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CRITICAL: This Is Where Most Investors Mess Up Bad! [Wait For This Signal] Transcript, AI Summary & Key Points

Crypto Banter · 10 days ago · News & Politics · 35:32 · EN-US

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Answer

Most investors mess up by guessing and front-running unconfirmed moves. The answer: wait for the signal — a reclaim and close above Friday's candle high for stocks (Dow above 53,000, QQQ above 727) and above Thursday's high for Bitcoin — before calling bulls back in control. Until then bears hold the edge.

AI Summary

Bitcoin, crypto and TradFi markets just printed a brutal weekly and monthly close, and the big question is whether the worst is over or another leg down is coming. The single most important signal to wait for is a reclaim of the breakdown candle: for stocks, a close above Friday's high (Dow above 53,000, QQQ above 727), and for Bitcoin, a reclaim of Thursday's high (2,388 on ETHBTC as the altcoin tell). Seasonality argues for a bounce: November to April averages +6.9% versus +2.1% for May to October, October and November have never both closed lower in a midterm year, and Bitcoin historically bottoms shortly after midterms. The biggest headwind is geopolitical: a widely shared thread warns Trump may be days away from a strike on Iran after the midterms, which would invalidate the seasonal bounce. Until the reclaim prints, bears hold the edge — no hero trades, dollar cost average instead, and treat metals (gold lost $4,090, silver near 48) and AI stocks like Intel as high-risk.

Key Points

  • Midterm elections this week and fears of a US strike on Iran are the biggest market headwinds; a widely shared thread warns Trump may be days away from a nuclear strike on Iran at Pickax Mountain under pressure from Netanyahu, with a decision possibly by November 7
  • Seasonality favours a bounce: May–October averages +2.1%, November–April averages +6.9%; October and November have never both been lower in a midterm year, and in the five prior Octobers that were low, November bounced green each time (December lower only once, a 9.2% drop under Trump)
  • From 1950–2025 November is the best month on average, and the second best over the last 20 years and the last 10 years in midterm years
  • Dow Jones rejected the 50% level where Friday closed; the risk-on signal is a move above 53,000
  • QQQ has come exactly into the 200 EMA with a bounce underway; the level to overcome is 727
  • MAGS got stopped out; re-establishing on strength above 72 would confirm a higher low, with a target near 86–87
  • Intel dropped 30% in one day on Friday; above 97 bounces must be treated as lower highs, with a likely bleed into the 44–50 zone
  • Other AI/tech levels: Micron bounce zones at 771 then ~620; Nvidia line in the sand at 200 (under 200 is massive risk); Meta in the golden pocket; Apple strongest of the lot with stops just under 315; Amazon may sweep lows at ~225; Google threatening a double bottom that rarely holds; Microsoft and Tesla the stronger names

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Searchable transcript of CRITICAL: This Is Where Most Investors Mess Up Bad! [Wait For This Signal] — Crypto Banter (35:32). Search for a phrase, then click its timestamp to jump straight to that moment in the video.

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00:01 It was a brutal weekly close last week. Also a brutal monthly close for a lot of the trady stocks that are out there. Now the question is, is it going to be going lower, right? And if so, how much lower or is the worst over? That's the gazillion dollar question. It's a big stacked economic week. Of course, we have the midterms which is coming up tomorrow.

00:19 And there's a lot of posturing, a lot of threats that are coming out over there. So, specifically geopolitically, which is um creating even more of a riskoff environment. So today's video will talk about whether we'll see a bit of a bounce, what to expect over the coming months, specifically when it comes to the stock market and looking back historically at what's happened.

00:37 Um, and then what's the best trade to take off of all of this, right? So smash the like button, vote in the poll as well before we get too deep into the details over here. Is the worst over or do we have another leg down in the global financial markets? That being Bitcoin, uh, crypto, metals, which have been absolutely nuking. We'll talk about metals as are specifically silver which has come into the area of interest that we had previously highlighted and then of course the US indices which are also starting to show a

01:01 lot of weakness because of AI breaking down in a big way over the course of Friday right we saw the likes of Intel dropping 30% in one single day 24 hours right and pre-markets are bouncing slightly but is it going to hold up for the rest of the day so vote over there 20% if you believe the bottom is in 37% say we might just simply sweep the lows is 37 or now 38% of you say we're going to have another proper leg down and 6% of you believe capitulation like co right that's the type of dip you're looking for so let's get

