BLOODBATH: How Much Worse Could It Get For Markets? [Real Talk] Transcript, AI Summary & Key Points

00:00 Wow, we're seeing some absolutely crazy, crazy swings in the market, some massive volatility and absolutely guaranteed traps. But who's getting trapped, the bulls or the bears? Right now it looks like the bulls. But the day before that it looked like it would be the bears that are getting trapped. All that I know is that we spoke specifically about a very key level that Bitcoin came within 1%, exactly 1% of taking out.

00:23 And we said until such time as you clear out that level with a closing candle, there is definitely still risk towards the downside and was this candle over here. We wanted that level taken out, $81,927. It came exactly 1% away from doing that and you pretty much had a bearish engulfing candle that followed straight away with lower highs, right? So a big trap over there.

00:45 The question is who's going to be trapped over time, right? The medium to higher timeframe, which way is this market going to go? Well, you can vote in the poll as always and share your thoughts. I know many of you may resonate with this one. I'm tired, boss. But if you do have any kind of an opinion, vote over here, right? Is it going to be bulls getting trapped because we're going to continue to dump?

01:04 This is a big positional shift in the masses over here. I'm now saying 45% believe we're going lower. Is it going to be bears because we're about to pump back up again? And this is just an absolute choppy environment, 29% if you believe that to be the case. So smash the like button. Let's get straight into the show content. A whole lot to look at absolute bloodbath in the markets.

01:24 Look at the stock market getting rekt, right? And these major stocks have broken enormous structure. Not all of them, but a lot of them have broken massive structure. And it's one of the things that we spoke about for a long time is to be aware of the complacency bounce, right? There's a possibility that this was a complacency bounce on some of these major stocks.

01:43 And right now that's looking to be the case, right? You know, basically straight down on some of these, you know, chips, memory stocks and the AI sector stocks getting rinsed, right? Looking like a meme coin. Bart Simpson, Patton put his eyes there and sad face because he has arrived, right? This is Intel dropping to $52. It does have technical support coming into this region over here around this 40 to 50 zone.

02:08 So you might see a bounce, but let's have a look. We'll analyze the markets. We'll look at if there's any major opportunities. There's really only two trades that I'm basically in. One is still holding. Where's that trade over here? One is still holding the Apple trade, which is held up as one of the strongest positions. And the other trade is where we're scaling into that Bitcoin position over there.

02:28 So let's have a look at it. What about the economic calendar? Well, you had the unemployment claims come out yesterday. No one really focused on this. It was, you know, slightly below what was forecasted. And today there's more unemployment data which is coming out. The big thing that we should all be looking at is the VIX because as the volatility expands towards the upside, this is usually when the S&P 500 goes into risk-off mode.

02:50 But you want to be paying attention to if things get really, really ugly. These are the most extreme scenarios between 52 and 98. It usually happens very quick, by the way, and you very rarely, if ever, close in that environment. So if you spike up into there, it's almost a situation of close your eyes and just buy and log off, come back in a couple of weeks, and chances are you'll be up on your positioning, right?

03:14 But that comes down to asset selection. This is not going to work if you're choosing the most beaten up AI stock. Those things may never return, right? Those things may go into very, very long term flat line charts and have to accumulate for years. I'm talking more about the major US indices, right? So that's what it looks like over here on this chart.

03:33 You can see if you line this up, the previous times the VIX spiked up into these zones, this was the COVID lows, right? And then, of course, price went up over there. And then we had other major corrections in the stock market in August 2024. And then one of the bigger ones over here was in April 2025. And then we had another one that came close to that, which was also a similar time period, March, April.

03:54 And that was in 2026. And now we're getting our next big spike, right? So keep an eye out on the VIX. If you do focus on the VIX, I found this very interesting. I don't really have a conclusive direction on what this means for Bitcoin. But it seems important, right? It seems big, and that is actually where you overlay the Bitcoin chart with the VIX because this looks like a rising wedge.

04:19 Rising wedges typically break towards the downside with measured moves coming in multiple different places, right? Well, the first TP zone, if you're trading this as an ordinary chart, would be over there. And then TP2 would be coming down here at 67. So you have 566 and then 67. Now, I would assume if that happens, this is pretty catastrophic for Bitcoin.

04:39 Why do I say that? The reason that I say that is because if you have a look at this area over here, again, we're looking at the BTC USD price over the VIX, and what we found is that every cycle bottom occurred over here when the Bitcoin VIX chart hit that trend line. This was 2020 COVID. You hit that trend line, you rallied up. So this moving towards the upside means that Bitcoin is going up massively, right?

05:03 So real talk, what does it mean? I think it's serious. If we start to break this down, it's serious. You can correlate every major touch of this trend line over here. Has led to a rally in Bitcoin. And we're at it right now. Do we have one more pump or is this the moment that the BTC VIX chart breaks down? Right. This is real talk. We have to see what's going to happen over here, and this is why you don't want to ape into positions.

05:27 Right. You want to have a little bit of risk management because this will be uncharted territory. If this does start to break down, you know, that could be a massive unwinding that also happens within the crypto market. So we should keep a very close eye on it. But we'll talk about it. We'll talk about it because at the end of the day, this was the trade plan for Bitcoin to scale into the position as it comes down.

05:50 But of course, it's never an all-in position over here because we need to see more specifically how the weekly timeframes line up. The weekly and then the monthly is going to be super important. When in doubt, zoom out, right? as they say. So let's go to the DXY, which is pushing towards the upside. This has been part of the plan. Perfect backtest into the breakout level, tested the 0.382, exactly where you'd expect bulls to take control if they are truly in control, and they've done it, right?

