then. Okay, you can dress like a monkey. Now, where is the suit? Where? Where? What is this? And then people ask why they trust the the private banker more than Vitalic because the S&P pumps more. NASDAQ has pumped way more. Everything the private banker recommended has pumped way more than ETH. Then you look at ETH. Man, what is this?
24:36 Okay. If you if your thing pumps a lot, you have the permission to dress like this. But your thing has done very poorly, very very bad against everything. Okay. Anyway, so he's here speaking about security and let's see. Let's see. >> By the way, big shout out. Big shout. We love it. I mean, we're joking, but it's true. It's true. It has not pumped has not pumped too much.
25:04 >> The classic problem with any kind of security is basically who do you trust, right? And basic and the solution here is openness and verifiability, right? If you want a uh a path for us to be able to survive and prosper in this new environment, a path that does not depend on handing over the keys to everyone's castle to one small group of people, then if you want something that is uh simultaneously respects local self-s sovereignty um and also that enables cooperation, then you want open source.
25:42 You want innovations that are made in one place to be usable and improvable in other places. You want verifiability. You want to be able to verify use mathematical tools to actually verify security properties of uh at least digital components. He wants to minimize anyway. And then I guess he says ETH has all of this >> influencers who claim that they're a good and righteous rebellion.
26:19 >> What's the answer? We need to figure this out. Okay. Okay. No, I thought he was going to say Eth is the answer, but he says we need to figure it out. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Yeah. But okay, to be fair to Vitalik, the costume is cool. I mean, look at him. He's like from Star Wars. It is a cool costume. It's not a bad costume. Not a bad costume, but his costume correlated with the price.
26:46 It was better when he did not have costume and when ETH was used. Now, you know, L2 is it's not ETH. It's not ETH. It's not ETH. Oh, actually there was a tweet I saw the other day about uh how who was it? It was a near guy. Near guy. Near guy. Near guy. Sorry. Let me find this near guy where he had a breakdown. Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh.
27:14 Oh yeah. Here. Here. Here. Here. Look here. At a 10k swap in Phantom. Who gets paid? Phantom wallet takes most. Unis swap. The protocol takes $5. ETH gets 10 cents. But this is in case this happens on ETH. If it happens on an L2, then L2 takes another few dollars and then ETH is the last there. You know, it's this is the problem with ETH. L2s are robbing it even more.
27:41 Okay, L2s are robbing it even more. So already now you see the economics where the apps capture most of it but L2s they they flip the table even more where L2 maybe gets you know descent and E gets 1 millent. Okay so uh what is this? Yeah, some people have asked me if I'm demonizing billionaires and I've said that I think I'm humanizing the >> Okay, it's a bit of uh political stuff.
28:15 We're apolitical, but I just got it in my feed. Who's this guy? Never saw >> billionaires because for one of our own residents to become the world's first trillionaire while one in five Texas children live in poverty, to me that is a spiritual sickness. I want people to be successful. I'm proud of of Tesla. Uh I'm proud of of the great businesses across the state of Texas, across this country.
28:43 Um when businesses are successful, people are successful. And I'm all for that. But to accumulate more wealth than you could possibly spend in a 100 lifetimes while we have people starving in this one, to me that that means we're not um fulf >> Yeah. Okay. Okay. So So you take Tesla share or what? It's like, you know, when SpaceX went from 220 to $100.
29:07 You guys remember that? Do you guys remember when SpaceX launched and everyone say, "Oh, Elon is a trillionaire. Trillionaire." And then SpaceX dumped from 200 to 100. Elon lost like a trillion dollars there within a few months and the world hunger still did not get solved. You understand? Like, man, what what happened? You guys said if Elon loses money, you know, the world is better.
29:33 Okay. He lost one trillion, man. World hunger still did not get sold. What is this? He stopped being trillionaire. Ah, man. Still still world. What's this? What is this, man? You know, Elon also, it's not like he's even, as far as I know, the guy doesn't even own a house. He's all about building his stuff, building his uh company. So, okay, what can you do?
30:00 Let's say you build a freaking company. It's worth two trillion. What should what should I do? Should I give it to the state so the state can feed someone? You know, it doesn't work. You give it to the state, they feed themselves. They don't feed the people. It's going to be the bureaucrat that that feeds himself. I mean, all this redistribution, it's very it's interesting topic.
