CAUTION: Bitcoin Bulls LOST The Only Level That Matters! [What’s Next?] Transcript, AI Summary & Key Points

00:00 [music] We've had five red weeks in a row for Bitcoin. And over the course of the weekend, the bulls and bears were bobbing and weaving around fighting for the $75,000 territory. And it looks like it's the bears that won that battle. And that's why your banter bubbles looks like this, right? Everything pretty much moving aggressively towards the downside.

00:17 A whole lot to talk about. It's not the only thing going on. We also have the CEO of Nvidia who cheated on his wife and consequently they're dumping that as well with Nvidia dropping in the overnight trading another 6% right another 6%. So it's been a pretty brutal market over here at least if you're a boo and you're long we did have a big bounce over here um in the stock market uh last week but can they sustain that right probably not is going to be the answer based on what we're seeing in those pre-markets.

00:44 So in today's video, of course, we're going to have a look at what is the level that needs to be reclaimed to get bullish. Once again, we had spoken a lot about this being the allimportant $81,200 level. There was uh the wait for the confirmation of getting back above that level to confirm that bulls are in control and have the ability to send this higher.

01:05 Otherwise, until such time as reclaiming that, expect that prices will continue to draw down. And now we're coming into the catch 22 zone. Why is it the catch 22 zone? Well, we spoke a lot about this as a daily area of support as you can see in the form of the ups sloping trend line, rising trend line over there to catch support the 50% level. We have the golden pocket which is just below over here.

01:26 We have the inefficiency candle on a weekly time frame also known as the fair value gap. All confluence where price is at right now. But it's a catch 22 because if we start to close down here, the weekly begins to shift and I would say that the bears won the battle on the weekly candle five red weeks in a row. Will we get further downside or will they bounce?

01:47 Right on a knife's edge for the bulls right now. If this week's candle closes red, which is going to be a long week, seven days left to go, it starts to put into threat the monthly candle, which we spoke about that huge ABC corrective wave towards the downside and bulls must close price higher. Right? Ultimately, you want bulls to get back uh typically above this 82,000 $81,200.

02:11 So call it $82,000 for the sake of round numbers. Easy for you to remember. You want bulls to get back above there to avoid a very dangerous situation on the monthly scale. So we spoke about this. You guys remember we said as you're coming into this area, it's going to be really scary. And if you come into this area, you want a quick sharp reaction towards the upside.

02:29 Now we need to see that this week. If this obviously persists over here, it has a risk of falling through. A failure to put in a sharp reaction takes out not only last month's low, but the month before that low. And that ultimately on a high time frame would confirm an ABC corrective wave, meaning we've already done the A, we've done the B, and now we'll be putting in the B2C, which is pretty aggressive downward leg on a monthly scale.

02:53 That is also seen as a huge bare flag, right? Any of you can pull up your monthly chart and you should be able to see that. So therefore, we need to analyze and have a look at what's happening in the rest of the markets to get a better indication lead in terms of what could happen to crypto and Bitcoin. And I'll talk about what I'm doing in terms of positioning over here as well.

03:12 So if you get value from the video, smash the like button. If you think that prices will bounce, vote on the poll over here. Five red weeks in a row. How many more before we get a bounce? Will the bounce be this week? 37% of you say yes, it's this week. Um, two more red weeks and then a bounce. Well, that's about 25% of you that voted that, meaning this week's red and next week's red, and then you start to bounce.

03:32 Is it three to four more red weeks, which would take you to record numbers before a bounce? That's 22% of you, and then no bounce at all. Um, super bears in the chat over there with 16% of you voting for that. So, vote over there and let's go. Right, this is a critical week. Last week was critical. It was very evenly split in my opinion between the bulls and the bears sitting right at a critical point a line in the sand as per the thumbnail.

03:59 Those those lines that I draw there are not imaginary right that is a very specific line that needed to hold and the bulls the bulls failed it and the bears closed below that level which shifts the odds in the bears favor. Now I don't want you to think that that means down only. It just simply shifts the odds from what was 50/50 to now maybe you can say 60% in favor of the bears 40% in favor of the bulls and the bulls need to do certain work to prove that they're clutching things back.

04:25 Sometimes it's better to take the later trade but you have confirmation and insurance that a major lows in. And we've also spoken about what that would look like. And we've given you multiple different strategies over the course of last week in terms of how you can adequately position through a grid trading down, b waiting for a confirmation trade by reclaiming certain high levels, c dollar cost averaging um through the noise and the mess, and I guess finally D would be trying to catch a falling knife, but making very

04:53 very very specific um limit order entries, right? So let's get into it. We have the DXY, the dollar index continues to push up over here. It had a really strong close on Friday. Will we see that continuation? Well, according to this chart, I would say that the answer is probable that this will push up. Um, and then we can move on to the rest of the markets over here.