06:18 That is on the DXY. So for now, the DXY is pushing up, and consequently, we have the S&P 500 as we're coming down to some pretty critical levels, the 200 EMA. Is this a dip for ants? That's the question, right? When it comes to the S&P 500, it's not that bad. But when you look at some of these individual stocks, you know, that's a 6.2% move. And Bitcoin's hardly even done that, right?

06:42 So a 6.2% move is not that bad. That means there is still theoretically a lot of relative strength for Bitcoin for now. But is it a delayed reaction? You have to ask yourself that question, especially when you look at a chart like this. If this starts to accelerate down, it could get very, very interesting. Anyways, with that being said, you know, flashes typically below the 200 EMA don't last that long unless you are moving legitimately into a bear market where it will start to roll it over.

07:09 At the end of the day, nothing goes down in a straight line, and there will be bounces along the way, and therefore you should expect that this time will be no different. So we can have a look at these charts over here. This is coming into some pretty critical levels. If these levels are lost, I could see us potentially accelerating down into this area.

07:26 And this becomes, in my opinion, an almost guaranteed baked in bounce. I say almost guaranteed because there's no such thing as 100% when it comes to trading and markets. Anything can happen. But you might even bounce from here, right? You might even bounce from here. The worst case scenario that I'd personally see is possibly a deeper move down into the yellow box.

07:44 That's where you put in your bounce. And then if you did go that deep, that bounce is most likely going to be a lower high, at which point you can always reassess, make your decisions if we may be going in for some serious distribution. Alternatively, right, alternatively, what happens if something happens in the markets today? Fundamentally, it's usually news driven, and this starts to push things back up, you know, and this could be trading back to new all-time highs in a couple of weeks.

08:10 So what that means is you need to assess your risk, you need to know where you go wrong on the trade, and you need to position size accordingly. All right, so let's just quickly have a look from the low to the high where these key levels line up. And you can see golden pocket and 50% level, these are going to be two target zones for the S&P 500, right?

08:30 So you want to keep an eye on that. All right, and pretty similar on ES1, which is just the futures chart over here. DOW, where we had the long trade, I told you and I tweeted about it as well yesterday. If you're not following me on X, definitely go follow me there. Let me just quickly grab this tweet over here. So yesterday I tweeted about this just so if you're not following me on X, make sure that you follow me because I said, you know, free money trade from yesterday.

08:54 We took the DOW, but move your stops to break even to avoid poverty. And this was before the dump. Move your stops to break even to avoid poverty. I hope you're following because, yeah, ultimately things started to unwind and reject and full retrace. That's all the way back down. Now, this needs to reestablish structure. It's super volatile. There's going to be a lot of weird swings within the market over here.

09:19 The levels are still the levels on the DOW, right, which is pretty much this. You basically don't want to take out that zone. Those lows, you still want them to hold. So, you know, zooming out over time, months from now, if this does start to get brought back up, you know, we'll just look back at a strange swing in the markets following the midterms, and this could still be trading higher, but for now, I'm out of this trade, slight profits taken, and the rest stopped out in small profits over there as you move the

09:43 stops into break-even to cover your trading fees as well. So, bears engulfing candles are never a good thing. Full retraces of important moves are never a good thing. And that's currently the case. And there is the NASDAQ. It's brutal, right? The NASDAQ, we spoke about the risk as soon as you broke this trend line over here, that there was risk coming into the market.

10:05 And this has dropped a massive 15%. Now, if you look at it and you think that most of the funds, the big funds that people are buying into all around the world, depending on where you are in the world, you know, they produce around 15% per year. While we're on the 6th of November, the end of the year, and you basically unwound all of that. Like, sure, maybe some of these people were buying in January.

10:28 They're basically back to break even. So this is going to potentially be a flat year. Puts a spanner in the works for the fund managers out there, right? Potentially a flat year. You know, this is assuming if they bought in like between late January and March, they might still potentially be up if they were buying aggressively with their fund. They could be up like 9% still, but giving up massive gains chances are that most of them went all in on the 1st of January, as they so often do, and you're basically back at

10:53 those levels. So what this means is although the pre-market is showing a very slight uptick, I think there's a good chance that you will probably sweep this level over here, and then you can reassess on the NASDAQ over here. This is the NAS 100, so QQQ. We'll have a look over there. Thank goodness I got out of this trade quick because I would have been totally rinsed on this.

11:18 I was in a massive position over here, you know, eight-figure position. I would have been wiped, right? I would have been absolutely slammed over here. So I cut this position very, very quickly. This is QQQ3, the leverage trade, down 41%, right? So coming through major support over here, the 200 moving average, exponential moving average, which is coming in on the weekly timeframe, lines up over here at 263.

11:43 And this is historically where we started to find some large bounces, right? So coming into this zone over here, they're going to be looking for a little bit of a bounce out of that level. Okay, amazing. So let's move on. Let's go on to the MAGS chart over here. And we can see as well the KOSPI, just quickly, the KOSPI is still coming down. This is effectively playing out that bear flag.

12:03 Dropping down towards the pink box is going to be the area to watch. That is 4,000, right? 4,000. So possibly still a little bit more pain towards the downside over here. We need to watch this carefully. And then we can always assess that I think there's going to be generational buy opportunities, not for long term, right? Not for long term, but for dead cat bounces.

12:21 Those could produce you easily, which we spoke about yesterday. Those bounces can easily give you 50% to 100% moves with quite high probability because of how oversold things are. There's oftentimes mean reversions. So you have to revert back towards the mean, which is usually going to be something like the 200 EMA measured as the mean. So when you overextend, right, when you overextend very far away from the mean, as you did over there, there's the mean reversion.

12:46 So the upside mean 80% above the 200 EMA slams it back into it. Now you are trading the opposite direction and then there should be some sort of balance that's found, right? As this 200 EMA does something like this, you can imagine you kind of swing like that and then eventually you base out, slow down the volatility. So your aim is to play these swings, these massive swings over here, right?