01:33 into it this is the economic calendar ISM manufacturing PMI is also coming out later on today and then we got the uh elections and then ISM services PMI is going to be the following day then unemployment claims um and then the unemployment rate which is going to be on Friday basically it's a stacked week of course the biggest thing happening this week is going to be the US elections because a lot of people are really worried the very second that the US elections finish is where um the US is or at least Trump's

02:00 basically going to come out and literally nuke Iran. Right? This is at least Tucker Coulson's thoughts which if you have a look over here, he posted this very long tweet thread which um I read this morning, it was pretty intense, I must say, especially being someone in the UAE obviously is quite worrying with Iran being neighbors. But um he has been saying all of this for a long period of time.

02:21 Month after month after month, he keeps saying it's a number of days away. But in a nutshell, these are the important points. He says Trump may be days away from launching a nuclear strike on Iran under direct pressure from Netanyahu. Right. Tucker Coulson says and the target area would be Pickax Mountain in central Iran where Israel basically claiming that they have restarted their nuclear program something like 300 m underground in this uh in this military base and the only way through is with a nuke.

02:49 Right? That's what they're saying. So close observers say that Trump would likely decide by next weekend. I think it was November the 7th which is Saturday. So this is causing a lot of worry within the market. But I'm going to show you some of the data as well. Um all war things aside and you can make a decision uh you know is it worth bidding is it worth bidding the market over here because uh the results are usually good going into a seasonally strong period.

03:15 So it's kind of like do you place your bet and say well if a nuke is dropped we have bigger problems and then everyone's portfolios are anyway going to zero so what does the money matter so we may as well put that money in the market while everyone's scared because what's the alternative the alternative is that none of this takes place and Tucker Coulson is completely wrong and then the markets pump off of that right that could be one thought process that you can look at for now the DXY which is one of the risk of

03:39 signals is uh pushing towards the upside over here you can see still looking relatively strong and like it wants to see that continuation over there. So, if we go into the details and we have a look at the um best six months of the year, well, we're coming into that environment right now. We've just come out of the worst six months of the year, which is May to October, right?

03:56 May to October, right? Your average change 2.1% um and ultimately going into now November to April, you can see your average change is typically 6.9% where you would expect a bounce. And if we have a look over here as well for uh the the over that October and November period, what we can see from Ryan um who's posted over here in terms of the historical data, he says over here, October and November have never both been lower in midterm year.

04:24 So this is a midterm year. So if October was lower, we've never seen October and November lower, right? November typically results in a bounce and October was lower. So therefore, according to this data, it'd be expecting to lead into a seasonally strong period and for November to theoretically have a bounce. Now, of course, if any escalation occurs over here, it's probably not going to bounce.

04:46 But what are the chances of that, right? If you're just thinking of the law of averages. So the five times that october was low, November did bounce back in the green each time and December was only lower one time, which means if November is going to bounce and be green, well, the chances are that it will follow through into December. So um the the the only time that it didn't in December there was a massive 9.2% drop when Trump was in office.

05:12 Right? So that's what that data set says. And if you go over time from 1950 to 2025 data, of course, we don't have the complete data set for 2026. So we can only look from 1950 to 2025. November is typically the best month on the year of the year on average and the second best that is going from 1950. But if you only take the dates over the last 20 years, November is the second best, right?

05:36 And if you take it over the last 10 years, it's the uh second best in a midterm year. Basically suggesting November is good. November is a good year or good month in the year, right? Um regardless. So that's something to consider because if we look at the US indices, well, the Dow Jones still looks okay. It rejected off the 50% level, but it now has the potential to put in a higher low over here.

05:58 So, if it puts in a high low, we know that to clear the resistance areas, what we want to do is we want to see the Dow Jones above 53,000, right? We want to see it above 53,000. If we look at the now most recent low into the most recent high and we just quickly mark out where those FIB levels are, you can see well, we've dropped below the 50% level.

06:18 Let's have a look relative to the golden pocket. Close to the golden pocket. The most important thing is what we want to see it do is we want to see it hold above the purple line, which is going to be the 50% level. And that is where Friday managed to close. So you're going to be looking for a bounce out of here. At the end of the day, it's going to be very simple.

