Bitcoin vs. the Midterms: Will Election Night Trigger a Massive Move? Transcript, AI Summary & Key Points

00:03 Welcome back to Cryptos are Us. I am George. We're all George. Welcome to another market open stream. Today is election day midterms. What is Bitcoin going to do? Well, let's talk about what normally happens after midterms and why it's so bullish and other things that's going on today. All right, let's do it, guys. Let's do it. Welcome, welcome, welcome.

00:41 Well, I didn't mean to show my Pandora, but we are starting out a day at 77,300. So, slightly lower than yesterday. yesterday was was I don't know it was kind of brutal for stocks once again. Tech sell off even though seemed like things were going okay and then it just got worse and worse and worse. We did have a couple of earnings report after market and they were good but the forecast were both like so so and then now they're selling off but that can change today.

01:20 We'll see. Uh right now the US market is opening up minus 200 for DAO plus 100 for NASDAQ. Okay. Um, obviously today is midterms, right? So, everyone is going out and uh and voting. Well, I don't know if everyone but but it is it is voting day and uh we'll see what happens. So, as of right now, the percentages, okay, show that it's highly, highly likely that after today, the Democrats will hold the House and will hold the Senate, too.

02:05 So there's a less chance of that happening with the Senate, but still I the last time I checked it was like 86% for the House and like 64% for the Senate. So if both flip to to Democrat controlled, then uh Trump is going to have a very hard time pushing any of his agenda forward. So, we'll we'll see what happens. Even yesterday, he came out and said something like the Democrats win.

02:43 He may pardon Elon Musk. I don't even know what that means. What he's pardoning for. You can't pardon someone for all future crimes, can you? I have I actually don't know what that means. Can a president do that? Pardon a person from all future crimes? I don't even know what crime was committed other than greed at at this point. I don't know. Uh or false promises.

03:12 But anyways, but how does that relate back to what we care about investments, Bitcoin, crypto? Well, this is why you should care. Okay? And I've shown charts about this. Bitcoin and crypto and stocks and just basically all investments, they go up to the moon after midterms. And I've shown a lot of charts about this. It doesn't start right at midterms, but like shortly afterwards, that's when everything starts moving in a big way.

03:48 2014, after 12 months, markets went up 24.5%. 2018 went up 44.9%. In 2022, after 12 months, 92.3%. So, they've been actually almost like like doubling like clockwork. So, we're going to see 180% after 12 months, maybe because we are so low. We are so oversold right now, right, with Bitcoin, with most of the big caps, with tech. tech has been selling off no matter what, right?

04:27 So, there actually could be a chance that we double again 12 months from now, November of next year, we may see 180%. From where we are and that that's actually wouldn't be that wouldn't be that outrageous, too, because that would put Bitcoin like roughly around 200 something thousand dollars, which it should be there already. But yeah, that that's usually what happens.

04:55 Okay, so this is why this is why you need to stay in the game, why you need to hold and DCA because after the bad normally leading up to midterms or elections, you have this fall and you bottom out and then you have a tremendous rise, right? And that rise part, the bullish part is the part that you don't want to miss. So, we'll see. We'll see what happens today.

05:30 Uh oil and also right after midterms, you know, people are wondering if we're going to go to war or further into war with strikes and stuff like that. Oil is kind of going up and down. It's been it's been like very volatile. fell down a little bit because people are hoping there is a diplomatic way to end the war, but there's been a lot of talks about more strikes afterwards.

05:52 So, we'll see if if we do have a conclusion or a force conclusion and both the House and the Senate both say we're not going to do this anymore and we're pulled out of the war, uh maybe that'll end this. maybe that oil goes down that maybe we have less to worry about in terms of inflation because it's not just us. Everyone is dealing with the same thing.

06:22 Look at this headline. Australia hikes rates to 18-year high to fight inflation. 18-year high. Same thing happening Europe, in Asia, here in US. We're facing high inflation. This is the reason why the Fed is is stuck between a rock and a hard place because they have to do something to curb inflation, but the overall economy isn't doing well either. So, it's like they have to choose between saving jobs or the economy or saving inflation, right?

06:57 Um, so yeah, that's no good. But maybe we'll get a conclusion of the war soon. one way or another. Outside of those things, I did mention earnings. Apple and Palunteer, they both reported yesterday and they actually made money hand over fist. I mean, they're pulling in billions upon billions of revenue and profit, but their weak outcast or forecast.

07:26 You know, Apple said that their margins might be thinner because of how expensive things are with AI, with memory chips. You know, market didn't like that. I mean, the Wall Street just find an excuse to sell off anything right now, right? Everyone's kind of fearful and they're just selling off, but this is a great time to be loading up because what I just showed you guys, history doesn't repeat, but tends to rhyme.