13:11 That's something that you can do. It doesn't have to be your aim, but it's one way that you can make a whole lot of money really quickly and also lose a lot of money because it's a double-edged sword. The coin flips both ways. All right. Another one that we had a big trade on the table was on MAGS. You know, for me as well, quite a large position. And luckily, I got out of that trade.

13:30 We can lower the invalidation zone now to 71. And any bounce that comes up over here and fails at about 68 will start to drop that level to level before things can start to go risk back on. Over here within these markets. So Amazon holding up. It's okay. Amazon is holding up okay. It feels like Amazon, I think, and Apple are the two that are probably holding up the market because Apple basically trading at all-time highs, which is unbelievable.

13:54 Google getting slammed over here, coming into some pretty critical zones. I'm actually surprised this didn't take out that low yesterday. NVIDIA, wow, what a whack on NVIDIA because it's part of the AI sector, which has so much uncertainty right now with the Democrats coming in with new regulations and things like that, right? So slamming that down.

14:13 Meta as well, we can have a look at this. Big swings also back in the trading range has lost or back in the triangle for compression. It's lost that golden pocket over there. Microsoft somehow one of the strongest of the lot. And Tesla, because he's big pals with Donald Trump, is getting rekt. This thing is getting slammed. And you can see the same thing on SpaceX.

14:34 So Elon's companies are getting whacked. We'll keep an eye on this. I still think that there's a possibility that this will trade down. I think the messaging has been super clear to dollar cost average this for one year from 12th of June to the 12th of June because that way no matter what happens with these kinds of swings your average entry will be very close to the bottom, right?

14:54 Very, very close to the bottom on something like SpaceX if you're wanting to hold this for the long term. And remember the U.S. markets are not the only one that got whacked. This is again the EWZ chart which is Brazil's ETF and we'll look at this maybe on the weekly and you can see over here this has not recovered any of those drops that have occurred.

15:14 When the president got reelected, right, which investors found to be very, very bearish. So a lot of these things getting slammed. And that just shows you it's part of the cycle. Remember, we spoke about it, the property cycle, the land cycle, 14 years up, four years down. We're at the end of the 14 years. And consequently, a lot of the markets are starting to slowly but surely unwind, which is why it's so important to be very protective.

15:37 And one of the, at least in terms of buying something that has a risk on metric but is acting like it's a defensive stock at the moment is, weirdly enough, Apple, right, as we spoke about because it's still trading at all-time highs. Look at that. That is actually on a weekly chart. Still looks very, very bullish. The fact that it hasn't taken out any of these levels, we can clean up some of these fibs.

16:02 This is a risk on stock, of course, but kind of acting like a defensive stock simultaneously. And I think this is where the alpha in this cycle, this part of the cycle for broader markets comes into play is just trade the chart that's in front of you. Look for the best opportunities, right? So that means maybe you're only going to hold two or three positions.

16:25 I would focus on a handful of positions and not get over diversified by holding too many different things, right? All righty. So let's have a look. We can see what's happening as well in the metals market. Did we get a little bit of a bounce or did they get slammed again? Well, Gold has started to reject from exactly where we said stop losses would be placed for the short traders and that's defending the downtrend in terms of lower lows and lower highs.

16:50 So a potential lower high that's forming over here. Silver, exactly the same story, quite literally lower lows and lower highs. We got the short term technical bounce off of the area we're looking at, but that's it. We have Platinum as well. Put in the bounce, but potentially lower high territory. You've got to be aware of yesterday's high. And then this one's getting slammed now, right?

17:10 So this is copper. We said copper range bound. If you took the trade manually, of course, you're going to be in drawdown over here. But if you're going to be waiting for a reclaim of the trading range, this trade could still theoretically be activated. You need to see something like that, right? This is the trading range low. This is your 200 EMA. And if it deviates and you can get back above, it becomes a more high probability trade at 620, right?

17:34 That would reduce your risk like that. And you'll have a better idea of exactly where to float your stop loss based on where these lows form. All right. Aluminum also rejecting lower highs, probably going to continue to journey down into the golden pocket at 2840. And then we have another lower high that's probably forming over here right now on palladium.

17:55 And we're going to look for the sweep into 880. Now, the real madness is happening over here in this sector. This is pretty much all the AI, chips, memory, et cetera. Have a look at this. This is brutal, straight through the key support levels over here. Previous resistance, resistance support, ran it through, right? Ran it straight through on SOXL.

18:16 You know, these are brutal drops, guys. It's almost worse than crypto to a certain extent with 86.57% drop. Here is DRAM, right? We spoke about it coming into this level, threatening that zone, breaking down, getting overnight trading slightly towards the upside. So dip buyers may try and jump in over here, but it's a risky trade. It's an incredibly risky trade, right?

18:37 You've got to be super, super careful. We've come deep into the zone that we're looking at over here on MU. So MU coming into the zone, this is where we said if you were going to try and buy the dip, you'd effectively be layering your orders down in the form of a pyramid. Smaller at the top, larger towards the key supports, but super risky, guys, super risky.

18:55 If you are taking this trade, you want to eliminate the risk as soon as possible. Dead cat bounces will be huge on these positions, right? Here is AMD coming in towards this gap. It hasn't quite filled it yet. So if you get acceleration over the course of today, you know, that's what you're going to be looking for if you're an aggressive dip buyer, which is risky.

19:13 It's a big gamble. And same thing over here for Intel. We're coming pretty much right into the support zone. Same story. If you are a risky gambler or aggressive trader, you're looking for that, right? But very, very oversold towards the downside. Trust me, people are already buying from here. So these guys have been totally rinsed, right? People were T-wamping massive orders in from this zone over here.