05:15 Quick look as let's just see what's going on over here on the 10 and 30 yield. They're right in that vicinity where you should start to expect a little bit of a reaction and a bounce towards the upside. So, probably want to watch 30-year yield coming into back test the critical support. This could be coming down a little bit lower to like 5.134%. Um, and then you're going to be looking at that move up and then we'll move into uh the rest of the markets over here.

05:40 So, the Dow Jones big move up, fake out. Uh, we had the long trade on the table, stopped some break even. I told people to take profits as well along the way. And now that would theoretically be your first lower high. So, that was quite an actually brutal Thursday that's occurred. Friday, I managed to hold it up and we'll see what the market does at the open here.

05:56 But if you take out this low, which is in the red line, and what I'll do is I'll maybe just clean up these fibs so we don't have too much noise. But if you start to break below the red line, well, you have the potential for a real trend shift, right? Um, ultimately putting in a new swing low. So, if you look relative to the prior low, right? This was your higher low.

06:16 This was your higher high. You broke down, you put in a lower low, you put in a lower high. Do that again. you put in another lower low, any bounce that occurs after that is an extremely high probability of failure. And you want to be aware of that. This is going to apply additional pressure into the crypto markets. Of course, when Trad um is struggling and under pressure, well, crypto is usually under more pressure, but I'll still stand on what I said previously.

06:42 It's going to be an interesting end to the month because if Bitcoin can still close above $70,000 come the end of this month while the stock markets are going down, assuming that they're still going down, that's actually bullish, right? It's more high time frame bullish. But I would say that it's a very very sticky place now based on what I'll show you when we get to the monthly chart and the weekly chart in terms of levels that must be reclaimed and certain things that are happening on the volume profile.

07:08 something that many people ignore and shouldn't be ignoring because we have a very similar metric occurring right now to what occurred back just before the FTX collapse when we saw price capitulate down to new lows. This is not to say it's going to happen again. It's just notable from a volume perspective that we have a similar a similar profile repeating once again.

07:29 Right? So, the S&P 500 hovering around here at these lows, as long as it consolidates here, that's not a good sign. It means that you're probably going to fall through again and test that $7,000 level. We have the S&P 5, excuse me, the NASDAQ over here. And if we see tech suffering, for example, Nvidia coming down, a lot of bad news taking place over there, it's probably going to sweep down one more time.

07:48 The good news on the NASDAQ is that um you do have a lot of support coming in around the 600 uh to 630 region. So anyway into there, I think should allow for a bit of a technical bounce. So, um, you can wait in terms of the if you're going on on in getting exposure at least in terms of the leveraged ETFs like QQQ3, you can probably wait for that. I would also be paying attention just to this trend line over here, which you're coming into play pretty much right there.

08:15 Pretty pretty much right there. Look at that touch point 1 2 3. You know, this is not a trend line that I'd go long off of. By the way, I think that you need to consider the broader markets. And although you might bounce in the open and then later sell off, it's something noteworthy because there is going to be a lot of support in terms of horizontal support.

08:31 But you may first come in and sweep this level and then you can look for the deviation and reclaim over there. So definitely a lot going on within these markets. MAGs as well has broken that trend line. So if it's anything to go by QQQ3 might also break this trend line. MAGs has lost that trend line and ultimately it's trying to hold now onto the 200 EMA.

08:48 So to get back into a position of strength, the levels the same as last week. It's the yellow line um written over there at $71.35. We can look at each of these other stocks individually. Amazon's actually holding up decently. It's reclaimed and broken that um anchored VWAP, which is quite interesting that it it managed to get back above there. So this one's doing decently.

09:11 Um Apple as well still trading near the highs. We still do have an Apple long trade on the table, right? So if you go down here, Apple, I am still long on this. We're up 50% on that position and that's on um two bit. We can go on to Google. Google struggling, hovering around those lows. I think you might sweep this level at about 269. Nvidia, as we said, is coming down.

09:30 This is where it gets really interesting. If you start to take out this low, there will be support, right? There will definitely be support in the region of about 130 to 140. Um but if this thing unwinds, remember, Nvidia holds up enormous market share for every little bit of drop off over here. They're losing hundreds of millions of dollars, even billions of dollars, right, with these small sell-offs over here in terms of market cap share.

09:53 Um, we have Meta back in the trading range. Uh, so nothing to really talk about on that. Microsoft holding up unbelievably, trading near the highs. You can put this in the camp of the stronger ones. So the the three strongest ones at the moment is Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft. And then lastly, we have Tesla because again, we spoke about it. Elon Musk is friends with Trump.

10:15 And that means that it's not good with the democratic sweep that we've just seen for for Tesla, right? So, I'll give it a bit of time. It's below the 200 EMA. Um, if it falls through, it's coming back down. It's going to sweep below 260 and possibly even catch support of 209. Very volatile over here. And, um, yeah, I mean, you got quite a religious group of Elon Musk hodlers over here.

10:37 So you need to just assess this and understand this is putting in low highs and it is putting in macro low lows which means if it fails over here I think that high probability coming into the 260 zone. So just be aware of that. We can definitely have a look through the rest of the markets. Just um let me know in the comments if there's anything specific.