06:35 And the same story is going to be true for Bitcoin. And what that story is is basically you want to see a reclaim of the breakdown candle, which if you can clear Friday's candle, and this goes for Bitcoin as well. If you can take out that that breakdown candle, that basically suggests that the bears have um been trapped and the bulls have absorbed the majority of the pressure and have started to reclaim things towards the upside.

06:57 So to if you're only going to take one thing from today's video would be that whatever the candle high is on Friday um going forward you want to reclaim that that becomes your risk on signal. If you can reclaim and close above Friday's high it's a risk on signal right so if we go through um onto some of the other charts like the S&P 500 futures over here um you can see also still falling we do have the 200 EMA support that's coming into play.

07:21 We spoke about the swing failure pattern. This definitely has a lot of work to do. So, we'll adjust that one one step at a time. And then we have QQQ, which has come exactly into the 200 EMA. And the overnight trading is signifying a bit of a bounce. So, again, you're going to want to get above that yellow line that is 727. That's the level to overcome.

07:40 Um, otherwise, there is a chance that we are going to be going lower. There will be bounces along the way, right? So, what are the bounces along the way? First bounce right over here at the 200. Second bounce coming into play is going to be strong horizontal support in the form of the previous tops over there. acceleration up and you'd be coming back to the to possibly retest that.

07:57 Right? So that's one of the areas of interest. Um it is all going to depend I think on what happens geopolitically this week. I think this is probably the biggest headwind that the market is facing um and what is stressing the market out the most. All right. So um let's go on to some of the others. We have mags over here. I did get stopped out of the trade.

08:17 you know, unfortunate because you theoretically are coming into support and a bounce area, but I think it's going to be better to reestablish these positions. If you do come into strength, which for now, I'd say is going to be about 72. If you can get above 72 over there, you've successfully held the breakout area back tested into key support and um ultimately you're looking for that continuation, which means you would have a confirmed higher low.

08:40 There's no point with all the risk factors in play in my opinion to try and be a hero. What is a hero? hero tries to buy the bottom, right? In financial terms. So, no need to be a hero. Instead, it's probably better to wait for some of the headwinds to clear to confirm by closing above that yellow line at about 72 that you are you at that point you've confirmed that you have a higher low over here and you can buy each dip with minimal risk on the table and get back into the same trade with the thesis that you're moving

09:07 up to about 86 87 to complete a um seasonally strong period, right? Which is going to be November and leading into the rest of the year. So, a lot a lot to play for, right? a lot to play for a via but we have seen some serious um dumps right look at that Amazon I've been taken out the position as well so a lot of these trades are cleared right you'll see Apple I still have as an individual trade over here on two bit but a lot of the other ones got um closed out based on these risks reward setups in terms of where our

09:36 stops have moved to break even those trades are out so we spoke about the liquidity right for the taking you might have another leg down over here on Amazon to clear out those lows at about 225 um and we'll go into Apple in a moment you can see Google giga dump towards the downside over here threatening these lows. It's always dangerous when you're looking at these um double bottom scenarios, right?

09:57 Because double bottoms rarely hold. What typically happens is you put in a bit of relief and then later you come through and fall through that level. So be aware of that. Be aware of that. Right? The Apple trade is still in profit. The stops are being moved to break even over here. I believe um let's just quickly move up to the right. I do believe I have a um yes, I have a stop loss over there at break even.

10:17 So, uh, just under 315 from the original entry on Apple. So, a free hits over here. If it takes off, it takes off. That was probably taken off one of these trades over here. Um, so Apple the strongest of the lot. Actually, quite a strong daily reaction. If you have a look at that candle, decent, decent daily reaction over there. So, Apple's kind of holding up the whole market.

10:35 But if Apple falls through over here, that means a massive market cap is starting to shift towards the downside, and it's probably going to take things down with it, which you now can see over here as well. Nvidia swept all of these lows. That was something we said was a possibility, but it has come into strong horizontal support. Where the game really starts to change for Nvidia is if Nvidia does deadcat bounce over here, falls through here and starts to flip the yellow box into resistance and that's around call it

11:00 200, right? Use 200 as the line in the sand, which is more or less where we at. Under 200 is a massive risk for Nvidia. Um, this could fall through much much further. above 200 keeps the opium alive with the possibility of uh that relief and bouncing. Meta still sitting in that golden pocket. So again, I think this has to show a bit of strength coming back into the market otherwise this is just a massive fake out of a large triangle.