19:37 That's 10% down. That's almost 20% down. That's 30%. By now, they've probably capitulated. That's like almost 40% down since what they thought was going to be a good entry. And this thing's getting slammed. Bounces off of this zone are highly probable now to put in lower highs, which means, you know, these things are now downtrending in a massive way.

19:57 SanDisk as well, slammed. Same story. It depends on your risk profile, right? Probable bounce out of this zone. Probable bounce, but very, very risky. You know, you could have your stop losses underneath you at about 484, but that's the logical place that many people might be looking at, which means that it could just become more liquidity, right, for the taking.

20:15 So you have to come up with a pretty smart strategy. And you have the same thing on Samsung and SK Hynix also getting slammed, coming down into key supports now. So technical bounces should be coming soon. And we've got Marvel still in no man's land. Although it's getting brought up over here, you know, the real support is coming down around 100. So this thing can get quite bad.

20:35 And CoreWeave as well annihilates it back down to the lows. Yeah, you're catching a falling knife if you're buying any of these things. Just be aware of that. Here you have Caterpillar slammed, right? Caterpillar Slam is still a very long way from key support. Major, major support on Caterpillar is going to be around 420. So from here to here, 420 is another 25, 26% down.

20:57 So what can we deduce from all of this information? What we can say is something that I mentioned in a tweet, right? You guys should follow me on Twitter. I have some pretty good stuff, right? Semiconductor investors. We have when you used to be a semiconductor investor, but now you're just a full-time conductor, right? The train has left the station.

21:19 So if you want to follow me on X, the link is in the description below. But what I wanted to go to was something that I said a couple of, you know, a couple of days ago. Let's just quickly see if I can find that because I want to reiterate that point here at this, right? Very, very important. If Bitcoin is still above $70,000 after all of this, all of this below, it's bullish.

21:41 And now we have more. We have more evidence on top of this, right? The biggest hack ever, 6.3 billion, Binance got hacked, as we know. Fed likely going to hike rates. Maybe they won't now. Maybe they won't hike rates because the market's come down already quite a lot. So that could be off the cards. U.S. Iran tensions, very tense moments leading into the midterms.

22:01 We had the midterms. AI scare and stock sell-off. We had that unfolding but not unwinding to the extent that it has now. And then government selling people to doomsday prep, right? Three days of water, be prepared to get off grid. And I said over here, you know, what else did I miss? So what we can deduce from all of this is if Bitcoin, it's still that.

22:21 I stand by that. If Bitcoin can hold about $70,000, probably by the end of this month, that is pretty bullish. But the real question is this just a delayed reaction? Are they trapping us, right? If you're bull, are they trapping you? Are they baiting you in to think that, you know, there's this rotation coming from other markets into Bitcoin? Bitcoin has had solid exhaustion and we're ready to moon.

22:45 Well, ultimately, this is why I have certain rules in place because there is a realm of possibility that that could be the case. And the rules in place is to just clear out important levels. That was the one rule. The one rule is get to $82,000 and close that and then we'll treat this as high probability of being a macro higher low, which it still could be.

23:04 Luckily, based on yesterday's price action, we can marginally lower that. It's not great how much we're going to lower it by, but at least it's something. Now we can lower that down to that candle high, right? So it's like $100 less. So if you now get to like $81,200, you can start to say, okay, the worst is over here. But this is what we really have to ask ourselves leading into the weekend.

23:26 Are we going to find a deeper unwind? This was always the buy zone. The whole pink area is the buy zone. Now, one of the things that I'd been looking at, which I was sad didn't happen, and I told you guys that off of this pump, as I said, what I would have preferred to see, which would have given me more conviction in a buy, would be to sweep this low.

23:44 And I'm still advocating that. If we could see that, right, that would be much more decent. Then we might not have to wait for the reclaim and the breakout. We might be able to default to a trigger entry based on the reclaim of the yellow line because this is a sweep of this level. Deviation and a sweep, trend line support, momentum oscillator starting to roll towards the upside.

24:06 So there's still potential, yeah, there's still opportunity that's taking place over here on Bitcoin. Anyways, let's go through the details of Bitcoin. First and foremost, how many people were liquidated? Too many to even read, right? It's over a billion, right? Let me try to refresh over here. Maybe the systems are down or something, but let's try to refresh.

24:26 Okay, 1.26 billion were liquidated and it was 1.12 billion of those were long. This is sizable. So every time we see something of that significance, a billion dollars or more in a relatively low volume, low liquidity market, we say that take a step back and look at how price is reacting to certain key levels relative to this tweet as well. And this is where we find key pivot points and turning points within the market, which means there is a real possibility that we will form a higher low over here, right?

24:56 So therefore, I'm leaving the buy orders in. Look, I want to be clear. The way that I operate for my own account personally is I'm more waiting to size up. I need a confirmation above these levels. I need a reclaim of these key levels. I'm willing to buy some on the way down, but I'm not willing to ape on the way down. I'm not max porting, like full porting 100% of my account size into this, dip because it could just do this.

25:26 Right. And you could find that Bitcoin's trading at like $40,000. That's one of the more worst-case scenarios based on this monthly outlook. And because we're in such a critical point, I don't know which direction price is going to want to choose. Are we following the orange path or are we following the blue path, which is an ABC correction or a bear flag that looks pretty picture perfect, taking price down to the 0.786, which would be 40K.

25:51 And that's where every market cycle has bottomed before in the 0.786 between the 786 and the 886. Because I don't know, I don't have the answers. I have to wait for confirmations to get the safe entry and pay the insurance fee, which is the insurance is a slightly higher price. That's the high price that you pay for the confirmation for the insurance to confirm that the higher low's in.