10:53 I think I'll just very very quickly run through uh what's happening in energy and then in terms of uh some of those AI trades. Right. So quick look at energy. Energy has come down quite significantly. I did highlight on my X account that there is a a bearish u um a bearish divergence on the weekly time frame between XLE and the um RSI, right? So, I said just be aware that this thing could drop.

11:17 The trend is still holding on over here, but I think probably you're going to sweep this level and you're going to come into about 58. So, just be aware of that. If we look over here at oil, you know, oil's still chopping about. I think one more move towards the downside is probable, but if this finds support over here, this could just be a major higher low.

11:34 Um, and then another attempted move towards the upside. I know that the US um currently sent over one of their uh their aircraft uh carriers from Singapore. It's on its way to the UAE. Now, it's going to be or into at least the Straits of Amuse. It's going to be about 10 days before it arrives, right? So maybe you can line that up and track what's happening with those uh those carriers.

11:54 And geopolitically, if things look like they're about to escalate, well, this is coming into key support and holding on. Well, there you have your answer. It's probably going to bounce and you probably are going to get some kind of escalation. And obviously in these talks, they're threatening each other more and more. Usually that leads to some kind of escalation at some point.

12:12 I'm not sure they're going to be able to diffuse that situation, but of course I'm I'm not a geopolitical expert. Let's quickly look at the medals over here. Metal still struggling over here. Lower high as it is. That is gold coming down. We got the bounce off of silver, but very much still in in quite a strong downtrend. Um same thing over here on platinum.

12:30 Anything that fails below 1659 is probably going to come down and sweep the white line which is written at 1347. No changes over there. Um you know this has to get going. The trade still makes sense to leave this over here. If this is a deviation and a reclaim, you basically have a much better entry now where you can take on much less risk, only a 2.565% draw down and your potential reward easily back into the high and probably you can extend a little bit further for about a 15% move.

12:58 So if I were going to go long on metals, I think that the one to be watching for has been the one with the most relative strength and that's copper. So copper, that trade is still there. Um, we have aluminium which has come to the 50% level. is bouncing. The level to get back above critical zone, you want to see it reclaim. Um, and we'll we'll change the color over here to yellow.

13:17 3,279. Anything below there is just lower highs. And I think ultimately move down into about um 28 on aluminium. And then we got palladium also just deadcat bounces, lower highs. I think he's sweeping the yellow line at 883. Now traders in room have been smashing it. Chris specifically, he has a a very specific metals strategy. Right. If you look at the track record over last week, this is what this is what the trades um look like.

13:44 Uh let me just quickly find that where where is the win rate over here that we had. It was four four wins and one loss. All right, let me just see if I can get this over here. How how do we have it right over here? Now it's gone. Can you believe it? Unbelievable. Let's uh let's scroll up over here. So I'm just quickly wanting to highlight if you're wanting to trade a very here it is if you're wanting to trade a very specific system regarding metals consider checking out Chris Christo Columbus one of our coaches and

14:12 traders in whail room section um this is the trades over last week Thursday and Friday so into the end of week five R so locking in remember your risks reward if you look you're risking one R to gain five you put in $1,000 you made five right so five R five R three R and then the final one was lost where Of course, the one bit of capital that they risked over there was lost.

14:35 So, if you want that medal strategy, go check out his his group over there. We are doing a big Black Friday special which is coming up. I'm going to highlight what that looks like today for those of you that have been DMing us, right? A lot of tickets have been opening on Discord and you guys are eager to get your um your account ready for the next year, for the final maybe the final year.

14:54 Maybe it's going to be the final year, right? Maybe I'll retire after this year. You never know. depends how well things go with the market. If I hit my number, you know that this could be the final year and then I'll have some kind of a sbatical. So, let's move on. Let's quickly have a look over here at what's happening within the AI sector. It's getting crushed.

15:12 It's getting absolutely smashed. SOXL, one of the leveraged ETFs for semiconductors, trading below all the levels that matter. This really looks like the Wall Street cheat sheet. It's getting absolutely annihilated. DRRAM for the memory ETFs smashed, right? also coming down into new lows. Um, you know, you got to be very brave to step in front of these things.

15:32 And then here you have Micron, which means overnight trading is coming back near the lows. I think this means a high probability you're going to sweep that that low, right? You're probably going to run straight through that low. And your next stop could be down here. All right. Your next stop could be as low as about 453 if you accelerate through this.

15:52 Right? If you accelerate through this on MU Micron Technologies, um I I just can't see how you're not going to take out that low because you have to think from a psychological perspective. How many people bought the exact bottom of that dip? Probably not that many, right? Probably most of them were buying um somewhere around here, which means they're at a loss, which means they're looking at the overnight trading and they're seeing, oh my word, it's going back down towards that low where I felt that extreme pain on

16:16 Thursday, that Thursday low. I remember how I felt um realizing that I made such a bad decision, right? Not me, but that's what they're saying probably. So, what that means psychologically is when this market opens, there's a good chance that this thing is going to leg down. If it legs down and you start to flip the pink box, boom, you're talking about yellow.