30:19 I mean it's I understand why people bring it up but um you know having heritage from the Soviet Union I can tell you guys unfortunately it's not as good as it seems unfortunately. Okay you have redistribution the bureaucrat takes everything you need to know if you're friends with a bureaucrat you get something also maybe. Okay the average player man you're not guessing anything.
30:45 The average player you're not guessing anything. Yeah, it's fascinating. But listen, we're apolitical, guys. We're a apolitical. I'm just thinking, imagine you are Elon Musk. You've built a business worth like two trillion or what it is worth. Now, what what they want you to do? What they want you to do to give away money, but it's it's shares. There's it's not cash.
31:09 It's shares. So, you give away shares, but that's ownership. So, you give away ownership in the company to who? To to a bureaucrat. And ownership means decision makers. Okay. So now bureaucrat is going to make decisions, police bureau is going to make decisions how SpaceX should be run. So yeah, I mean probably the current solution is quite good I guess where the the tax is high in California you want to be in California is high tax maybe that's probably good.
31:36 Um, so yeah, I think the current system is quite good to be fair, but people want socialists. If you live in a country where the young people want socialist, you got to be careful. You got to be careful. They're coming. But we're apolitical. We're apolitical. We're apolitical. Uh, what else? Penguin now. No more abstract. They can focus on the penguin finally.
32:06 How was October sun? AI just hacked energy grid and I have no exact. Let's see what they're doing. They're they have some new announcement. I saw they have Oh, yeah. Here, here, here. I haven't tested this, but you can check what this is. Basically, you can get Vibes with Vibes is a digital and physical trading card game. There you go. Okay. Something's happening for the freaking penguins.
32:35 Finally. Finally, there is still community fallout for abstract this and that guys. Uh I mean if you spend money farming abstract and you you didn't get the coin. I mean I get you're upset but either you to the guys I mean everyone who's upset I I mean I understand you formed Luca said that they're planning to do airrop but was there a contract? Did did you get really promised something?
33:02 Um, I I mean I can see both sides, but uh either we move on or you you you do something against Luca and uh now you you guys are just crying on Twitter and uh yeah, I mean you could keep crying if there's a case if there's some case against abstract or something. Okay, organize do the case then I guess uh I I think someone is trying to maybe do that.
33:31 uh uh that basically to sue Luca because he said that they're going to do airdrop and then you farmed you farm you farm you farm and there is no air drop. Can you sue the the founder of the chain for that? Maybe I mean I I haven't seen that at least I I haven't seen that. Maybe it's possible. Maybe it's possible. I I think it would be the first one in crypto.
33:53 And it's of course an interesting thing to consider like if a founder has promised airdrop and said that there's going to be airdrop and then there was no airdrop. Okay, can you sue for the transaction fee or something? So yeah, but in general, you know, in our community, we always said we don't farm. I don't like farming. Yeah, you farm. You do wash trading.
34:18 Basically, you do fake interactions on chain. I don't believe in the concept of farming. Even what is farming? You do transactions to inflate the metrics of the chain. Who is that helping? It's not helping the chain really because with fake transactions, with fake metrics, you cannot grow the project properly. Okay? It's like when I started YouTube, people asked, "Oh, so Ivan, did you buy the followers in the beginning?
34:47 How did you?" Absolutely not. I wanted to have a real community. If you buy followers or views, all your metrics are crap. You don't know what works, what doesn't work. So, you just destroy for yourself. I mean, we would not have our community if from the beginning, you know, I took the advice because some people told me, Ivan, you know, in the beginning, you should bootstrap.
35:08 You should like buy engagement. What do you mean? I want the truth. I want to see do people care about the things I say or not or or not. What's happening? If you don't care, I do something else. I don't have to be. If you don't care, I do something else. So, so just knowing that that the the signal is the most valuable thing in analytics, the signal is more valuable.
35:30 If you do farming, you destroy the metric for the chain. It may look good, but it's fake. It's not good. It's fake. So, it's not good for the chain. It's not good for you because the chain can say hey we don't do airdrop. Uh which is very normal. I mean airdrop is you know today airdrop tomorrow no airdrop and you waste your human potential doing dumb thing.
35:52 I mean again listen I understand that people want to make money but farming is dumb. Like it's a uh I understand that people thought it's going to be great. Luca said something but what you do you you move money around. So you you're like a bot. You click button. Why would you why do you want to spend your time buy sell by or you know you do some stuff you use the app.