11:26 Microsoft ironically one of the stronger of the lot holding up over here near the highs and Tesla as well managing to break out of that down sloping trend line. Also also the symmetrical triangle. We had the fake out on the downside and now breaking out or can it continue to hold? That's the question, right? So, um the real things that have been absolutely decimated over here beyond the metals, which we'll get into in a moment, has been things like Intel.

11:51 This is an unbelievable chart, right? Look at Intel over here. Um Intel basically if it can't start to recapture the breakdown areas, which is going to be much higher up. Uh this I would say is and we'll maybe change the colors over here to not create any confusion. So, you need to get above the orange line, right? 97. Anything that bounces up into or near that area is a lower high.

12:12 You have to treat it as such because you've now taken out a lot of the structure over here. So any bounce over here, you have to treat as a lower high and there's a possibility that Intel is going to bleed through into the 44 to 50 zone over here, which is your pink box as a strong horizontal. Right? That's the most likely outcome for for Intel. Um, a lot of the other AI sectors have also been pretty hard hit, but not as bad as that.

12:35 Um you can see micron over here. Question is is this a complacency bounce and are we going low? There are bounce zones along the way 771 and then after that you're looking at 620 zone around that 620. All right. Um so those are some of the positions. Palenteer. Let's have a look at that. So Palanteer I've stopped out of the trade. All right. So we also had the Palanteer trade over here on two bit.

12:57 I've been taking out that trade and the reason why is what we covered on Friday is we said that if Palanteer is going to take out this low, we really don't want to see that. We don't want to take out this low. So, we floated the stop loss over there at 182. We got taken out. As you can see, we're still in profit over there. Overnight trading is bouncing, but same story, right?

13:15 You got to get above these candles, the breakdown candles over there to suggest that um you know, bulls are back in the driver's seat and and attempting to retake control. Otherwise, you got to treat it as a pretty risky environment. All right, so we have a lot to look at, guys. We can always come back to the Tradfy stuff. I do want to get into crypto as well in a moment.

13:34 I first want to just go through medals and then we'll go straight away into Bitcoin and what's happening in Bitcoin land. But gold breaking down, right? You've officially lost this level, closing below. It's a new swing low. You've lost a strong horizontal support. You, if you're a range trader, you treat this as now establishing a short trade down to the next bottom of the trading range.

13:52 So, your trading range is effectively going to be around this 33. And this is going to be uh the range high, right? So, of that trading range. So if it bounces between these two zones, that is the range high. This is also where the breakout happened. I think gold is um you know unless you can start to trade and we can lower the level now the level of validation or invalidation.

14:12 We can now say if gold can get above $4,090 the yellow line if you can successfully close above there you have avoided disaster. If you can't successfully get above there, treat any bounce over here as resistance and a relief rally, a dead cut bounce, you could basically even short it with a stop loss over there. And that short can be traded down with multiple take profits along the way.

14:39 First one at mid-range, second one all the way down at the bottom in the 33 region. And we spoke about that for a very long time as a possibility if this was going to be a lower high. Okay. Okay. So that's what's happening over there. And then silver getting absolutely crushed. So there silver, we we tried to give the bulls, the silver bulls the benefit of the doubt with this trend line over here and say that you know maybe they can hold it.

14:59 But you've officially come deep into that zone. Um you know around this 48 region over here is where you want to look for a little bit of a bounce. But very similar to to gold, it's getting absolutely crushed over there. Um and you know how low could it go? This thing can go as low as 36. I would say about as low as 36 if it just keeps dropping. That's where you're going to find the the strongest area of support which lines up with a massive uh trend line over there and you could get a bit of a bounce.

15:26 All right, platinum's almost tagging. Our target level over here is going to be 1347 and then we expect a bit of a bounce. Um yeah, gold is breaking down because some scientists have successfully turned mercury into gold. Um yeah, I mean that's what they say. But how much energy is this is the real question, right? how much energy is required to if if they can even do that like is it easier to just mine the gold right probably.