26:14 But it's much safer. You have insurance, right? Versus just trying to, you know, race a sports car and try and drift the thing with no insurance whatsoever. You're asking for trouble. All right. So we need to be super careful over here. Super, super careful. The long to short ratio relatively balanced. The good news is we should have things back into the fearful zone.

26:38 All right, let's quickly have a look over here. We're back in fear, but we're not in extreme fear. I think that the sweep below here, the sweep below the yellow line, if we can sweep that line. So let's just move the orange line up so I can just illustrate this. All right, actually, let's just delete that. We don't need that now. All right, so if you see something like this, boom, the move down to like 70K, you're going to tag this trend line.

27:02 You're going to go into the 50% level. You could even sweep that and go to 68K to tag the golden pocket. But the reclaim of this would be super bullish. And that should do the trick to get you into extreme fear, which is a full circle reset from what was in extreme greed over there all the way to extreme fear. There we go. And what we also spoke about yesterday, part of the confirmation of reclaiming those key levels over here, getting back above the top side.

27:32 The trading range was we said the RSI, don't fade the RSI. The RSI broke that downtrend in pink, but it had to reclaim the 50% level, and that's exactly where it rejected. Exactly, exactly where it rejected. It failed, and it came back down. Right. This is still a valid level. Nothing changes. It's still the same confirmation. We just lowered the price slightly now by a few hundred dollars, and we're still waiting for the RSI to show strength and get back above the 50 level.

28:01 So nothing changes if you're waiting for the confirmation trade. If you're waiting for the dip by trade, you want to just blindly buy the dip, this is it. This is the buy the dip. If you're going to limit order in hard and you start to find support at about 70,500 holding this trend line, you know, that could be great. That could be a great limit order trade.

28:21 But where do you put your stop loss is the question. And the answer is it's going to be very far away. So there would be the entry and you would have to float your stop loss underneath. The irony is if you stop out here, you're stopping out into range low support, which is also not wise. That's what creates the complication, which is why you have to have a bit of context and why I believe that it's probably better to just wait, hope, and pray that this sweeps this level, shakes people out, moves into extreme

28:44 fear, reclaims the yellow line, and now you have something to work with where you can enter into that trade there, and now you have a valid stop. So the trade would look something like this. Now you would have a valid stop loss where you could float it below whatever those swing lows are and you can start to target higher. All right. Okay. All right, guys.

29:06 So let's move on. Understand the way that these things unwind and work together with the different timeframes, right? So the confusion is going to be this. Okay, let's do it on this chart over here. Let's do it on this chart. So if we look at the daily chart, if we look at the daily chart, the daily is theoretically coming into the buy zone to bounce.

29:33 What about the weekly chart? If we look at the weekly chart, the weekly chart's also coming into a higher low, but I personally, which you guys follow me on this channel and you watch the show, I put a lot of weight on the 21 exponential moving average and the stop and reversal indicator. The complication is if you go in for the daily buy, it might sweep out all of those levels, which is okay as long as you have a strong reaction before the week closes and you close back above, which is again why you should follow me

29:59 on X because this is something I also posted about just yesterday, right? And I'm not trying to be cryptic over here. I come on the YouTube videos to try and elaborate and the tweets are there just to kind of assist you through, right? So I said over here, this is while price was pumping and everyone was excited. Bitcoin remains in a pretty critical place, right?

30:22 If the weekly turns green and closes green, optimism and even greed might very quickly return to the market because you confirm that higher low and it would look fully baked in, right? However, if things turn around before the end of the week closes, which is kind of the situation we're in now, we don't have the weekly close yet, and it closes red, then bears remain in control.

30:42 And next week brings into play the final, final levels of support. All right. So if you start to close below here, this is the final levels of support. Basically, next week, you have to rally out of there. If you have another red week down, you've taken out these zones, you've rolled over the 21 EMA. But the bigger problem is leading into the monthly close.

31:03 So I would say that the daily is leading into the higher low. The week is leading also into a higher low. But the monthly over here, if those weeklies don't close above, what is the price exactly? You need these weeklies to be closing above, like call it 77 to be safe. So the monthly must close above 77. We have a long way to go. If it doesn't, you are effectively confirming that you're going to put the B2C wave in.

31:28 All right. So this will look bad. This will look bad if we start to see the monthly closing down here like this, right? You're closing under 70K. It's cooked. It becomes really, really problematic, right? Then it becomes high probability you're going to take out this low, you take out that low. Everything unwinds, you take out that low. And before you know it, you find yourself all the way down here.

31:49 That's the real talk, right? That is the real talk. You've got to be prepared for wild swings over here. This is Bitcoin, right? You've got to be prepared for wild swings. Now, there's some really good news, right? Very, very good news. So if you thought it was all doomsday, it's not. This is the great news. The great news is that off of this unwind that we're seeing within these markets, Bitcoin is still above $70,000, which I said is super, super important, which means, you know, unless this is a delayed reaction,

32:18 it's incredibly unlikely that you're probably going to go down all the way to those low levels. But I don't have guaranteed answers, right? I'm in the same boat as you guys. It's a free market. I don't have insider info. I didn't join Trump's $100,000 a month inside a trading calls group and signals group. I don't know if any of you did. And I don't know if he still will have that edge.

32:40 But therefore, because of that, you have to be careful. All right. 200 EMA cluster. This is still the buy zone. Let's move on from here. I'm going to be taking these trades on this Coinbase trading competition, which I have something nice for you guys over here, by the way. So for the Coinbase trading competition, this is a great offer from Brian Armstrong, the CEO and founder of Coinbase.

33:04 He says, if $2 million, which is the competition prize pool, isn't enough, he's going to throw in an extra thing. He's going to host a dinner with some of the top traders at the end of the competition, and they're going to pay for your travel to get there. So it's probably going to be somewhere in the U.S. So you get to network with all the right people.

