Crypto Looks Safe… Until This Happens! Transcript, AI Summary & Key Points

00:00 I know we had this correction overnight, right? So, I was watching it. I don't know if you guys were, but I woke up in the middle of the night and there we go. Bitcoin went to 80,950. In fact, when I was awake uh at our time was around 4:00 in the morning. You could see Bitcoin was at exactly 80,950. And I thought here is the correction that I've been waiting for, right?

00:19 And I have been waiting for a correction. You know that my bias has been towards a correction. And so, I've restrained myself from buying anything, right? And I know that we had $800 billion, $800 million of traders liquidated last night in this little V-shaped correction, but that's not the correction I've been looking for. I know that the direction has changed.

00:40 If you look at the RSIs, what you can see, the RSI's broken on the trend to go down and it's now retesting and therefore I favor a move down before I favor a move up. Right? But this is not the move that I'm looking for. The move that I'm looking for is much deeper. It's much much much more pronounced, right? And I'll show you some some some vectors and some some data points that I'm looking for before I will be ready to deploy again.

01:04 And I know it's tempting to deploy now. I told you that, right? I don't know if you guys watched, but I told you yesterday we're dropping the Sonic video. And you should probably get yourself some Sonic before we dropped that video. I did tell I told the people specifically in the Discord community. Um, in our Discord community, I actually dropped them.

01:22 As you can see, we dropped the video for them before. And here we go. We dropped the video and now the market's starting to react to the video. So, I know it's There we go. Sonic's up 7 70 7.3. Um, I told you guys, don't say I didn't tell you yesterday on the show, I said to you guys, you need to do it. But with all of these temptations in place, I'm still not deploying money.

01:43 And I'll tell you the reason why I'm not deploying money is because I'm looking for the correction. We got a stage. We got to a stage last night where because the Korean markets and the Asian markets, the Nikai basically went down, the Korean markets basically went down on these AI concerns that we potentially got to this level, but now we've bounced basically back.

02:03 So, I'm going to show you what I'm actually looking for. I'm going to show you the kind of levels that I'm actually looking for. I'm going to show you when I'm going to start deploying again. Um, I'm almost going to show you why I think it's almost inevitable that we're actually going to get this correction. So, listen, if you are new here, my name is Cryptoman Ran.

02:17 I'm here every single day, even with my broken collarbone, which I showed the viewers yesterday. I am dying from the pain today. But I'm here and I'm bringing you crypto love and I'm and I and I'm bringing you crypto wisdom. So, um, if you're new to the channel, subscribe to channel. If you've been here for a long time, why? Someone says, "Why is Sonic pumping?"

02:34 Bro, did you not see the video that we dropped yesterday? I told you guys I'm dropping a video on Crypto Insider. That's the video. I warned you. The title says you've been warmed and now it's moving. Just focus on the points. Listen to the points. The the people in front runners actually got that way before everybody else. It's like there it is. The people in the Discord group got it way before everybody else.

02:57 Um all right. So for those of you who are here, um smash a like button. I see there are 500 of you here. Um and there are only 56 likes. Um I'm here bringing you love. You can just smash the like. How's that? Anyway, let's get into it. Let's get into it. Let's get into it. Let's look at at at the move that I'm actually looking at for. So, the first things I want to say that we have been challenging this specific level for quite a while now.

03:24 Right now, there's two walls of worry. The first wall of worry is around 86 $87,000. So, if you look at around 86 or $87,000, there is two cohorts sit underwater. buyers from 1 to two years ago at 97 and then um uh from 6 to 12 months ago at 89, right? Those who bought the 2025 rally are selling the most coins per day. So that the first reason why we can't break this level is because those that bought in 2025 are starting to sell the most.

03:57 So like there's a cohort of people starting to sell. The second reason why we we can't break this level right now is because institutions are selling faster than retail can buy. Now this guy Dark Frost actually ran an analysis and he compared Binance traders to Coinbase accounts. Coinbase institutional accounts. Now that's a very good comparison. The reason why it's such a good comparison is because Coinbase institutional accounts are only for institutions and Binance is for traders, institutions, etc., etc.

04:25 So when you can compare the selling activity on Coinbase institutional to Binance, you know whether the institutions are the ones selling. And what we see right now is that the institutions are actually the ones selling. the macro worries are getting them to sell Bitcoin. What he says here, he says, "The climate is therefore unfavorable for Bitcoin, which is perceived as highly risky for the institutions, but the crypto guys are like, "Hey, bro, we're in a bull market now."