07:54 And if you look at the last 20 years, okay, after midterms is when things get really, really good. So, we'll see. We'll see what happens. We'll see what happens. Uh, also Anthropic, they updated their S1. Uh, they made another 17 billion dollars in Q3. So, they are making money, a lot of money already. A giant. They have commitments of almost $900 billion dollar in terms of buying compute.

08:31 Okay, think about it. Buying that much compute, almost a trillion dollars worth of compute. And that means all the tech companies that are supplying the data centers with rack mount servers and storage and memory and GPUs and everything. Think about how much money they're making, right? So again, this tech selloff doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Just driven mostly by fear.

08:59 If you look at the numbers, they're making so much money and it's not going to stop anytime soon because Anthropic and Open AAI and Google and others, they're committing so much money into it. So yeah, and then AMD is also reporting. AMD is reporting after hours today, so we'll see. They have a tremendous quarter as well. Um, we'll see. And Eratista Networks, although I'm not familiar with them.

09:37 All right, going back to Bitcoin and crypto. Yesterday again, we didn't have a good ETF day. We had minus400 million. So that's two days in a row almost adding to a billion outflow again kind of, you know, kind of the same as tech. People are just selling off because they're fearful. They see Bitcoin and there's a lot of people that are capitulating.

10:00 This happens every single cycle toward the bottom. You see a lot of like famous, influential or or rich people come out and say, "Well, I I don't think we're gonna go anywhere." Okay. I I I don't think the Jason Calakanakis, I think that's how you say it. Kind of like a famous investor, he's been making a big deal on all podcast. Same thing with Shamath, which makes no sense.

10:25 Shamas was like one of the biggest Bitcoin bulls ever. At one point, he held 5% of Bitcoin. That's how much he believed it. He told people to go buy it. Now he's like, I, you know, I don't believe in Bitcoin anymore. I'm going sell it off. And Jason says, you know, Bitcoin will never hit all-time high. So Grant Cardone, who has big Bitcoin, you know, orange pill.

10:45 Um, he challenged him. He's like, okay, if you think that, let's put let's bet a million dollars. Give me until 2028. And then Jason's like giving excuses left and right. He doesn't want to take that bet. I mean, you got all these guys. I saw someone else, too. some other investor that just said, a couple investors that said, "I'm selling Bitcoin because I think it's not interesting anymore.

11:09 AI is more interesting." I mean, sure, AI is interesting, but AI and Bitcoin, two different things. And I've always said that, too. Bitcoin and tech stocks, two different things. It's very different. And there's no reason why you can't hold both. It's not one or the other. You know, it's the same way with crypto, altcoins, and Bitcoin. They're different, too.

11:32 One is a digital store of value. One is a digital version of gold basically. And others are forms of uh their base layers. They're transport layers. They're digital code, smart contracts, you know, stuff like that. Um, so they're they're actually different in many many many many ways, but too many people don't quite understand. They don't realize the scarcity factor and they don't realize a lot of things.

12:01 So they kind of equate everything to being the same. And that's a mistake. Every cycle, it's been the same way. Towards the bottom, you have a lot of guys that just capitulate and just disappear or turn really bearish. Okay? And then all of a sudden we recover up and they're back on a bandwagon every single time. Just wait until Bitcoin gets back above 100, breaks 126 and some of these guys will say, "Oh yeah, I was wrong.

12:27 You know, I should have never said that." It's going to happen again. Um, Binance's net inflow turns positive. Okay. After the big hack, they had nearly as much being withdrawn, like almost 5.6 billion being withdrawn, and now some of that is coming back in. So, people can't help themselves. They still love and trust Binance. Uh, Binance has spent half of its Safeu reserve, about half a billion, and then they said they're go replenish other things from the treasury and all this other stuff, but it's only adding up to

13:11 about a billion. So, they were hacked for 6.3 billion. Where where's all that extra? I guess maybe a lot of it locked up with Circle and Tether and they're go get that back, but seems like there's still more money missing. I don't know where they're going to get that from. Um I did see like arbitrum they took back 30 million of the hack funds even without the key they change their network protocol just to remove the 30 million right which a lot of people will say yeah this is a good thing you take away from the hackers

13:45 but if you think about it one of the the big ethos of crypto is once you send it no one can stop it right so in this case. I think there's some controversy. Should a chain change its own protocol to be able to remove crypto from its network or spend it? Um, yeah, I don't know. I don't know the right answer to this, but if you are like a diehard blockchain guy, uh, then the answer is no.

