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Crypto is about to get EXTREMELY INTERESTING! (What Comes Next?) Transcript, AI Summary & Key Points

Altcoin Daily · 3 days ago · Science & Technology · 12:28 · EN-US

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Answer

Yes — the case is that Bitcoin's bottom is likely already in (2026 two-week MACD cross, extreme-fear historical averages, 2023-style setup) and the next phase is a major Wall Street-driven bull cycle, with Ethereum positioned to lead toward $5,100 short-term and potentially $10K+ long term.

AI Summary

Bitcoin sits in extreme fear around $75,000, but historical data after extreme fear days shows average gains of 50% six months later, 60% in a year, 83% in two years and 100% in three — so the bottom is likely in and Bitcoin should trade above $100,000 sooner rather than later. The daily chart sits below the 50-day moving average but above the 200-day (and above the 50-week and 200-week at ~67k, 50-month at ~64k), making a capitulation to 67k unlikely; a 2-week MACD cross that marked bottoms in 2019 and 2023 has already appeared in 2026. Conditions mirror 2023: exiting a bear market before the market realizes it. Tom Lee argues the crypto bull market just started and this cycle will be driven by Wall Street adoption — tokenizing all assets and building settlement rails on crypto. Ethereum is even more bullish: number one among smart contract chains in stablecoins, tokenized assets, applications, developers and investment products; repeating its 2025 breakout (2.35x) would put ETH at $5,100 in the short-to-mid term. Vitalik Buterin lays out Ethereum's 10-year outlook at Devcon: survive quantum and AI threats first, become the best post-quantum, post-AI store-of-value blockchain, then scale real usage — financial apps, prediction markets, decentralized social, identity and on-chain data — with privacy (EIP-8288), rising gas limits, and AI plus formal verification making secure app-building far cheaper within 18-24 months. A Bitcoin/Ethereum ratio breakout would lift altcoins broadly.

Key Points

  • Bitcoin trades around $75,000 in extreme fear, below the 50-day moving average but above the 200-day; the 200-week moving average sits at ~67k and the 50-month at ~64k, so a capitulation to 67k is unlikely.
  • Historically, after extreme fear days Bitcoin averages +50% six months later, +60% one year later, +83% two years later, and +100% three years later — even the worst three-year return was +13% annually.
  • Bitcoin already bottomed before the 2-week MACD cross appeared in both 2019 and 2023; that cross has already happened in 2026, so the bottom is likely in.
  • Current conditions resemble 2023: coming out of a bear market at a higher high while everyone stays bearish waiting for one more dip that never comes.
  • Tom Lee: the crypto bull market just started, crypto winter ended about a year ago, crypto will rise in the face of bad news, and this could be one of the biggest ever crypto bull cycles.
  • This cycle's driver is Wall Street adoption — tokenizing not just dollars (stablecoins) but all assets, and building settlement rails on crypto.
  • Ethereum is number one among smart contract blockchains in stablecoins, tokenized assets, applications, developers and investment products.
  • Repeating Ethereum's 2025 breakout of 2.35x from current levels would put ETH at $5,100 in the short to midterm; below $10K Ethereum looks undervalued for the next couple of years.

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00:00 I think that this cycle is going to be very much about Wall Street adoption. I think crypto is going to still rise in the face of bad news. I think this is going to be potentially one of the biggest ever crypto bull cycles that we've seen. Bitcoin is back in extreme fear as price hovers around $75,000. Guys, smash the like button. There's so much going on in crypto today.

00:25 Let's talk about what happens next. Taking a look at Bitcoin on the day chart, we are below the 50-day moving average, but above the 200day moving average. Now, historically, the 200day moving average, Bitcoin tends to stay above it in a bull market. Let's switch to the weekly chart. Bitcoin on the weekly chart still above its 50week moving average.

00:58 Historically an important metric. We could dip below. We tend to stay above. And of course the 200E moving average is at 67. A lot of people think Bitcoin capitulates down to 67. I do not think that is likely at this point. And then taking a look at the month chart, the 50month moving average is at 64. The market is betting that Bitcoin drops. The market is betting that Bitcoin goes lower.

01:29 But historically, let's look back at previous times where Bitcoin sentiment hit extreme fear. And what is the average of what usually happens later? Interesting. Historically, after days like these, six months later, Bitcoin is 50% higher. One year later, Bitcoin is 60% higher. Two years later, 83% higher. 3 years later, 100% higher. Even the worst 3year return.

02:00 This is after the market tops and the bare market just beginning. Market hits extreme fear. Even the worst three-year return, Bitcoin was up 13% annually. You know what to do. So, Bitcoin pulled back to a higher low and suddenly the market is drowning in fear, uncertainty, and doubt again. We've been here before. It might take a few weeks, might take a few months.

02:27 Hey, it might take a few days. But when Bitcoin is back above 100K, a lot of people are going to wish they had paid attention at these prices. But then again, opportunities like this always look obvious in hindsight. Even thinking about the seasonality, I mean, really, there's been a scare after the blue wave of the midterms. The market is bearish. But the counternarrative is bullish because historically buying Bitcoin around the US midterm elections has been one hell of an opportunity.

02:58 Look, you're never going to catch the exact bottom, but the point is there's so many reasons to be bullish going forward. Then again, there are still so many analysts who don't even believe that the bottom is in. Well, take a look at this. Bitcoin had already bottomed in the previous two bare markets by the time the MACD cross appeared on the 2 week right here in 2019.

03:26 right here in 2023. It has already happened for us in 2026. The bottom is likely in. Hey, hey, do me a favor. Smash the like button, but only if you're getting value in today's video. And speaking of 2023, where we are today reminds me so much of 2023. Now, 2022 was the start of a brutal bare market. In 2023, we were coming out of the bare market into a bull market.