15:51 Um, so we'll see. We'll see. This is something that people have been trying to do for thousands of years, right? Um, is try and replace God's money, which let's just see. We'll see what happens. But at the end of the day, it doesn't matter. We're trying to make money, right? So ultimately, we're just going to look level to level and maybe they maybe they basically crack the code for for how to make gold, but we'll find out when they get to 33 that they it was all a lie and that's where gold will go back up and bounce

16:18 off of 33, right? Okay. Uh, let's move on. Quickly looking at the rest of the metals. Copper. Let's not miss out on copper. Still holding up, but starting to get dangerous with those lower highs over there. If you start to break down and consolidate, I would really say the 200 EMA, which is rising. It's coming in close where those previous lows were formed.

16:38 That's going to be about 620. Break below 620 and then you probably going through full distribution over there. Aluminium getting a bit of a bounce, still mostly weak. Um, relief rallies are obviously going to be a thing. dead cat bounces along the way. I wouldn't jump into that just yet. And palladium is getting really close to sweeping this low. Will it bounce first?

16:59 That's the question. I think like probably it's going to get some kind of a bounce, but then ultimately I think you're going to result like this sweeping about um 883. Okay, amazing. Um all right, here we have another reason that look, I don't look at the I don't look at the fundamentals, but but Brian's come up with um another angle over here. Gold's dropping because China is attacking paper gold markets and they're buying every piece of gold they can.

17:25 You know, these these gold markets have a lot of stories as well. I found like we thought that we have narratives in crypto, but these guys have a lot of narratives in the metals markets as well. All right. So, anyways, with all of that being said, basically what I'm going to be doing over here is I'm going to be keeping a close eye for the Tradfi trades specifically on two things, right?

17:44 QQQ because it's one of the US indices. It's the easiest to play. And then the MAGS trade as I'm going to be watching that pretty closely in terms of establishing new grid positions given the others have been stopped out. And then maybe gold, but it needs to come a little bit lower. We're still looking for around 33 to be tagged and that could be a potential trade to open over there.

18:05 Uh what other ones over here? I'm I'm nervous to play these uh Intels although I can recognize that there could be bounces along the way. This thing is cliff diving, right? So, this can go horribly wrong. So, if you are trying to like t-wap the bottom over here, just be prepared that you you might get a temporary bounce and then ultimately come as low as 45.

18:22 All right, let's move on into Bitcoin and see what's going on over here. The skew is relatively balanced as it often is on a Monday because the um you know, markets volumes are pretty low over the course of a weekend. Um as expected, we're still in the fearful zone on the fear and greed index. Liquidations have dropped off significantly also over the weekend.

18:44 Slightly more shorts taken out over there, but only 136 million. And then, you know, this is the most worrisome chart over here because this spike up in volume is mostly because of the Binance um hack, right? $6.3 billion in case you're living under a rock. Biggest hack or um theft that's ever occurred in history. And what this means is that you can't really treat this as a shift in my opinion in the volume because the the daily exchange volume is determined by how much money is moving on exchanges.

19:14 And obviously if the largest exchange got hacked as soon as they open up withdrawals, you had over $3 billion um withdrawn as well from Binance, which is what's going to be representing this bounce. So therefore, this is kind of like a false signal and there hasn't actually been any shift whatsoever on the daily exchange volume and we need to see how this settles over the coming week in the face of all of this.

19:35 Right? So there's a lot going on, a lot going on over here. Um this is your safest signal for confirmation that the trends have truly shifted and everything is in up only mode and that's going to be if the daily exchange volume goes up. Right? So if we look at Bitcoin and we look at the historical data in a similar way to what we did over here um but Bitcoin specifically November is typically the best time right as well.

20:00 If you look over here um and we go through into November we can see that uh November has an average return of almost 35% 34.9%. Okay. The median return is 10.26%. And if you just bet long only 63% of the time you'd be correct. All right. So, right now October closed down 7.32% and it's not the worst October, but in 2011 we had obviously much more volatility in the market.

20:30 So, that one that one was way worse. 2012 also very small market cap. 11% over there. 2014 also very small market cap. So, in more recent times since Bitcoin has garnered a larger and larger market cap, I would say 7.32% is a pretty bad October. Okay, given um comparing to the market cap, the the real question is what happens next, right? What happens next over here?