04:52 And so, you've got the the the crypto bulls and the institutional bears basically fighting each other. And that's and that's basically uh where we're at today. biggest Bitcoin's biggest wall of worry sits just above where we are at which is 84 to 86,000. So you can see that wall of worry over there and that's why we cannot break this level right usually when we break this level.

05:17 So you can see like if you look at like previous times when we break this we usually go a big move up. So when eventually we do break we are going to have a big move up but I do suspect that we are going to go down first. Now how far how how far down are we actually going to go? Kind of like look where are my levels here? My first level would be this level over here.

05:37 I would say that 676,000 76,500 good level, right? If if we can get to that level, the reason why I like that level is actually twofold, right? So the first thing is if you look at the high, the high is about 87. So you take the high, you say 87,000 number one, you go all the way down from 87,000 to that level over there. That is a 12 or 13% correction.

06:03 Okay, I'd probably expect slightly more. I'd probably expect about a 15 to 16% correction. I'd expect it around 72. However, I don't want to go under the 50we uh exponential move the 50we simple moving average because every other bull market when we've broken the 50, we haven't actually gone under it, right? So, I want to I mean, ideally, I want to try and stay above it, but that wouldn't give us a big enough correction, would give us a 13 or 14% correction.

06:27 My base case is that we go and touch back on that line and retest that line. That would be my base case. Before that, I wouldn't be touching this market. I wouldn't be buying anything in this market. Right? What I know is I know that the momentum has changed. So, if I look at the RSIs, you can see that the RSIs have started to move down. They were moving up before.

06:45 They've started to move down. They're retesting. And I mean, either they'll break out or they'll they'll break back down. Right? The next thing is I'm looking for a correction that basically looks something like this, like 20%, 17%, 15%. That's more the correction that I'm actually actually looking for. I do know that when we break the 50we moving average between 3 and 9 weeks after we break the 50we moving average, we get a correction.

07:09 So that's the correction that I'm looking for. It's not what we saw yesterday. It's not something that bounces back in in 20 seconds. I'm looking for something that's going to scare people. Like I mean, you know, corrections are designed to flush the exuberance out the market. So in order to flush the exuberance out the market, you got to scare people.

07:29 You can't like I don't know, bro. If you were asleep and you woke up in the morning and you saw this, like no one was scared. No one's scared. Like if I look at the fear and greed here, that's what the fear and greed looks like. It's still at 54. It's still I mean, okay, 53. It's it's neutral. You want to in a correction, the the the most important thing in a correction is to actually get people scared.

07:52 No one's scared. Hartis, are you scared? I'm not scared, bro. I'm not scared. Are are you guys in the chat? Are you guys scared? We're not scared. The correction will be over or will start officially when people actually start getting scared. And right now, nobody's scared. So, I'm looking for a real move down. Um I'm looking for it to happen in such a way that maybe we stop at 76.

08:13 I'm I'm looking for it to happen so that the sentiment changes for the first time in this cycle. Right? Let the let the sentiment change for the first time in the cycle. When people are scared, they'll start closing their altcoin positions. What you can see right now is that the altcoin open interest is so much higher than it should be. Oldcoin open interest relative to Bitcoin open interest, which is the blue.

08:35 We are in a level of exuberance where people are so comfortable that they're willing to take leverage on the old coin positions, right? That we need to flash that. We need to we need to go up to here and flush that down. So, that's basically what I'm looking for. We need to get to a point where the funding goes purple in other words. So when we say let's just see if I can go far enough back to show you what let's see if we can.

09:00 So you see you want you want you want to see a lot of purple on that chart, right? You don't want to see someone says onesi on a freance means that we're not scared. So right now this is not the correction that I'm looking for. You want to see the leverage closing and you want to see the open interest closing. So this is what a correction looks like, right?

09:18 when the open interest on old altcoins moves down, you want to see a move down. That's not a move down. That's the beginning of a move down. And so I think right now probabilities are we're going to go we're going to go down before we basically land up going up. And the options are are basically saying the same story. So if you look at the options market, um as Coinbase says, the options tell a different story.