03:54 It's just the market didn't realize it yet. We were at a higher high than what was the low, but everybody was still bearish, waiting for Bitcoin to break lower again. So, right now, the market continues to switch back from extreme fear to extreme apathy. Bitcoin looks boring right now, the same as 2023. Nobody cared. Everyone was waiting for one more dip and then it ripped and that dip never came.

04:24 It's impossible not to be bullish right now if you actually look in to the massive plumbing infrastructure buildout, the massive adoption that's happening right now. Not to mention, we're coming out of a bare market. Our entire interview with Tom Lee just dropped. This is a 58 second clip. I agree with what he says here. He says, "I think this is going to be potentially one of the biggest ever crypto bull cycles that we have seen."

04:54 But on the crypto, yeah, I mean, crypto bull market just started. I think we're seeing this on ample display. But, you know, because crypto winter basically ended, which was about a year and now we're in a new bull cycle. I think crypto is going to still rise in the face of bad news. You know, we always have to think about what's going to drive the cycle.

05:14 While the last two cycles, one of the cycles was about NFTTS and the NFT boom. And last year it was about stable coins, I think that this cycle is going to be very much about Wall Street adoption, which is tokenizing not just dollars, which are stable coins, but tokenizing all assets and then building a lot of settlement rails on crypto. So, I think this is going to be potentially one of the biggest ever crypto bull cycles that we've seen.

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06:38 New users can earn this by using our link below. I'm bullish on Bitcoin. I think it's going to be trading above $100,000 sooner rather than later. I'm even more bullish on Ethereum for sure and quality altcoins. But speaking of Ethereum, this is one hell of a base, one hell of a launchpad that ETH has been building. The breakout will be offensive. And we can say that confidently for a couple different reasons.

07:04 one, the adoption, the plumbing, the infrastructure, the buildout. It's undeniable. Among the smart contract blockchains, Ethereum is number one in stable coins, number one in tokenized assets, number one in applications, number one in developers, number one in investment products. So, if Ethereum only does what it did in 2025 when it broke out of its range, that would be a 2.35x.

07:33 And if we did a 2.35x from here, that would put Ethereum at 5,100 in the short to midterm. In the long term, Ethereum can go a lot higher because like I said, there is plenty of reason to be bullish. And when you understand where Ethereum is going, and Vitalic just laid it out at Devcon, um I'm really excited for for the future of crypto. Listen to Vitalic describe what's next for Ethereum.

07:59 He says, "Step one of winning is surviving. And beyond that, we are making Ethereum the best postquantum, post AI store of value crypto blockchain." I'm surprised Ethereum isn't pumping harder right now after he's saying this. >> What does winning look like for the network in the next decade? And what early signals would show you are in the in that path?

08:25 >> Step one of winning is surviving, right? I think uh you know we're all concerned about quantum computers about AI um and what all of this will do both to uh our code and to our cryptography and making sure that we're well positioned to uh be fully secure and uh survive through that is going to be extremely important. Um so that's one and then once you can survive then uh and once uh at least even applications that exist on Ethereum can survive then the next step is uh getting um Ethereum actually used at a much

08:57 higher scale right and uh there's a lot of things that you can do know there's a lot of ideas for financial applications there's prediction markets there is uh applications that are not even financial at all like things in the decentralized social category things in like reputation and identity and like putting data on chain for different kinds of security reasons.

09:20 I mean there's still DAO, there's all of these uh different things, right? And uh I basically just wants to see like those like all of those things built those things built and built in a way that meaningfully protects and improves people's uh privacy, people's security, people's ability to openly participate and uh like does it in a way that really reaches people.

09:45 Nobody talks about Ethereum at 10K or beyond anymore besides maybe like Tom Lee, but I mean I I really think Ethereum is undervalued in the next couple years. Um if it's below 10K, hey, you listen to Vitalic articulate Ethereum's 10-year future himself and you decide for yourself. What's one thing that used to be hard or expensive on Ethereum that will become easy and cheap in next 18 to 24 months and will change how people build to use it?

10:16 I think basically everything right I think so first of all privacy um with uh EIP8288 and with the gas limit increases it uh stands to become much cheaper uh basically right now the any privacy related transaction costs like I mean at the minimum more than 300,000 gas but actually many implementations are pretty inefficient they go up to like a million and uh that will go down by a lot and at the same time become quite safe.

10:44 That's a big thing that EIP8288 does. And so doing any private operation will become much cheaper. Um second uh I mean everything right because gas limits are going up quite quite a bit. Um also a third that's good to appreciate is uh building applications and making those applications safe, right? Like safety used to be a uh a massive auditing problem and even still you'd have no idea if something is safe, right?

11:11 and uh coding standards have improved a lot. And of course this year we have AI and formal verification. And those two things together are making it much more practical even for solar developers to build individual applications that where you can get a very reliable guarantee of uh their security. Um so I think the impact on that for people building applications is still very underrated.

11:38 Ethereum versus Bitcoin is looking strong, looking ready for a breakout. And when this happens, I mean, we usually see altcoins in general break out. And I'm I'm looking forward to this. Again, my friends, sign up for Bitbase and you can unlock up to 14,550. Look, taking a look at the back end, a lot of people in our audience have already unlocked 2,000 3,000, $5,000.

11:58 If you complete all the tasks, you can earn 14,550. This offer isn't going to be around forever. Only available for new users for Bitbase. Sign up, start trading, you can earn more money. My name is Aaron. This is Altcoin Daily. Check out our interview with Tom Lee. We have a lot of great interviews that are set to be released this week. So, you want to stay subscribed with notifications on. See you tomorrow, my friends.