20:55 Well, if you're going to play alongside what the uh trady markets are going to do and this November period is expected to be seasonally strong and you can start to see Friday's highs, remember that's your validation invalidation zone recovered, then that becomes a signal that well maybe things will play out the way that they previously did and you can see that bounce.

21:14 Now, I thought this was interesting because if you look at the midterms, which is what we're coming up into now, well, Bitcoin historically has always bottomed after the midterms, okay, after the midterms. And then the hing narrative starts to kick in as something of interest to Bitcoiners and crypto people and that generates uh further upside pressure typically, right?

21:33 Because um you know, that's previous results which don't always indicate uh future results. But uh people study those previous results and it becomes somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy to an extent. So what that means is if you are going to put in you know a sweep of the lows or higher low then you want to focus on these dates right? So if you look over here Bitcoin's last three cycle bottoms came shortly after in 2014 it was 71 days.

22:01 Okay two months call it two months. In 2018 it was just over a month later. In 2022, it was only two weeks later, 13 days later, and you put in your major bottom. We in this is similar to 2022 in the uh uh to the extent that we had this massive exchange scare, right? FCX went down obviously at that point in time. And that's why we went down one more time and we swept those lows.

22:23 So, it's going to be an interesting environment. Keeping it simple, what's the easiest thing in the world that you can do? Well, the easiest thing in the world that you can do is just dollar cost average over this time period. Okay, I'm not really necessarily an advocate for dollar cost averaging all the time like a lot of people out there say, but you can always come through over here to our data hub and then you can go to the BTC dollar cost average calculator and you can mess around with this and you can see what

22:51 your results would look like, right, over time. If you um if you want to go and check what that would look like, I would say that typically, you know, that there's about a six-month period where it makes a lot of sense to dollar cost average. This would be one of those environments. All right, so let's go on to the actual technical analysis and the charts over here.

23:07 In terms of liquidity, we got 13 million on the 24-hour period uh below price, which means that's more of a draw. Let's go on the weekly and see how that one looks. Okay, so weekly is also more liquidity on the downside. So this means that a lot of the DJ8s have had the time in the form of these double bottoms to allocate and they have their stop losses over there.

23:30 So that could become ripe for the taking. It's not that high. We want over 100 million on the weekly and we want over 20 million on the daily to be of significance. Now we've come perfectly into the 200 EMA. Can it hold it? This is why it's going to get super interesting because we're looking at the posturing, right? The posturing of or the angle. The angle is up.

23:47 That's a good thing. But if price does start to mark down in a heavy way and hold and close weeklys below here, this if we closed this week down in in the 72K region, it kind of throws a spanner in the works because that will round this over. And uh one of our things that we look at is if price is angled below or is holding below and specifically the angle is facing down, it's a risky environment, right?

24:14 Very risky. Typically, you don't want to be holding in that environment. Now, it would be tricky because seasonally we know that this is the zone where we expect the shift as per what I just showed you over here, right? Seasonally, I just said there's a you have about a six-month window where it makes a lot of sense to be buying and to dollar cost average and that would be part of that.

24:31 So, that we'll cross that road if and when we get there, right? And I and I put emphasis on the if because we might not even get there. You might just see that prices hold up over here and midterms are okay and everything starts to basically work its way rounding out over here and we've tagged the level, right? That was one of the areas of interest.

24:49 We spoke about layering the grid trades all the way down for Bitcoin, right? All the way down theoretically even to the bottom of this candle because if you take out that candle, we cooked. So, um we'll go into the next shot that that highlights where those zones are. Point is the 200 EM or the 21 EMA is rising each and every week. Although marginally it is rising.

25:09 You can see we wick through it. We held we closed above it. I would love to see a stronger move down and then a sharp move up. That would give me full confirmation that enough damage was done and this becomes an incredibly strong buy. So the horizontal line represents the candle closing back with the body of the candle above the 200 the 21 EMA. Right.

25:27 So that's that's one thing that I would love to see but not necessarily going to get it. the um momentum has slowed down over the course of the weekend. It might have another leg up. Sometimes we see it reset and then one more leg where it shoots towards the upside. So if we do get that leg of volatility expansion one more time and prices come down into that 72k region, that is still high probability by the dip bound zone, right?