33:20 But what's more important is that you'll notice there's this Google form. So if you go into a specific Telegram group, which is linked in the description below, you can fill out this Google form and that will allow you access to the Telegram group or leave you in there. If you don't fill out this form and you haven't completed it, we're going to boot those people out of the Telegram group.

33:40 But for now, you can get in. This is where we're going to drop all the trades, right? We're going to drop the trades for the trading competition because it's not always when I'm on stream here that there's guaranteed to be a trade. So if you want to join that, the Bybit trading competition is over here. Step one, you have to sign up using this link.

33:57 This qualifies you to 80% trading fee discount on your spot trading and $275 in USDC. So you'll be attributed to my link. That means you can trade the trading competition. You can come in over here, click that link and join. And then only for the verified Bybit users, right? Click this link and it's going to open up the Telegram. Join into the Telegram.

34:18 It's going to be open for about three weeks where we'll be dropping all of the trades over here. Fill out this form, right? Easy. Put your Telegram handle, claim your reward, enter the trading competition and put your UID or your email address over there and we'll verify you and keep you in the group for the trade calls. So Whale Room traders will be dropping the calls over there alongside myself.

34:40 And yeah, I mean, we could soon, I'm not going to enter now because these trades I'm going to enter in are going to be low time frame trades because it is a trading competition. If you want to win, you're going to have to probably enter on like relatively high leverage to get the best PnL. But I'm waiting. I'm waiting for the trade. And I thought the easiest way to distribute those trades to you guys would be by putting you into that Telegram group.

35:03 All right. Amazing. So let's look at the liquidity and then we can start to go into what's happening within the other coins. I think at the end of the day, Bitcoin is going to be your litmus test, right? If Bitcoin holds up, whatever altcoin it is that you're looking at will hold up. What coin should you be looking at? There's no such thing as should.

35:22 Anything can happen in the markets. But I think that Hyperliquid is definitely one to keep an eye on. It's still got relative strength and the fair value gap might still come into play. I think that if you can see Hyperliquid lose this level with a bit more fear coming into the market, this 64 zone, this could be a worthwhile long-term buy. Right? A worthwhile long-term buy.

35:45 If this is going to lead into a bull cycle and BTC defend 70K by the end of November, we could be in for a beautiful move on Hyperliquid, right? Just be aware. Just be careful of this. But for now, because anything can happen, there's no such thing as guarantees. But for now, you have this trend line coming into play. It's confluent with that fair value gap.

36:03 So I like this as a bouncer. And if it loses this, it starts to look like the tech and AI stocks, okay, that are getting absolutely obliterated. All righty. So let's see the liquidity. Liquidity stacked overhead. So a little bit of a dead cat bounce, maybe to 77K or shouldn't say dead cat bounce. It's not a dead cat bounce in Bitcoin. Bitcoin is still okay.

36:23 Dead cat bounce is going to come in the AI sector. $75,000. We have more liquidity on the downside. That would allow for the sweep. So if we could see that, that's what I personally want to see. I would love to just sweep this yellow line. If you go for that liquidity at 75, you've done it. You've swept the yellow line, even if it's by a few cents. Preferably, you drop a little bit further to lower 70s.

36:47 This would be a much cleaner entry, but it's good enough. Theoretically, if you just sweep just slightly below, it's good enough. Now, I want you to consider as well the sentiment shift. Remember the sentiment shift from what sentiment was like over here. Why is this not working? Do you want me to fight you? I don't want to fight this thing, guys. I'll have to refresh the whole thing.

37:11 Look at the circle. Imagine the sentiment over here, right? The 15th of September, greed. To the sentiment now, fear. One more little dip down puts you in extreme fear, deviate, reclaim. That is a clean sweep of that level and it becomes potential long signal. Okay. Great. Yes, do my $100 DCA. Thank you for the reminder over there, Ed. I will do that.

37:40 Let's quickly do the DCA over here. All right, let's do the spot DCA. I spot buy every day, just a little buy over here every time I log on. And sometimes I do forget, but if I'm, which I'm mostly over here on the shows, then I remember, right? So there's a hundred bucks. All right, let's have a look at some of these coins, right? Let's go through a couple of the altcoins and see what's going on in the mix over here.

38:04 So first, let's start with Ethereum. All right, Ethereum, definitely more of a trap because if you're waiting for the same kind of confirmation signal, well, you would have waited for the clearance of the yellow line, which basically got immediately full retraced with the bearish engulfing candle, which is not a good sign. Obviously, this is now the level to overcome and you want this to probably slow down a bit.

38:25 But even if you get another strong down day or two or three into this pink zone, the levels persist and remain the same. We're looking for support between the low 2000s and up to about $2,200. Okay, those are the levels to look at. How are the privacy coins doing? I mean, this is incredibly bullish. This is Monero. The fact that it's holding up over here, you can basically just go along with a stop loss, excuse me, a stop loss over here at about 5, 6, 7.

38:53 Because at this point, you know, if you haven't taken out that daily candle, now it's going much higher. And if you do take out that daily candle over here, then you're going in much deeper over here, probably down to about 500. So Monero is doing well. The privacy sector looks pretty strong. Zcash is very strong. This is still powerful. Basically, entries over here with stop losses below these lows under 1,112 make sense from a daily trade perspective.

39:20 POND is still coming down, similar to Bitcoin. I'd prefer to see POND sweep that level. If you could sweep out these lows, that would be a good thing for POND to get an entry on the sweep. Sweep and reclaim. ASTER, I still have my long trade on the table and I haven't been any more filled than what we previously were on the 30th of October. So that trade is still there.

39:42 It's still operating. Big unwind on FET. It's probably coming in for these lows. You know, a lot of weakness over there. Stonk, tanking, POND hasn't taken out those levels yet. You can probably lower the invalidation zone now. We spoke about this level. Now it's good enough to say if you get above yesterday's high. it might be getting ready to go. Mars coin as well getting slammed.