36:13 So anyway I never liked it. I never liked it. I never liked it. Uh people still complain they they wrote a big Let me see actually Walmart. Walmart I I saw a guy yesterday write a letter to Walmart where he wants them to remove PJ Penguin because uh Oh yeah. Let's see guys, let me know what you think. What you think? Big shout out to Silent Builder.
36:39 He did like this long letter to Walmart. I'm writing to formally request the permanent removal of Pa Penguin from Walmart. He wrote it to ethics and compliance team. Okay. Why? Because he farmed and didn't get. But look here, my concerns are based on my own experience with abstain. Okay. Do you think the the boomer at Walmart is going to be hm this guy has a concern because he used abstract chain and he formed XP guys listen I mean I understand the cons I if you wrote this letter to me I understand but if I am Walmart
37:14 ethics and compliance I'm like man so you what you did what you did you use abstract chain and you formed millions of XP these guys oh my gosh with $30,000 across what you bought with this Is transaction fee or what? What? How can you spend so much farming? Is transaction fee or what? I also have publicly documented my personal experience. Or did he buy some NFT mint or what?
37:42 Okay. If uh if it is that you bought some NFT and you expected airdrop and they told you you buy this NFT and there's going to be this coin you're going to get. If there was specifics like that then okay I understand. Uh if you bought NFTt and uh they gave you XP then and that was the deal you got the XP down. So throughout the this period Luca and actually made numerous statements promises regarding XP.
38:15 Yeah. Anyway let me do do you want us to discuss this or not? the there is still this fat but all in all uh the pudges are moving moving on to somewhere else and uh now all focus is on on the penguin the price is still in heavy ban heavy ban but I know some of you guys are uh are wanting updates so we do a bit of update but I'm not sure this is interesting to to most people here anyway but you you see there's basically the conclusion is that there is still a bit of discussion with the abstra guys uh I think you know if
38:49 you really think that you got scammed you should you should do lawsuit or something okay don't write to Walmart ethics what is this complaint to remove the plushy from the store because you formed XP what is this it's not serious it's not serious it's if there is really a case there is a case otherwise what is this anyway that that's my humble opinion let's move on guys because how many people I here have penguin maybe two guys uh But okay, it's drama and people love drama.
39:22 People love drama. So let me know guys if this is interesting. Guitar Steven says if abstract they obstructed. I I can understand that sentiment. I can understand that sentiment. But abstract is gone anyway. So it's gone. still bullish on XRP. Let's see. Is it still bull trend? I mean, technically still bull trend, but it's quite far down here. I mean, normally what happens when you have a bull trend like this and it goes down, stop loss is hit.
40:07 So, um, in this case, I would not touch it until it goes back above here. uh if you love XRP I mean technically still bullsh but normally when you have a coin that goes here to you know 1.5 and then according to mechanical rules which which we teach in bulmania if you have a drop like this in most cases your stop loss would already be hit and then uh you can choose to re-enter there are different re-entries uh re re-entries you could do one of them is in case we go above this this high but then it's continuation but
40:41 yeah this happens uh lately during the last months this has happened quite a lot where coins pump go bullish and then uh consolidate. It's a real possibility it can always happen but that's why also we have risk management and stop loss. So in case it happens maximum a few% of the portfolio is at risk at any time and then you can retry when it goes into either new high or or into new bull run.
41:10 uh best postwar trade. So if the war comes down, you will have a move out of the dollar. So you have for example on the forex side, probably other non-USD currencies are going to get a bit of strength against the dollar because when there is uncertainty, people just run to the dollar. That's why dollar is quite strong. after the uh the war normally it calms down.
41:43 I mean you see here for example the the dixim the dollar index. So dollar index against other currencies has been in a bull trend basically I mean quite exact since Iran war started. When when did Iran war start? I mean somewhere here in March, right? February, March, something like that. And as you can see that uptrend has sustained. Should the war end then this uh likely is going to go down.
42:10 Uh dollar strength index is likely going to go down. Oil is likely to go down. Crypto I mean listen crypto likely to go up. Should Dixie go down, oil go down. Likely crypto go up. Um so yeah that's that crypto now is not working as a hedge but also gold is also not working as a hedge. Okay. Crypto is not hedging the word. It's not pumping a lot within the uncertainty but gold is also not pumping.
42:37 So what do you want now? Isn't it interesting that since the war started actually gold has been dumping so only dollar is is um is the real hedge. You know dollar is the hedge is the safe haven. It is interesting but it's true. It's not it's not in line with the overall narrative you know that uh gold or bitcoin is the safe haven. actually short term in the in times of worry dollar is the safe haven.