16:35 Sweep the yellow, right? That becomes the next major support. So, be very, very wary. You can get rinsed on these things. AMD put in a bigger bounce. It has been historically one of the stronger ones because if you look relative to MU complacency bounce failure to make new all-time highs AMD clearly the stronger one made new all-time highs but ran it all the way back down came into key supporter hasn't properly filled this gap.

16:58 I still think that um higher chance of failing on another sweep towards the downside. The obvious level in AMD to be reclaimed is definitely going to be over here 515. Of course, you don't suddenly just buy at 5:15 if it gets above there, right? You need to then assess how a range develops. It will take a long time. I don't think you need to be in a rush in terms of positioning into these um unless you want to buy the exact pico bottom, but we know that doesn't necessarily work out over time.

17:25 So, just be um cognizant and aware of that. Right here we have Intel Corporation as well. Same psychological story as MU for those those who were trying to buy the picolo. uh most of them are at a loss right now. Overnight trading is slightly down, they're going to be under pressure and you're probably going to sweep it down one more time. I have put the triangle over here to suggest that dip buyers that want to get exposure, this would be how you would attempt to scale into that position.

17:52 But just know it's very risky, right? This is um this is a falling knife. If there was ever a definition of a falling knife, this is it. We have SanDisk. Look at that. About this one overnight trading. It's already it's about to take out that low. Look at that. There you go. It's about to take out that low. It's like a couple of ticks away from taking out that low.

18:07 All the same story. You're hoping to find support over here. No guarantees, but you're hoping to find support and get a a technical bounce um anywhere between 800 and 570, which is it's a large range, right? It's a large range. You're catching a falling knife. But you have to account for about a 30% um potential drop over there before it actually starts to bounce.

18:27 Lower lows, lower highs. Samson getting wrecked. Lower lows, lower highs. SK Highix getting wrecked. Um and this one's coming into that level. They all structurally look similar. It's the consolidation that led to the breakout move whereby you're expecting price to draw deep into that zone and find some kind of technical support. Marvel as well getting absolutely smashed.

18:46 This one has also a long way down to go before hitting major support another 30%. So basically we getting told the same story over here. Be careful. It could bounce over here but it's a gamble. And if it doesn't bounce over here, it's at least a 30% drop before you do find a meaningful support and and put in that bounce, right? Coreweave annihilation as well, trading near lows.

19:09 So, it's rough. It's rough out there. It's not only um within the crypto space, right? The other markets arguably are getting hit even harder. But remember that other people's pain equals your opportunity, right? So, you can try and flip the script and look at it from an optimistic standpoint. Now, of course, that's not going to help you if you are fully um deployed in the market, right?

19:33 This is not going to help you. Then you're going to have to be a hodler. You are a new investor. You can get yourself um you know, a t-shirt that says MU and [laughter] and you can try and find new buyers. Buy the dip mu, right? #MU uh dollar sign MU buy the dip. All right, let's move on, guys. If you do want alpha in terms of trades, again, a reminder, the metal strategy, go and check it out.

19:56 And then we also have Josh over here who absolutely nailed a Birkshshire Haway trade. Can you believe it? You can trade Birkshshire Haway now on crypto exchanges. So 43% down or excuse me up already as this is drawing down. This is coming into a median line, a key pivot level that he often looks at. Now for those of you that do want to take advantage, um this is the offer, right?

20:19 This is the special that we're going to be running for this year. The prices always always go up, which they have. However, we have decided to keep the Black Friday special very limited to only 503 people. It's been calculated. That is all that we can accommodate because we promised the Prime members that we're going to keep the space very exclusive to not spoil the water, right, for the rest in terms of a lot of new people.

20:42 So, the offer is basically the same as what you're getting from last year, right, which is something we've never done before. It's $1,119, right? Typically, you're going to be paying $2,300 almost. So, it's 50% off. You're getting 50% off. First come, first serve. But we can do one better. First 53. What is one better? You guaranteed you're getting a funded account of up to $150,000 right from Bitfunded.

21:08 Um they are jumping in to help us out over there as well to give you guys additional value to unlock full value. This may be the final run, right? This may be the final year and that is why we're limiting it. So, we'll update this um as you guys decide to join. Use the link below. Right? So, if you want to join, use the link over here, get the offer, and then um just make sure that you signed up to Bitfunded and then uh they will email you as well.

21:33 Once you sign up, they'll email you your funded account valued at $10,000, right? All righty. So, let's move on. Let's have a look at the Whale Trade site. And this is where it gets very interesting and we start to look at the volumes, right? So what we can see over here is the long toshort ratio is pretty evenly uh split right now. But that wasn't the case on the weekend and it was something that I highlighted to the members.

21:56 I was noticing and I put it in the discord. I've been keeping guys up to date all over um the course of the weekend 7% skew or differential on the long side. That was what the case was over the weekend which told me there's a high probability in a low volume environment that the liquidity is greater towards the downside. And what market makers are most likely going to do is drop price.