40:07 Let me just throw this in. There we go. Let's chuck that in. Okay. So that was the level to clear. I think that you can be generous to the bulls and lower it slightly now to 6131. Alrighty. What about the mainstream coins like XRP? It's getting rinsed. XRP to go risk on an XRP. I basically want to see these levels taken out first. $1.34, $1, call it $1.35.

40:36 Otherwise, I think you're going to sweep down into the yellow line at about $1.07. Solana, rejection, we can now lower this level. We said it must reclaim about $1.05, $1.04, $1.05. We can drop that now. Okay, if Solana can start to get above $0.98, it begins to look good. Otherwise, just let the distribution continue. There is a fair value gap that hasn't been tagged over here.

40:58 It's coming into this zone. There you go. So you might find a little bit of support here at about $0.81. All right. No, just one second, guys, don't I have a, there we go, Daily Fair Value Gap. 81. 81 is going to be an important zone. All right. Let me just quickly check something, guys. Do we have you guys joining... Is this refreshed? One second. Terry, if you're watching this and you send me a voice note, you're going to have to type, how would I listen to a voice note on the stream?

41:44 This is just for the team that are doing the Telegram. Imagine I get a voice note while I'm on the stream, expected to listen to that. You can't be for real. Because, guys, click that link, check to see if you're able to get into the Telegram. Go over here and click that link. It should take you directly there. Alright, hopefully you can gain access and it's not locked.

42:08 If someone can click that link, even harder, so if you want to click that link and see if you can, okay, there we go, people are coming in. Alright, it's working. Alrighty, let's move on. So that's working, that's good news. Let's go through the rest of the L1s. We spoke about this, we said, you know, coming deep into the yellow box, you really want to hold this level.

42:25 You came so close to taking it out. It's free for over here for a lot of these markets. All you need to do is basically look to the this high. Most of the coins is going to be that's the level to take out. SUI, dangerous zone over here. If this starts to collapse through here, I'm looking at SUI to come down to 29 to 30 cents. SUI has already lost those key levels.

42:46 This is like super important bounce zone. I don't think it's going to do it. You know, you're probably dropping all the way back down to new range lows. Cardano, brutal. It's coming down a lot more. You know, no point in even looking at these. Honestly, they're getting rinsed. They're getting rinsed. Everything here is getting absolutely rinsed. It's just some of the things that we said would be our picks, right, which is the perp DEXes and the things with the revenue buyback mechanisms that are holding up.

43:11 LIT, it's holding up. Hyperliquid, it's holding up. I would still like to see one more flush towards the downside, but these things are doing okay alongside Bitcoin. How's Ondo doing? Back down into the trend line, but it doesn't look good. I think it's going to break that trend line and you're coming in for these lows. You had about 30 cents. Alrighty.

43:30 NEAR, how's NEAR doing? Also, it's getting rinsed. NEAR's coming into this pink box. Almost guaranteed. Alright. I'm pretty certain you're going to see NEAR drop another 15-ish percent. Alrighty, guys. Let me know in the comments if there's anything else. What else do you want to have a look at? NVIDIA. I don't think that's how you spell it, but we'll look at it.

43:55 We'll look at NVIDIA. We did look at NVIDIA. We already looked at NVIDIA. Just go back in the video. We looked at it. Alright. We've looked at it in video. You need to go rewind. Okay. Let's see what's happening on Injective. One of the requests. So let's go to Injective. And then after that, let's see how the meme coins are doing. Look, so this is being baked in for this.

44:17 There's a bit of insider buying. I think there's something coming up with this coin. I think a move up into here is still a possibility. That's what we're originally looking at. And we said profit take into 11.1. So for now, it's got strength. They're obviously trying to load up on this. I heard a rumor that, I don't know, they're supposed to get some kind of an ETF approval.

44:36 Maybe it was already announced. I have absolutely no clue, but I think that's the reason why Injective is still holding up over here. And then let's just see what's going on in this meme coin sector. I'm just curious. How are these things holding up? And for that, we'll just go straight on to the wicks. It looks bad, right? It looks bad. This is the thing that you have to remind people of, which we've done a YouTube video on this before, but I'll say it again because it's written, it's there.

44:59 It's there for a reason. These things go through extremely long reaccumulations, right? That is 600 days almost before it took off to the moon. And where are we now? I mean, you know, please, God, don't put us through that. But if this is the start of that accumulation, oh, my goodness, this is going to be terrible for a lot of these things, right? A bit of a pump on Pepe, Bonk, you know, nowhere.

45:28 It's absolutely nowhere, useless. I know it gets massively pumped by the Bonk guy, actually. You know, sure, can it bounce from here? Maybe, but you're really piggybacking off of his influence, basically. That's what it comes down to. You're betting on, can he influence enough more buyers to come into the market? Because I believe that's the only market that's actually buying this.

45:52 With sitting at lows, SPX, this is what I'm talking about, right? Can Murad of SPX 6900, the coin that's supposedly going to flip the stock market, just get ready and believe in something, can he influence people anymore? And the answer is no. So I think that's the fate of something like useless most likely as well, right? Eventually they give up. Eventually they can't influence the coin anymore.

46:15 And then it looks like this. Grass. Okay, we'll have a look at Grass. Sure, let's have a look at Grass. What does the token look like? All right, there's Grass. Well, it came into the resistance, rejected, it's come down. In a sense, it's similar to Bitcoin, whereby maybe you can start to put in a bit of a higher low. I'd just be mapping out some of these key fibs, looking at the origin of the move and where you are relative to those fibs.