25:49 Don't get me wrong. And then once you reach into uh we'll we'll move the pink box up now, right? Once you reach into this environment, so anything above like 75 into the 100 percentile mark, then the worst is basically over. At that point, you can say the worst is over. So, is the worst over right now? Well, we're only midway through the expansion, so we can't really say, right?

26:08 It's a little bit more difficult to say. I would definitely still side with the bears and say that the bears right now hold the edge. Of course, if you are a to the tick bottom buyer, which you've probably been wrecked more times than you can count, then you might disagree with me, right? But if you are a more rational trader, you would agree that the bears maintain control as long as you know, for so for Bitcoin, it's a little bit different to Tradfy.

26:33 Trad, we said get above Friday's high. For Bitcoin, it's get above Thursday's high. Thursday, Bitcoin led that move down before Intel and all of that dumped um 30% in one single day. Right? So for Bitcoin, that's the level you want to get back above there. Uh this is this really starts to reclaim things for the um for the bulls. Okay? So this pink box area over here is where your grid zones are spaced out.

26:59 If you are going to be gridding into that order, setting limit orders all the way through down to the bottom. You know, this is all fair game. You could sweep down one more time, but theoretically, this is going to be a buy zone for your first uh major high low within the market, which looks like this, right? First high low, you have your expanding wedge over here, almost tagged the top, and now you look for the move down into the bottom, placed between the 200 EMA and 200 MA.

27:22 And then we've come into the fear zone, which is good sign. And then I'm tracking over here as well. Um, a little bit of a quicker trend towards the downside on the RSI. So, this could be one good indication as well. If the RSI does start to break back up and Bitcoin reclaims Thursday's high, that will be a confirmation that this is a bare trap, right?

27:44 And you'll you'll see this thing repositioning strong once again. For now, bears are in control, right? The lower highs are getting sharp and sharper, which means you're also looking for climax, right? you're looking for um you can you can look at the speed at which the RSI is dropping relative to the Ballinger bands expanding represented by the Ballinger band with percentile and what that means is if the RSI's speed up towards the downside with another aggressive leg down taking price with it and this comes into the

28:14 pink box zone it's just double confluence that okay now now you're probably putting in your last leg down your bottom right so maybe the RSI does something like this and then has one more sharp move down. Okay, so that that's that's effectively two things that I'm looking at um in terms of the RSI and the Ballinger bandwidth percentile to determine how much juice do the bears still have less left in them to dump price, right?

28:37 And then you can see price has come up over here tagged into the um we got the nine and the 18 exponential. So the yellow is the nine. You've tagged into the nine, you're rejecting off that um and again that's the importance of recovering that high. you'll get back above those EMAs for now. Also, your RSI pivot level. So, your RSI remains down as long as you're below that orange line 785.

28:59 This is a moving target. It moves every day. All right. Um, so that is Bitcoin for you. So, what do we do? What do we do in this environment? As I just mentioned, one good thing to do is to stay sharp, stay focused, stay alive, and you can dollar cost average. Okay? So to stay sharp and stay alive um you know join the the Coinbased trading competition because this will force you to look for trade opportunities.

29:24 So that's one thing that I've done. Then the other thing that you can do of of course is to um as usual just keep dollar cost averaging. And that's what that's what I do over here, right? Pretty much every time I log on this Coinbase account, I just put in another $100 buy. All right, another $100 buy. So if you haven't already, I did a video, I believe it was on Thursday, last week.

29:44 Maybe what we'll do is we'll attach it. So afterwards, maybe hardest, you can attach that Thursday video below Coinbase over here where I showed you guys how you can um use AI agents as well to level up your trading. Right? So if you haven't done that already, go check that out. Um I've made my spot by in terms of the derivatives trading, that is the only thing.

30:03 So leverage trading is the only thing that counts towards that $2 million Coinbase trading competition, which is where you're going to stay sharp and stay alive. You don't have to trade all the money in the world, right? You can go with a smaller amount, but stay focused looking for opportunity. So, if you want to join that, you will have to use this particular link because it's only for my community that's part of that competition.