22:16 And that's of course what we've seen has happened um from that super tight trading range on the weekend. So we on 29% on the fear and greed index. We've seen a massive uptick in liquidations. Almost $1 billion worth of long traders taken out. Look at the long to short liquidations. Right. So um basically 10% of all liquidations was shorts and 90% were long traders max deployed in the market over here.

22:41 And unfortunately the daily exchange volume continues to go down. one of the most telling signals that you can look at and understand that the market just simply cannot run. It cannot run until such time as we see meaningful upticks in volume. And personally, I don't see where that volume is going to come from just yet, which means it might actually take a bit of time.

23:02 So, I updated them over here and I said that, you know, the probabilities definitely shift in favor of the bears over here. The weekly close is going to be vitally important and that's effectively what we've seen. And now we can take that volume and and expand on it to the next level and see the similarities between what happened during FTX um and and now.

23:19 Right. So first and foremost, not only that, but the trench index, they have something called the trench index. You know the guys in the trenches, this thing has been obliterating. If you want a hyper sensitive indicator in terms of what the pain looks like on chain, which is where a lot of people are trading nowadays, you can always look for local tops around when the tren trench index is in euphoria, which it was there not so long ago.

23:44 And this thing is hyper sensitive, much more sensitive than uh what you're going to see on the normal fear and greed index, right? So, if you want a sensitive indicator, go check out um the the trench index for trench traders. We call them trench traders. They're guys that are trading on chain. All right. Now, here's the conundrum. The conundrum is that if you don't see a very strong reaction out of the zone very very very soon, right?

24:08 As soon as this week, it starts to increase the probability that this monthly candle will close like this. And if this monthly candle closes like this, it's could it could be right. I'm not saying there's no guarantees. It could become very catastrophic. And you'll see I'm going to line it up with the CBD data showcasing what happened last time. And we have a similar profile unfolding right now.

24:28 Now, you know, I'm not here to pick sides. I just want to be on I want to be sided with the winner, right? And right now, the winner looks like it's the bears in the short term. It could change, of course, if they put in a strong reaction. If I see something like that, you know, a little bit of bobbing and weaving and a reclaim over here, then sure, the the we start to see the BTC bulls becoming the winner and we start to target much higher prices.

24:52 But as of right now, we've seen a clean rejection from the 0.382, which in trending moves is what you'd expect if the bears are in control. Reject from the 0.32 tick. We've got it right now. You've taken out the little red lines that we highlighted last week, um, which is the previous week's of course, uh, excuse me, the previous month's low and then the month before that low, meaning September, October lows are taken out.

25:17 closing below those. If this doesn't turn green or close neutral and have a strong reaction towards the upside, it starts to look very heavy, right? And very heavy means it can unwind very very very quickly. All right? And then we go to the CVD volume over here. If you look at the cumulative volume delta um in terms of order size and we specifically study the whales.

25:38 Now, of course, this is represented from Binance. So it could be that they are withdrawing funds uh because they're fearful around with the $6.3 billion hack. Maybe they just want to play it safe. But what we did see the last time during the FTX collapse was the following. Saw a very tight trading range, right? Very tight trading range over there. This is coming off the 2021 highs.

26:00 Price fell down into 2022, bounced slightly, and then leading into 2023, we saw that crater. All right, that CVD volume delta by order size. the whales effectively just left the room, cratered towards the downside, and now we have the exact same thing, right? Structurally, it looks incredibly similar. Timing wise, it's very similar, but it's a little bit later on cycllically, right?

26:24 Meaning, this is taking a couple more months, but it's not out of the realm of possibility that something like that could still happen. And I just think it's a warning sign and a cautionary sign that we want to be watching this chart, and it would make sense, right? So, this is starting to fall off a cliff. If we look over here again and we and we zoom in a little bit, you can see it's starting to break down, right?

26:45 Only sitting at 232.3 million. If this starts to accelerate towards the downside along the struggling volume which we can have an early lead on by looking at the direction which is down and then we can line that up as well by looking at the volumes on the uh normal price chart. It's all telling exactly the same story, which is that usually the market cycle ends with a rise in selling pressure and volume.

27:10 And if you look at the volume profile over here, it's just been dropping off. All right, so now we have the 7-day daily exchange volume telling us a bearish sign. The cumulative volume delta potentially flashing a huge warning signal. And thirdly, the normal volume chart looking at something like Coinbase, uh, which is where a lot of people trade spot, also declining, right?

27:30 and then in the shorter term actually rising in terms of sell pressure. So this is something that we need to be aware of. Um it's just a cautionary sign. It's something you need to be cognizant and aware of. And it's a catch 22 because the plan all along was the following. The plan all along was that if this July low is to hold, well then this is exactly where you expect the macro high low to form.