46:46 You've already lost that golden pocket, right? You've already lost that golden pocket. So I think, look, if this thing's going to the moon, it needs to first take out 61.70, and then you're going to have a clearer entry. I would say bounces over here are more probable to fail. And I would say that for, you know, for now, for Grass, it's more likely to come back into this zone.

47:09 All right. I think you're more likely to come all the way back down into this zone. Okay, so any bounce that occurs over here, and as it starts to get back above 6170, if it gets above 6170, sure, higher lows in, and then it's ready to go high, but for now it looks a bit distributive on the daily. And if it's distributive on the daily, I'm looking for a move at least back into the zone 36, 35, 36 before slowing down and finding a bit of support.

47:44 All right. So also what I wanted to let you know, if you are wanting to scale into positions and you want to spread your orders, you can now do so on Toobit, by the way. So if you're looking to grid in like this, they've been building a lot of things for me specifically. So there's a scaled order approach now that you can use where you can size your position and you can set the amount of grids that you want.

48:09 So if you do want to do that, I'm not quite ready yet. I want to see how things go over the course of the weekend, but you can do it over here, right? So it will say market, limit, and then you can go over here. It will have a dropdown. You go to scaled orders, right? So under scaled orders, you should be able to select, right? Let's just click on that, scaled orders.

48:26 You should be able to select. So let's say, for example, price comes down over here to like, you know, 72 to 68 is kind of where I'd be looking at. So then you'd set your lowest price at 68,000, your highest price at 72,000. There we go. And you can start to click add scaled order. And then you'll choose like how much do you want to enter into this position, right?

48:50 10 grids. Can you adjust more? I wonder if you can adjust more. Let's see. Can you do 50? No, you can't. So you can do 10 grids, all right? And then it's going to split 10%. You can adjust this as well if you want. So for example, you want to buy smaller at the top. Then you can write over here, I want to do 12% over here, and you can write over here, I want to do 8%.

49:11 So it splits the order. Ascending, there we go. You can do it automatically as well. This would be inverse of what we want. We want descending. Why do you want descending? So, it's something that they built for you guys. I asked them to do that, by the way, to make it a bit easier for you, right? to make it a bit easier for you to enter into those trades, you can use these arithmetic grids where you can scale into the positions.

49:56 Yeah, it's for spot. I think you might be able to do it on futures as well. But yeah, you can do it on spot. You can do it on, okay, this is on futures now. Maybe you can do it on spot. Let's just quickly see over here. BTC, USDT, let's not waste time. Go and have a look for yourself. Go check for yourself. Maybe it does it on spot, but this is actually among futures right now.

50:26 So remember also if you do sign up to Toobit, they are giving up to $30,000 sign up bonus. That's legit capital that you can use in a trade. So you put in 300K, they'll give you 30K, and then you can come and spin the wheel probably 100 times as well. Connect your Toobit account and try and win. No win. I want to try again. One more. Let's just see if I can actually win something.

50:48 Bloody hell. Well, we've won 20 bucks so far. I've won twice. Two $10 spins over here. And these spins are giving you up to $20,000. And then two of them are iPhone Duos, which I know some of you have already won. Alrighty. Don't be sailors, exit liquidity. Yeah, look, absolutely. We covered in a tweet yesterday or the day before. I think it was from someone called Flying Tulips or something.

51:15 We covered that tweet where it shows that sailors are going to be in trouble by 2028 specifically. I don't know if something will change, but by 2028 he's going to be in trouble. So this is part of the thesis why if we do get a rally, let's say from here, personally, I'm not betting on like 200K, 300K, those kind of prices, right? I would be willing to take this trade and simply just trade it with TPs along the way, TP1, TP2.

51:44 So there we go, one, two, and I'm happy to just leave some as a runner for maybe if it does make it much higher. But I don't really have high conviction for this type of a pump or this type of a pump, which was multiples above whatever you would have invested, right? Like 8X, 15X, diminishing gains are happening each cycle, However, if we did play this out, here I'm happy to go all in.

52:14 Now the risk to reward makes sense. I don't think this is going to happen right now. If it did, it's going to be really brutal for the market. But if we did see something like this, now I'm happy to take massive trades, massive, massive trades. But at these levels, I have to position size accordingly to how high I think price will go. And unfortunately, that doesn't allow for me to take the same types of trades that you guys may have remembered me take before, right?

52:40 The same types of high conviction, large positions that feel safer to go in, for example, NASDAQ or something. Alright, for similar gains to what Bitcoin might actually provide. Alright, final call, guys. Any other requests? Let me know. Drop them in there. Final call over there. Please do also just go through and follow the prompts over here for those of you that want to participate in the Coinbase trading competition and join us.

53:06 Remember the competition is you don't have to trade with hundreds of thousands of dollars, right? You can trade with $50 or $100 and that can make all the difference, not only in terms of potentially winning the competition, but even just in terms of keeping your mind sharp, your tool set sharp, whereby you can find great opportunities in practice, right?

53:26 It's like getting the reps in and warming up. If we are about to go into a run where you could position with larger sizing in certain coins like Hyperliquid, etc., you want to get ready for how to execute those trades. Alright, so use those links, follow the prompts. There's the Telegram group. You can join it below over here, and we'll see over the course of the weekend.

53:46 Hopefully, we can find some trades. That is it from me, folks. I will see all of you on the next one. I do appreciate all of you, and I hope all of you have a lovely weekend wherever you guys are based. I'll also update in that Telegram group maybe some voice notes based on what happens with the U.S. market open and things like that. That's going to be interesting and possibly dictate what crypto is going to do over the weekend.

54:07 And let's see. Who knows? Maybe if Trump had to escalate anything, which they often do on the weekends, geopolitically within the Middle East, that could cause that flush for the swing failure pattern that we want to see. So I'll see you guys soon. Have a good one.