14:21 you know, the the console in this case, like a 12 person committee, uh, rewrote the the contract to to do this. But if you're like a diehard crypto guy, you're like, that should have never been done. This sets the president with other chains, right? What if the government, for example, what if the US government comes in and tells arbitum, uh, I want you guys to rewrite it so that we could take all the crypto off of the chain or they go comply, right?

14:51 Now that the government knows that they have the ability to do so, so what about other chains? Can they be compelled to do the same thing? So, it leads to a slippery slope, but in this case, it's for good reasons. But who knows what other nefarious things that could happen in the future. But uh yeah, there's no no good answer to this, but it still seems like Binance is missing a lot of a lot of funds.

15:21 I don't know where it's coming from. No idea. Uh North Korea actually they're coming out and says uh they deny they deny that they were behind the hack and it wasn't Lazarus this time. It's FBI points to a group called Trader Trader. Um, and North Korea says, "You Americans, all you do is point fingers at us. We weren't behind this." I don't know. I don't know if that's true or not.

15:47 Like, if if you were behind the hack, right? Like, if as a country, North Korea, would would you want to take credit or would you want to deny it? You don't know. I I don't know the I don't know the best way to Yeah, I I don't I don't know if it's better to just take credit and say, "Hey, you know, you you dumb exchanges. You know, I'm you know, we're able to hack you left and right."

16:13 Or it's better to just pretend you didn't do it. You know, I actually don't know what be better in this case. Um, all right. What else? What else? Well, besides all the negativity, because it seems like there are a lot, you still have positive people and positive countries and companies that are still holding on strong. Tether, which has now become a a behemoth, they're probably the biggest right behind Binance.

16:48 They may be even worth more than Binance at this point. They have they just make so much money from all the transactions and all the buys and sells and everything and the swaps that happen. They make so much money. If they were a public trade company, they would be worth trillions. Okay? If they were in the US market, they'll probably be worth anywhere from one to two trillion dollars.

17:12 Um they're making that much money to justify that. But they hold 150,000 Bitcoin, which is enormous, right behind Sailor. But most people don't pay attention to them because they're not publicly traded. Okay? They should they probably should go raise money because they they would be a $2 trillion company. Um, but they continue to buy every quarter. They take some of their profits.

17:38 They go buy Bitcoin, but they also buy gold. They also go buy bonds. they like they recently got audited. They have more funds than they need to have and they're just like going all out. But it's good to see that they are using a lot of it to buy Bitcoin and hold Bitcoin. That's the proper way to do it. Any I I feel like any crypto company, if they are making money, a lot of money, handover fist, and they have all this profit, they should do something for the community, which is to go buy and hold Bitcoin.

18:11 That's the right thing to do because without it, they wouldn't exist. None of these companies, none of these chains, none of these protocols would exist. Strive is also doing the same thing. They don't have nearly as much, but still they keep buying more and more and more. They're up to 43,000 Bitcoin. So, they may become the second largest public Bitcoin holder, right?

18:34 But still pales in comparison to Tether and some of the other projects. Uh lastly, I'll show you guys this this blue line right here, right? I don't know what what moving average this is, but it's some kind of moving average. This is on a monthly scale, but every single time, every single time Bitcoin hits that moving average, could be the 50we or 100 week, there are a lot of these, right?

19:08 Every time we hit it, sometimes we break through it. Like this one 2022 FTX black swan that was horrible. But every time we go through it, we break through or we touch upon it. What happens afterwards is really good. Really good. And it happens to be like all election years too if you look at it right. Uh outside of 2020 because 2020 was a different story, a different beast.

19:41 All right, that's pretty much it today. Let's see what happens. But based on history, good things happen after midterms, after elections, after midterms. Very good things happen. So, we will see. All right, let's do some Q&A. Binance hack with Binance. A lot of people think that. A lot of people think it's all it's all insiders. Okay. Um yeah, we just don't just don't know.

20:52 Just don't know. There may be shady things going on behind the scenes, but like two October in a row, right, related to Binance. So, have I bought any SpaceX? I do own some SpaceX. I own options that expire in March. So, they are down right now. Hopefully, they can recover. I I just feel like this tech selloff right now is unwarranted. A lot of people, a lot of people on Wall Street, you know, they're just selling off tech right now.

21:27 Any little thing they're selling off, but it's nowhere close to do bubble. And I mean, you could see it with the numbers. Anthropic has 900 billion committed in the next few years. And that's just from one company. Open AAI probably have just as much and Google has just as much. And then you got other cloud providers like Amazon and Microsoft. You know, their cloud services going through the roof.