27:51 So from a technical analysis perspective, if all we looked at was the candles and nothing else, no volume, no underlining layers, as I described to the whale remembers this morning, you got to peel back the layers of the onion. And when you peel back the layers of the onion, it doesn't support the higher low theory over here. But from a technical analysis perspective, candlestick uh u um basically analysis which is price action trading which is the most important thing this can turn and those underlining factors can

28:24 shift bullish right so just be aware of that it's not a death sentence. It's just that you want them to be confluent. The same way that you trade, you want to buy um in a weekly uptrend with a daily uptrend, confluent with the weekly uptrend, and then you time your entry, for example, on the 4hourly time frame. It's very much the same thing. You want the price action analysis to be structurally bullish, but you also want the underlining pieces of the onion as you peel back the layers to also be bullish, right?

28:51 And they're not. They're not, right? They're not bullish. They're bearish. And the price action suggests that this could be bullish. So therefore, your best trade is probably the confirmation trade waiting to buy higher, but you have the confirmation that the underlining factors are starting to move into agreement. Right? So right now we're in the 0.382 and 50% level zone.

29:13 You have the macro 50% level measured by the orange line as well just below there. And it's all a very very critical spot. Now, if you drop like this and you have a sharp rally towards the upside, that might create enough of um a scenario to go long, very very very similar. So, in other words, you see a bullish wick, right? Very, very, very similar to what occurred over here.

29:32 Even if the candle closes red, it doesn't matter. For example, if we see something like that, it broke the stop and reversal indicator. You can see it popped towards the upside. You started a bullish trend, you came down hard, the difference is that the angle of the 21 EMA was quite sharply towards the upside. And we had already seen the capitulation in the form of a massive volume spike.

29:52 This is the real difference. Focusing on the underlining factors which I just told you the 7-day daily exchange volume, the normal price volume chart over here and the cumulative volume deltas are yet to print what they previously printed in the FTX lows. So therefore, it's not exactly the same thing because you're already below the 21 EMA. And I told you this.

30:13 I told you the problem is that this weekly candle, this last week that we just closed is super important. Don't fade it because we're going to get much more of a lead in terms of what happens next. And the bears won the battle and they turned the 21 EMA down which means at minimum you need to reclaim that and therefore you should be playing quite defensively.

30:30 All right, so it's quite a long story over here but I hope that makes sense to you. I really need you guys super adequ adequately prepped, right? because um we don't want you to be on the wrong side of this. This is the worst case scenario, right? I don't want to say this is a base case. This it's nothing like that. This is a worst case scenario, but it's a reality.

30:48 This could happen. This could happen, right? Um so therefore, we're looking at price coming into this zone. Where do things psychologically fall apart? All right. Well, consolidating multiple candles below the 200 MA, 200 EMA begins to shift the sentiment within the market very very very quickly. Right? And if you break this trend line over here, of course, that's not going to be looking good either.

31:12 So therefore, if you're waiting for the confirmation, you know, one level at a time, I think we'll get a lower lead for now. It's still the same level. 81,195 is the truly safe entry. But chances are if we start to bounce out of here, like my little orange line is, you might bounce. You'll put in another lower high. Price will come down and then you can say taking out this high.

31:32 So I'm just going to drop this for example. Let's just say hypothetically it happens over there. Now, instead of getting long at 81,200, you can get long with a confirmation above hypothetical, right? Hypothetical, you can get long at about 76,800. And if you really want to go on a lower time frame, I do have a long entry trigger for you, but it comes with much more risk, right?

31:53 Dailies are going to be less noisy compared to an hourly, but I have an hourly trigger plan for you. And for those of you in the uh the Coinbase trading Telegram that we opened up on Friday, um you'll know the plan, right? Because I already dropped it in there. All right. So, um, that's that's basically the main thing for Bitcoin. At the end of the day, I'm still scaling in a smaller trade relative to my total account size within this vicinity in case you do put in a bounce, right?

32:19 And that was part of the grid strategy. So, again, I want to highlight and I should probably just like, you know, write this out over here, but uh, I'll just do it super quick and then and then I'll write it out for tomorrow so we can always reference back to it and just screenshot it or pause the screen. one, you know, you limit ordering in at what you think is the perfect entry zone.

32:38 Maybe that's a golden pocket, for example. Two, you are grid ordering in, scaling orders all the way down. That captures the majority of the downside move. Three, you're dollar cost averaging over time for let's say uh give or take 90 days from when we said that. That will take you into early next year and by then you expect the worst will be over. Doesn't in terms of time, right?

33:02 In terms of time, the worst will be over by then. In terms of price, it could drop a whole lot. You have to be prepared for that. But dollar cost averaging smooths out your entry. And then four, finally, limit order breakout trade, which is what I just said over here. The limit order breakout trade for now is get back above 81,200. That gives you confirmation.

33:20 So, one is a limit order catching a falling night. Two is a grid trade. Three is a dollar cost average over 90 days. Four is also a limit order entry on a breakout. Those are your four entry methods, right? That's what you can utilize to get your entry. So, we'll talk about what that looks like in a moment. Right. So, if we have a look over here, the liquidity is actually building up stronger below the weekly books have mostly been wiped.