09:39 October 16th has 1.2 billion open interest with a put call ratio of 44. Puts are negative and calls are positive. uh 1.4 of 1.44 which means that for every call there's 1.44 four for puts which means generally people are quite negative, right? So generally people are uh um are bearish. So you can see that over here. So that's the put ratio. You can see that the puts are much higher than the calls.

10:05 But as you go later in the year, you see that people become much more bullish again. So they're looking for a correction and then they're looking for another move back up. Right? That's basically what we're doing. So it's a correction and then it's basically the big move back up over here, right? That's what the charts are telling me. Now, let's look at the onchain metrics.

10:24 The onchain metrics are pretty much telling me exactly the same story, which is again why I hold my conviction. So, the shortterm holder supply that are in profit is too high. What does that mean? It means that people who bought Bitcoin not so long ago and don't really deserve a return. So, we say don't really deserve a return. People who bought uh uh in the short-term holders who bought are in um are in profit.

10:46 Now, generally when short-term holders are in profit, we usually correct. So, if you look at if you just look like generally when the short-term holder ratio profit ratio uh goes green, generally we start to correct just after that, right? So, again, we're probably looking at a slight correction because the short-term holders also the the when when the unrealized margin goes green and peaks, that's also unrealized unrealized profit and loss means that people are sitting on a whole lot of unrealized profit.

11:14 When it goes too green, then basically we get a correction. And so to me, favoring a correction right now, not making any investments, as tempting as it is. Holy this is actually very tempting. 7.3 cents. We call it in the Discord at 5.5. Um, the receipts are over here. 5.52. There it is. It's now 7 something cents. Some people are still sleeping. All right.

11:36 So, let's talk about some events that may happen that may be the catalyst for the correction. And again, like correction, you just need a catalyst. The first thing is there are inflation numbers that are coming out tomorrow. We must keep our eyes open for the inflation numbers that are coming out tomorrow. CPI data coming out, consensus forecast 3.6%, the previous one was 3.4%.

11:56 If we get higher than 3.4% uh 3.6% tomorrow, that could dampen the mood a little bit. Markets may correct a little bit because that could mean that we're going to get an interest rate hike. Right now, there's an 80.6% chance of no interest rate hike at the next FOMC, which happens a little bit before the midterms. We have midterms at the end of the month.

12:15 Don't forget that. Remember before midterms, the Iranians may want to just remind the Americans how much they hate Trump and so they may drag him into a war and maybe cause him to lose his composure, right? So, be careful. Watch out for the next like one or two weeks before the midterms. Watch out for um for escalations for war escalations to basically uh uh flare up again.

12:36 The other thing even though I don't think this is really going to move markets is this uh MCI global thing. So what is MCI Global? Msei Global is an is an indexing agency and you know they've threatened to remove Micro Strategy from the all the Msei indices. Now that's not such a big thing anymore because Sailor is not such a big buyer anymore but I mean it could cause a dump in Micro Strategy stock.

13:01 So if you look at the Micro Strategy stock, it's currently valued, if you just took the Bitcoin less, the debt and all the all the press, it's valued at $131 per share. But if you look at the actual price per share, it's at about $155. So if it gets removed from the MSCI, which we think it will on Friday, I think on Friday is when it ends, right? I think on Friday is is when they make the decision.

13:26 Um Micro Strategy can be removed from the MSCI indices and then all these index tracking funds that hold Micro Strategy won't actually hold Micro Strategy anymore. So that's basically something you need to look out for. Okay. So again, favoring a correction. I've showed you all the data points as to why I'm favoring a correction. Um the name of the game here is patience.

13:46 So be patient. You will get your buying opportunities. This is not them. Yes, this is tempting, but this is not them. We're not looking for these buying opportunities yet. I do have a problem. My my trade here, my variational trade um is a little bit going against me. I'm 5K down. So now, what what do you do in this in this kind of situation? Remember, I opened up a long on near and a long on lighter.

14:08 And the truth is, if I was favoring a correction, I shouldn't have opened up a long a long I should have just waited on the sideline, but I had itchy fingers and I opened up a trade on lighter on variational. Um, so now there's two ways to treat this. I could cut I could cut this here. Someone says, "You're always sick." I'm on a lot a lot of painkillers, man.

14:27 I'm on a lot of painkillers. Um, I could cut this trade over here now, save myself the 10 grand that I've got in the portfolio and then buy the dip. Or I could ride this all the way down and go all the way back up, which is actually what I'm going to do. Why? Because I actually like these positions from a fundamental point of view. Lighter is a great position for me.