30:24 Um, but joining this link gives you 80% off of your spot fees and it gives you $275 signup bonus, which now it seems like no one's having a problem with claiming that. Um, in the beginning there was an issue. So, I'm I'm glad to hear everyone's getting those bonuses. and then join into that competition by clicking the register link below. All right, remember this competition starts soon, right?

30:47 Uh we you want to start your registrations now. It's going to be a 3-week long competition. All righty. Amazing. Let's go into altcoins. What's going on over here in altcoin world? We spoke about the importance of the ETH BTC chart because you do have a supporting trend line coming into play. Touch point 1, two, and three. Remember, if this does break towards the upside like this, this is kind of an indication that we're going risk on.

31:10 That means that the worst is probably over. Bitcoin's reclaimed Thursday's high. The stock market reclaimed Friday's high, and the RSI is bouncing back up through that bear trap zone that I just highlighted. All right, let's just quickly go over something over here because this is actually pretty interesting. Um, Coinbase fees are crazy high. That's actually a fallacy.

31:31 This used to be true, by the way. It used to be true. But I can assure you, you can go back um use AI and go and have a look. Coinbase actually has some of the lowest trad or excuse me, the lowest um perpetual trading fees in the market. Okay, that's that used to be the case. It was very very high, but they've tried to make a move more into um some futures traders.

31:56 So, they've actually dropped the fees extremely competitively, much lower than other uh tier one exchanges, right? You'll be surprised if you go and have a look at that. And I think the spot well spot I'm giving you 80% off with this link. So, it's actually a good deal. Um, all righty. Anyways, so this will be a risk-on signal if if we see ETHBTC bounce off of the zone.

32:14 But you got to keep an eagle eye on this, right? You got to keep an eagle eye on this because of course for now locally, this is moving towards the downside. If you zoom in, this is moving still towards the downside. You really need this thing to shift. You need it to break structure. You need it to start to move up. You can argue this is still just corrective within a broader downtrend.

32:36 If this starts to break down the ETHBTC chart, big riskoff signal, altcoins are going to get absolutely smacked silly. And um if you are oversized in those markets, you're going to get rinsed, right? So here it is. This is the level. It's one of the zones we looked at for Ethereum bouncing out of there. Again, we highlighted um on Friday already the importance of recovering Thursday's high.

33:00 So, it's still the same level. 2388 is the level to overcome. Oh my word. L Chris says that airplane crashed into his neighborhood today. That was that Leah jet. I saw that. Uh terrible. Very sad for for the people on board. I heard the the um radio signals when they're calling Mayday and stuff. Um like basically like a dart straight into the ground created massive crater.

33:24 I mean obviously instantly instantly dead with that kind of a plane crash. Crazy. Um yeah in Palm Beach. So someone in Palm Beach is still awake. Amazing. Uh probably because of the noise, right? And the chaos on on that side. I'm sure with the all the tensions geopolitically that everyone probably thought it was something else. All righty. Anyways, guys, let's move on.

33:45 H let's have a look at the rest of the markets over here. Let's look at some of these major. So for pump, I still think there's a good chance that pump's going to come down and sweep 3376, right? 3376. I think that that is where the stop losses are sitting. This is going to be the level to take out, right, market makers, before this thing goes higher, I think you're going to see something like that.

34:05 You're probably going to sweep um that zone over there. Uh let's move on. We got Aster still holding this position. Our orders are safe. It's one of the only risk on things that I have right now when it comes to crypto is holding this AA position. So, keeping an eye out on that. Um, hardish by show me how many fingers how much time do I have there. Oh, he's showing zero fingers.

34:27 All right. Okay. Well, we'll we'll we'll close it off over here, guys. I do want to let you know for those of you that are in whale room, you'll find if you go through to the live rooms over here, right? If you go through to the live rooms over here, we are going to be doing a live trading room shortly after this video. So if you're in Whail just go have a look in the um notifications area where you'll be able to find that if you do want to join there.

34:52 It gives you access to the terminal like this. So basically if the traders are dropping trades, you're going to be able to execute those trades pretty much um straight away. All right. For also for two bit, if you are on Two Bit, you can come through and you can spin the wheel over here to win uh potentially one of those new iPhones, right? As well as some other prizes.

35:11 So guys, let's leave it at that. I do appreciate each and every single one of you. I'll see you all on the next one. Have a beautiful day, guys, and cheers for now.