33:41 I guess a lot of confusion within the market and I think we got to watch those CVDs and the volume chart, right? So, first and foremost, I do what I always do. I just come in and I'm implementing part of that dollar cost average strategy, which you guys know I just buy like a hundred bucks of Bitcoin. Pretty easy, pretty simple every day. Now the level to reclaim right you can see this is the tight trading range and I also told the guys in that telegram over the course of the weekend um we had taken a long trade we had

34:10 taken a long trade near this range low over here price was bouncing and I told them I don't like the way that this is forming um because of what I'm seeing in the altcoin sector I'm closing the trade right so I exited that trade for slight profit now the level to reclaim is pretty much here right so the earliest lead right the earliest lead for a breakout trade would be if you can start to get candles back above 60 uh excuse me $76,200 if you really want to go tight.

34:36 I guess we can go a little bit lower, but I'd prefer to leave a a little bit of space if you can get back above there. Right. So maybe we see something like this. There we go. Now you can start to buy pullbacks. I don't think that's happening right now. It looks like this wants to fall through. All right. So that would be if that happened, I might be willing to take that trade.

34:53 And this is for the Coinbase trading competition. Um, again, for those of you if you missed out and you want to get into the Telegram group, here it is, right? It's linked over here. Go to the join the Telegram group. There it is. I've been dropping the trades for the this this group will last for 3 weeks. So, if you want to be in there, this is specifically to the trading competition.

35:14 It's only for verified Coinbase users. You need to fill in a form which is pinned to the top of that group with your user ID or your email address so we can verify you're in the competition. If you're not in, you can't be in there. will kick you out right at the end of the day. Um, so sign up over here to Coinbase. Second, enter the trading competition.

35:32 Remember, by signing up, you'll be affiliated with me, which gives you $275 deposit bonus in USDC, which looks like that. Claim your reward. And more importantly, you get 80% off on your trading fees for spot trading. All right, amazing. Okay, so we got that out the way. Now, there's a lot more to look at. We got to look at we got to look at altcoins as well because altcoins also have a similar catch22 situation specifically Ethereum.

35:55 What is the catch 22? Pretty much across the board anything that is structurally bullish has higher low territory potentially forming for the daily. But when you look at it on a higher time frame, it starts to show a bit of a different picture. That's where they're in disagreement. Here's the example. If we look at a highlighted this as well to the whale room community, which is probably why you want to be in there, right?

36:18 I highlighted this before. Look at that. Look at that wick. Look at that wick on Ethereum. And I said, you know, the catch 22 is that you have this trade setup where we're coming into this zone. And I said, I wouldn't long this unless I started to see certain things line up. And now we're in that zone, right? So you've rejected over there. It looks bad.

36:33 If you take out this level, you cooked. This is um 1,895. And this is what it looks like on the daily. So you can't long this unless you see a reaction, right? You must see the reaction. It's a pretty critical place for Ethereum. Again, I just want you to understand, let's maybe move this chart up to the right because I'm not in this trade. This is just a planned trade in the event that we see strength come into the market.

36:56 And similar to Bitcoin, you can have a limit order breakout trade if you start to reclaim certain levels, right? We're not there yet. This was this was a plan that we had from way back over here. And you'll be longing it off the lows into this bearish order block that price drop down. That could give you about a 50% move if bulls are going to take control.

37:14 Now, we wanted to see a bit of a bullish divergence form here, and it's not happening. As you can see over here, we wanted to see a bullish divergence form. There's no bullish wave that's forming over here. In fact, it's just dropping down further, which means I have to side with the higher time frame, which means treat that 3-day candle rejective as pretty serious.

37:34 You can see over here, it looks like a bearish penant, right? A bearish penant. Big strong down move consolidates into uh the apex of the the triangle over there. gets tighter and tighter in terms of volatility breaks down bearish retest and ultimately level to level right it'll take time to round out over here if it is going to round out so I don't think again there's any rush and if it doesn't you're going to take out this low if you take out this low I still think this is ripe for the taking the move down into like

38:01 1385 all right 1385 okay and I mean this is the reality look on Binance there is [laughter] there's no volume I don't know if this is correct we should Just look at another chart as well. Let's see what the volume looks like over here. Okay, this is the volume. Um, here's the volume and we can look back in the price cycle as well just out of interest.

38:21 Have a look at this. Isn't this interesting? Surely you can you can say that all of this is interesting. Like the culmination of the bare market end was met with a massive rise in sell pressure and we we haven't really seen too much of that, right? We haven't even hit those levels. Only on this candle. We hit one single day that hit that level, but not multiple days.

38:41 So, if you do take out that uh that low that I just highlighted, let's go back on this chart to to give you that level. Basically, if you do take out this low, this low over here, it's coming in at $1890, $1,890. If you take out that low, expect a rise in volume as price falls and sells off much further. And that probably brings in the cyclical low.