14:46 Near is a great position for me. So, from a fundamental point of view, I'm not going to cut them now because I do know sometime in the cycle, they're going to be a bit later. If you were a trader, then you would do it differently. If you were a trader, you would have traded this. You would have cut with your stop loss long time ago. Um, a couple of other things today which which are probably worth talking about.

15:04 One, as I said, we published a video on on Sonic. There are the results for you. Uh, that's the video if you want to go and watch it. Second thing is um I don't know if you guys watched this but Canton actually so S&P D Jones indices complet just completed their first ever derivative swap on a crypto blockchain and they did it on Canton. So I mean I know the guys from Canton they've been working on this for a long long long time but actually the S&P just executed their first interest rate derivatives exchange uh

15:32 transaction on Canton. So this is part of Canton's big institutional push. remember they signed up the DTCC which is the clearing house right um they signed up the DTCC um to clear who are the biggest clearing house of transactions in the US they signed up the DTCC to start using Canton they are going to use other blockchains but the first blockchain they're going to use is Canton which is which is I think amazing uh price of Canton hasn't moved yet it's it's still at 13 cents or 12.5 cents um also remember Salana's

16:02 conference is coming up next month it's break it's called Breakpoint from the 15th to 17th of November, one of our researchers actually made a chart and he basically said, "Look, between 14 days before the event, you should start buying." Now, there's a good reason why maybe you want to start buying today, and that's because there was a big seller called Sky AI, which was selling $200 million worth of Sana.

16:23 They sold the $200 million. It's finished now. Sana went to like 102, now it's at 106. So, if you are a long-term buyer, then probably you could be able and and you're not you don't you don't share the same thesis that we're going to get a dip. You could actually um uh uh you could actually start buying now. Someone says um no much correction again.

16:44 Better buy now or miss out. I mean I think the name of the game is patience. I remember 97% of our money is actually is actually invested. So I mean we're not we're not rushing into anything. Um when the bounce comes back, watch out for Robin Hood tokens. We are hearing that there's a 9 figure uh grant onchain grant program which is uh starting pretty soon.

17:03 So, um, when that happens, be ready. Be ready to strike after the correction, but we'll talk about it when the time comes. Uh, anything else today? Yeah, I saw this. It's getting it's getting very, very, very, very scary with Ledger. Very scary. Where they say another Ledger device was reportedly found with a spy implant. Can you imagine? Can you imagine?

17:24 Now, these got these Ledgers with these spy implants um sending with SIM cards sending um messages with private keys in them. Well, every time you generate your private keys, they capture your private keys. It's crazy. It's so so so scary. Uh, what else? Let's look at the old coins. Um, I mean, everything's red except Sonic. Sonic's the only one that's not red.

17:42 Thanks, Banter. Thanks, Banter, for making us green. It's a pleasure, guys. It's a pleasure. It's a pleasure, guys. All the best. Um, yeah. Lastly, if you are in the United States and you want to trade perpetuals and you want to trade them legally and you also want to stand a chance of winning $5,000, uh, the you got two more days to sign up on Kelshi.

18:02 So if I mean Kelshi is a predictions market exchange but they also do pers right so you can do pips. Now look granted the the leverage is not 50 60x but if you're a responsible investor and you are in the United States if you trade $50 you get $25 for free. That's the first thing. Second thing is they've got pro mode and normal mode. Um I really encourage you and you can win $5,000.

18:24 So I really encourage you to um I really encourage you okay I'm not signing up on this machine as well. I've completed a sign up. Okay. Um I'm I I really really really encourage you to go and sign up on Kelshi this week because next week we're going to be doing the draw. Um yeah, Brain Wallet is undefeated. Yeah, but Brain Wallet doesn't remember uh you don't remember all your private keys.

18:41 Um I think that's it. Is there anything else? Remember to sign up on Kelshi because again you you need to be on a on if you're in the US rather trade on a regulated exchange and stand a chance to win that $5,000. So, um, we'll do the draw early next week, so you can sign up between now and Friday. Anything else? They got some They got some amazing coins here.

19:03 Um, ETH, Hype, XRP, Salana, Zcash, NIA. They got all the coins that you want. All the coins that you want. All right, my friends. I'll see you guys again tomorrow. Until then, trade well, my friends.