21:56 Hardware makers like Amazon are selling like crazy. So, I think we're going to have a huge recovery once we bottom. We're going to have a huge recovery and then not look back. Today is green green for NASDAQ. So that's good. I don't know. I just feel like uh I just feel like too many people are giving up on crypto right now. Yeah, obviously AI is interesting.

22:46 It's more interesting. It's more interesting because of what's being built, right? Like for me, I can't get enough AI. Like if I don't if I don't talk to my agents and build something every day, I feel like something's wrong, right? Um, and sure I invest in AI companies, but that doesn't take my faith uh away from Bitcoin. So, I I don't know why people have to like choose one or another, right?

23:16 And AI for better or for worse, right? You could do great things with it, but you could also cause a lot of problems. All these hacks that we're seeing, you could argue without AI, they probably would not have happened or not nearly as much. All these hacks recently with web two companies, web three companies, all because of AI. So, um, no one really talks about that.

23:48 So, yeah. I don't know. I just see like all these people are giving up on Bitcoin and I guess it's it's just natural, you know, when people fall for the emotions, not logic. And that's why there's winners and losers, right? But even like Mark Cuban said it recently, if you look at some of these old videos, he advises people to put 5% of their portfolio into Bitcoin and Ethereum.

24:12 Now he's like, I'm selling off my Bitcoin. like nothing has changed. In fact, Bitcoin has gotten stronger. If you look at years ago, it was only like $3,000, 10,000, 20,000. Now, it's like at 80,000 has to prove itself. It's it's and we have billions in ETFs. Like now there's no fear of Bitcoin being shut down or or going to zero. Yet these guys are now flipping.

24:47 Again, it doesn't make a lot of sense. Uh, macro strategy says, "I've been building a Tesla and SpaceX bag." I I'm much bigger fan of SpaceX and Tesla. Although Tesla, they're probably going to merge. Elon's going to make it happen. He wants to merge and get 51% control. What he hates about Tesla right now is he only holds about like 23%. 23 or 25%.

25:19 He wants hold majority. So basically, when that happens, he could do whatever the hell he wants, but he can't do that with Tesla right now. So a big reason why he wants to merge is after he merges he could hold 51% of it. He holds 51% of SpaceX stock. So whatever happens in AI and SpaceX, he has basically the say to do whatever he wants. Um and that's what he really wants for Tesla.

25:49 So right now I don't think Tesla's going to go anywhere until they get merged. But I don't know how he's gonna force that merge because he can't force Tesla to agree to the merge. But most people on the board are like in love with Elon anyways like Larry Ellison. So um so it's probably going to happen. Probably going to happen. Man, this week there there's supposed to be a lot of models.

27:07 I'm hoping something gets released today. The next Opus 5.6 and Fable 5.5 should be coming out. Google's Gemini 4 Carbon should be coming out. Open AAI 6.2. Astra should be coming out. There'll be a big war. There's a big war on agents right now. I know the Chinese companies are all effed because they can't they can't really distill much anymore. So, all their models have gotten really behind.

27:34 So, I don't know why anyone be subscribing to them and their usage have gotten really bad. But, uh I started porting Clashworld to Unreal Engine and it's it's it looks amazing. It looks lifelike. It looks better. I'm gonna be honest. It looks better than GTA 6. I I don't know. GTA 6 looks good, but it's not like lifelike, right? It's still like a little a little bit fake.

28:06 Uh Unreal Engine could do like some crazy stuff. Like like I went from like 30 to 40 FPS to now 70 to 80. It's like crystal smooth. Super smooth. And with all the the crazy things you could do with lighting and stuff like that, things look lifelike. Um, so Clash World is going to be crazy when it when it's done. But moving to Unreal Engine means that you can't you can't have on a browser.

28:38 You have to download you have to download and have an installer. That's only a tradeoff. So it's the same thing on Front Line. Um, I tested it. If I move the maps of Front Line to to Unreal Engine, like the maps would look like real, like the the graphic quality, the visual quality would go up like 5x. Um, as good as I made frontline and most of it is I had to cut back because of performance because it's through a browser and there's only so much you could do for a browser.

29:12 But it it does look really good already. But if I wanted to step it up, I had to move to Unreal Engine. That would be that would make things lifelike. I might I might go in that direction anyways and just have two versions, a browser version and an installable version. Um, but Clash World is looking really good. Really, really, really good. But there's a lot of things, little things that's needs to be ported over and it's not correct.