43:05 Um it it's true. I mean it's it's it's in now for example the best thing especially as emotions heat up as you have anxiety it's uh basically treasure there's a treasury dollar should the war end you're going to have dollar go down um you're going to have uh oil go down likely crypto and risk assets up if oil goes down they can finally decrease the the rate and um basically continue with the normal business cycle which currently because energy price are so high business cycle needs to be kept in this high interest rate
43:44 environment. It's super interesting environment we're in right now guys because the average business is cooked. That's what we said when we talked about the S&P SNP which is not related to AI is already cooked. It's cooked so much so maybe it already bottoming out and can start building a new bull trend. If you look at AI, that's the thing that is propping up everything now.
44:11 So S&P is still around the alltime highs. Um let's actually see here if we look at the Yeah. So uh look here. This is SNP equal weight. You see here, I mean, this one is interesting because this is not making it so that tech has um has too much of weight in the S&P. It gives all of the 500 companies an equal u an equal part of the index. All of the 500 companies, they influence the index in in an equal way.
44:53 You understand? Um the normal S&P it is uh weighed by market cap. So higher market cap companies get more influence in the S&P. So tech for example in S&P normal S&P has a crazy crazy um weight. It's I think it's like 40% of S&P is just like five companies five big techs something like that. But this one you see this one is S&P uh equal weight. And you see that here we have been dumping already since August and we have kind of bottomed out here in October and now we're going up because all of the normal businesses have
45:34 been mega wrecked. Now maybe they're even bottoming out a bit. You see? So here is where the S&P is still holding up quite okay because AI is dumping but everything else is kind of going up while NASDAQ is mainly tech. So it has nothing that uh balances balances it out. Uh but what were we speaking about? Oh yeah, the business cycle. So the business cycle is such that as we go from high interest rate to low interest rate, all of the business activity, all of the access to capital which is very expensive now should
46:10 become cheaper. Business business business activity should go up. Risk assets should go up because when interest goes down, you need to be risking in order to get any kind of yield. So that's the natural next step in the business cycle which should unlock once once energy prices go down. Okay. So that's the that's the bullish view after the uh war. So guys, thank you very much.
46:33 We are at around 45 minutes. See you all when see you all tomorrow. If you are in Bulmania, see you all in Discord. Smash a like. Big shout out to Guzman for timestamping us today. If you want a bit of freebie, you go to bullmania.com. You enter your email right here. And also another thing, let me refresh here. So for last month, we're distributing now prices cash back to Pionex uh leader leaders and Bitunix leaders.
47:04 Now for November, we also have bybit. Buybit is here. So if you come to brena.boomia.com, enter your buybit UID. We just um launched it before the stream so no one is here. We have a 10k monthly pool meaning that if you are leading the leaderboard you get part of this uh 10k monthly cash back. And the way it works is that you cannot withdraw it but you can use it to create new trades.
47:33 That's why we call it not price but it's a cash back is a cashback. So while you are trading on by bit I know many of you guys are trading on by bit. Go to arena.bullmea.com bulmia.com and just connect your buy bit here. So you're trading anyway and here you can get a bit of cash back from your buy bit from your Bit Unix uh from your Pionex and to participate in all all of these uh cashbacks you need to have volume every month above 100K but it's easy to get especially if you trade with leverage I mean your volume
48:05 becomes very high very fast uh you make a 10x trade with let's say 1K uh is already 10K so the uh volume is always including leverage and then you know you enter trade, you close it, that's that's double. So let's say you have $1,000. You open a trade 10x, it counts like 10K. You close the same trade, now it is 20K. You understand? So don't be afraid.
48:28 Basically, uh I'm not telling you to trade 10x, but I'm just telling you if you are trading anyway, don't get afraid with this minimum requirement of 100K volume because you probably are above it. Okay? If you have any kind of money in bybit or pionex or or bitunix and you trade with leverage or spot or spot it's easier than it sounds to get above 100k.
48:47 So just ensure that you connect your stuff here uh by bitunix bionex and uh for example in pionx this guy is the first guy who is above 100k for November. This guy is almost there. So we have one guy qualifying for Pionex 10k Bit Unix. We have this guy, the only one. And uh here are the other ones not qualifying yet. And by bit, we just launched, so no one is here yet. You can be the first one. Go to arena.boomman.com, guys. Thank you very much. Bye-bye.