39:03 Okay. Um All right. You guys say when you peel the onion, you cry. Yes. especially when it's a crypto onion. I understand that. Okay. Another thing we spoke of when it comes to understanding whether the market is more likely going to go risk on versus risk off. It's something pretty simple. ETH BTC. I mean, does that look bullish or bearish, right? We we had spoken about it at the time when price was coming into here and I said that if it's going to be bullish if it's going to be a risk on scenario and it's going to be

39:37 bullish and I said I have my reservations and doubt it but if it's going to be bullish you should bounce off here and as soon as you get above the yellow box boom this is the zone right bullish risk on everything's piling on all the risk that they can find all the money they can find. Alternatively what may happen and when you look at last week's candle or what day is this?

39:55 Yeah it's a weekly chart. When you look at the last week's candle, that's pretty bad, right? That's telling us that you may go full risk off this week. This might start to accelerate towards the downside. Now, there will be supports around the mid-range. I'm treating this as range low, range high, and therefore pretty much approximately over here as mid-range.

40:12 And we can we can measure it out and get precise with this. Let's do it. All right. So, if we're treating that as high and low, there you go. We treating this as mid-range which you know you can see how it will fall apart if you take out the mid-range you're taking out the previous higher low the first high low higher low in ETHBTC what this means in simple terms is if you are breaking down here altcoins are selling off rapidly compared to Bitcoin all right it could also mean that Bitcoin is going to the absolute moon

40:44 um you know maybe it becomes a global reserve currency overnight and altcoins just say sideways, right? Then you'd also see this drop, but it's unlikely. Usually, what will happen is it it falls due to an aggressive sell off. All right? So, you know, um there's a lot of stuff that's going on over here. You can prepare if you do want to take this trade.

41:06 So, remember we gave the different trades. I'm going to highlight it in yellow for you. If you want to opt for number two, right? If you want to opt for number two, which is gridding your orders in, that's already pre-planned for you, right? That's pre-planned for you. If you go over here, two bits, you can just copy that. Copy the long trade. It's set up very low risk over here.

41:28 Um, it's going to scale you into the trade and equal out your limit orders. Uh, you if you want to do it over here, you can get a signup bonus as well with Tubbit. They're giving 10% rebate on top of whatever you deposit, which you can use in that trade, right? So, for example, if you put in $20,000, they're going to give you 2K. If you put in $300,000, they'll give you $30,000 to trade with.

41:48 All right. And you can just copy that. It'll give you the same settings. You must use this link, though, otherwise it's not going to work. All right. What else? What else, guys? Okay. Um, oh, yeah. If you do sign up to Twit, by the way, come through and spin the wheel. So, if you connect your Twit account over here, we've won $10 twice. So, I've won $20 [laughter] in the times that I've spun this wheel.

42:12 And I and I see the prizes are getting bigger and bigger. So, let's try again. Okay. Let's try again. Everybody hold thumbs for me. Let's see if I win something. Not today. Okay. Not today. Not today. We'll try again tomorrow. All right. We'll try again tomorrow. Let's have a look at certain altcoins. Now typically if this is going to kick off into a bull run we are a lot of people are not just me but we are hopeful right we are hopeful that price is here this is what everyone's hoping everyone is hoping that price and

42:46 let's we'll highlight it right we're all hoping that this is the environment that we're in that we're in the start of the moon phase right we're going to we're going to pump to the moon um if that is the case okay Then ultimately we need to see some new strength come back into the market. And you want to typically long the things that have had the most relative strength.

43:10 What's had the most relative strength? One of the strongest things of the entire lot has been what? Hyperlid, right? So let's quickly go to hyperlquid and we'll drop back. I think it's this chart. We'll go back onto the daily because this has now broken down. We said it might break down and if it does break down, watch for this area. We're coming into support over here.

43:28 daily fair value gap, rising trend line, and it's super similar to Bitcoin in that regard. It's just got a much stronger prior trend that's formed relative to what Bitcoin's done. So, this becomes the next level. Remember, everybody got bull trapped here by Stanley Draen Miller, legendary investor who tweeted for the first time in four years since opening his Twitter account or X account that he's basically bullish, hyperlquid.

43:53 And that was, man, that was a sell the news event if anything, right? You know, that was a seldom news event. People aped into that. They got they're getting absolutely rinsed. I want to see a rounding out over here. That could be as low as about 64, 65, as high as about I mean, I think you're going to drop you. You should sweep 6850. Okay, you should sweep 6850.

44:20 All right. So again, guys, for those of you that want more information, take advantage. Trade with the whales. 503 spots available. That's all that that will be available as soon as we hit that number. Whale room is capped, right? No more people. No more people. We want this a tight-knit community. It works out very very very cheap. 1,199. Of course, if you only have $100 to your name, this is 10 times too expensive for you.

44:45 But if you if you have if you have a job or you have money, then this is the place for you. All right, I'll [snorts] see you guys on the next one. And I hope all of you have an absolutely beautiful day and we'll catch you tomorrow. Cheers for now.