29:40 And I always get super pissed off when the agents mess up. That's why I keep looking forward to better agents because even the best ones today keep messing up and I have to babysit him. If the Frontier Labs used time chain, you wouldn't need a new model every month. you could just build off the first model perpetually. Well, that's how they're doing it.

30:13 They don't want you to do it. That's their baby. That's their money maker. Why would they want you to use their models and build off of it? They use their own models to train their own models, right? So, that's what they're doing. They're not starting over from scratch. Uh, at least I don't think so. They're using their previous knowledge to train whatever model they have.

30:40 Or maybe that that's wrong. Maybe they are training a new model, but they just have better ways of doing it because they've learned from their previous model. So all the American companies seems to have figured out how to do recursive training now. That's why they're getting better and better and better like really really fast. And that's why the Chinese companies are falling behind.

31:00 It seemed like they did, but they didn't. All they figured out was how to distill from the American companies. And now that anthropic basically stopped them from distilling the recent ones have been distilling Astra. Uh but even then Chad GBT is not making it easy for them to do. So now they're really falling behind. So now there is a clear gap and that that's a good thing.

31:39 These game look like they came out of 2014. Well, some of them do, but keep in mind 2014 games are still good. there's like a limitation in terms of how good something could look right now. All the really good-looking games, they're not really that good-looking. They use this technology that Nvidia came out with called DSLL 5, which uses AI and figures out like how to put on better textures and and uh color and shading and stuff and it makes them look photorealistic.

32:10 But the games themselves have gotten kind of stalled in terms of visual performance. There's only so much you can do. But still doesn't mean that they aren't fun and they they can't they can't keep pushing forward. They will things still gradually are improving but just slower. I mean because there's just diminishing returns, right? There's only so much you could do.

32:52 We need to enjoy life while we have lives to enjoy. Before long, we'll be living in 15inute cities where we spend the rest of our lives. I don't know what 15-inute city means, but we should enjoy it. We should I I you know I'm I'm very sentimental. I keep looking at all these like pictures of my kids when they were smaller, like three, four, five, and all the cute things.

33:22 At the time, I probably didn't think they were so cute, but like now it's like all the little cute things that like the smiles, the birthdays, the going out for walks, um bringing them to parks, trick-or-treating, you know, stuff like that. At the time, I was like busy trying to make money and didn't really care for it. Now, I I would give anything to go back to those days.

33:48 Like, it's true. Everyone tells you, but you don't really you you don't really think about it at the time. But that's why a lot of a lot of rich people would say like uh they would give up anything to go become young again, right? Like it's like once time passes, you just can't go backwards. Like spending more time with your kids that that again, if you're like a young parent, you know, you have small kids, most of the time probably ignore them.

34:18 you're on the computer, on your phone, you're working or whatever, and you spend whatever time, but honestly, spending like a lot more time would be better served is later on, you just go realize, oh, they're so big now. Both my kids are in teenagers. They're they're as tall as me, and you know, we don't even do that much together anymore. So, it's kind of sad to think about.

34:49 I wish we could have kids where you could like this would be really cruel but you limit how much they can you genetically limit how how old they can get. So you had kids and they just like stopped growing at like five. That would be so awesome but very cruel. That would be that that would be like a Twilight Zone or Black Mirror episode, you know? Uh that would be an interesting thought process in terms of what would happen if you did that.

36:16 Will crypto recover after midterms? Just wait for grandkids. Yeah, that's what I say, you know. But now people are having kids way way way later. So I may have to wait a long time. Will crypto recover afterwards? Well, according to this, yes, in a big way, it's been doubling every four years. 24% to 45% to 92%. So, this this time, are we going to see 180%.

36:52 Maybe maybe seeing how low we are right now to go up 180% would probably put Bitcoin like uh 70 150 like it'll be like 200ish 220s for 180%. Can that happen in a year? I'd say so. If we have a good recovery, the war ends, inflation comes down, things, the stars align for 2027, it could certainly happen. Get a dog. I have two and a cat. I have I have a lot of dogs.

37:59 Dogs don't do the same. I mean, the that's basically what having a dog is. Dogs intelligence is probably like a three-year-old, maybe less, but yeah, it's around like a three-year-old. that that's why people love dogs and and cats, you know, because they just like stay innocent forever, but they they're dependent on you forever. The only good thing about kids growing up is they're not dependent on you anymore.

38:26 They can survive by themselves. That's what you're supposed to help them with. But man, you can if you could time freeze your kids at five, that would be that'd be awesome. All right, you guys have a good one. Guess we'll see what happens today after midterms. Traditionally afterwards, market blows up. Not right away, but it tends to bottom around this point and then it starts heading higher. and we'll see if that happens this time around. All right, have a good one, guys.