If This Level Breaks My Bull Thesis Was Wrong | Eric Krown Transcript, AI Summary & Key Points

00:01 This video is for information and entertainment only. It reflects my personal opinions and is not financial advice. Check the description for more information. Always do your own research. What is up guys? Welcome back to the show. I've been away for the last three and a half weeks maybe. I was at Token and then I was in Bali. And we're back today with Crang.

00:18 Let's check him on the stage quickly. Good day, sir. How are you? >> It's good to be back here, man. I've missed your face. I've missed your voice in the community here as well, man. It's uh it's been a long time coming. I can say that obviously October has not really seen all that much and realistically I mean [ __ ] it doesn't really seem like we're going to see much until the end of October now it's kind of starting to potentially throw a spanner in the works of my own analysis but I think we have a few updates here

00:40 I think that there are still a few major compelling things and of course we'll go over you know major risk areas as well so yeah man I'm happy to get into it >> let's go into it sir because um oil is $103 a barrel and my bitcoins are going down should I panic have I got to run for the for the exit >> always panic Yes, that's right. Buy at the lows, sell at the highs.

01:00 Bitcoin is statement. That's what we do. >> Since last week, >> oh my god. >> I'll I'll throw my my screen up on the >> my screen up on the screen. There we go. Okay. One moment. There she is. All right. Very nice. >> Yeah. >> Uh let me know when you can see it. >> Should be down around there right now. There we go. All right. Beautiful. Yeah. So, you know, Bitcoin's been tested in the same level for the past uh I mean, basically this whole month so far in October.

01:25 And that is this last trading higher low here that I have at about 80,000 bucks even. Super easy number, you know, round even number to be aware of right now. As long as Bitcoin's above there, I do look at tests into this region as more or less opportunities and I don't really have a reason to or an objective reason to change around my previous analysis.

01:41 Now, I would say the time frames uh or the time alignment of my previous analysis is definitely coming into question right now because I would have expected Bitcoin to really be, you know, rechallenging the current highs uh the current highs, I mean about 86 87,000 bucks by this time in October. So, that would definitely be a counterpoint to what I'm saying.

01:58 But for right now, until this area breaks 80,000 bucks, I'm not really all that fussed with this current price action. This is the same level that's been holding throughout this whole month. And it is based upon that spike low from middle of September uh more or less. So that's a big one for me. And as long as Bitcoin's above there, everything else that I'm going to say here is still more or less the same.

02:18 We can >> What time frames is that is that on? Bitcoin's above weekly or what. >> This is if you know, if you're going to describe a break, I would go off of a daily closure and nothing less. Um and that's basically just the lows of this uh you know, of this month so far, which is actually more so about 79,700. if you want to go for daily closure little bit more difficult to remember which is why I did go to 80,000 bucks but yeah if you want to be super exact 79700 as long as Bitcoin's above there yeah it doesn't look

02:46 amazing right now but uh as far as technical reasons objective reasons to you know abandon all hope uh I just don't see it and I'd see a lot of just very negative sentiment at the moment too um which I mean I get it Bitcoin's not going up in a straight line but uh usually during these periods of times it well it doesn't so I don't know man it's a lot of yeah I mean there's a lot of bearish sentiment spilling over from equities right now, right?

03:08 And >> yeah, and I kind of look at that as a good thing more or less. Um, but yes, you know, as long as Bitcoin's above that number, everything that I'm about to say after the statement still holds true, still is my base analysis, I guess just the time, you know, the time frame of it actually happening gets pushed on more into November rather than this month of October, obviously.

03:26 But yes, a couple of major things have happened um in the past uh in the past week, especially since we last spoke. The most recent one that happened, however, was based off of this setup right here. So, what we're looking at is a fiveday time frame, and we're looking at two major moving averages. The yellow and the green. That is a the yellow is the 21, the green is the 55 EMAs.

03:43 And basically, anytime that we've seen these guys cross in the past, both the upside and the downside, it has led to major trending moves. But right now, I'm only documenting the upside crosses here. You can see the last one was actually coming off of the previous bare market, bull market, transitional market, if you want to call it that. Bitcoin went sideways for like four or five months after the cross happened.

04:01 But all downside moves after that were an opportunity and you can see that that trend was set in you know for the next few years realistically. Similar thing over here in 2020 coming after the Rona dump and of course you know you get that same sort of cross. Bitcoin spends again another you know 3 4 months going sideways. Yeah there was a step up in there but look you know when when we're looking at the history of Bitcoin it's very easy to look at it from you know the historical lens.

04:24 It's like oh well things went up it was easy. But in the moment, I mean, sure, man. Again, this cross happened basically at the top of that rally. Bitcoin comes down about 10%. Yes, it still puts in higher lows. But this is, you know, this is uh wearing you out for multiple months at a time. And ultimately, yes, it did result to the upside, but in the moment, it probably felt something relatively similar to what we're seeing right now.

04:46 Anyways, uh I do want to acknowledge there was a failure of a cross right here. You might call that a black swan leading into the rona dump a few months later. But even then after the cross happened, you did get a decent move. Actually, you did get a decent move from the cross to the next high of almost, you know, a little bit over 18%. So [ __ ] if Bitcoin got an 18% move from here, it's well above 90,000 bucks.

05:06 Actually, close to or maybe even above $100,000. Of course, the one before that was come off of this rally. Again, just major move to the upside from about 8,000 to 14. Not bad at all. And then, of course, we got another big one right here in 2015. This one again, you know, it took realistically like half a year here. I mean, actually the majority of this we year going sideways.

05:22 Yes, long-term it did go to the upside, but again, it's going to test your patience. And then similar thing over here as well. So, going back to our current iteration of this, uh, this cross will hold effectively as long as Bitcoin's above 79,200 on a 5-day closing basis. And whenever we've seen this cross happen, it has led to, as you can see, good historic results.

05:42 And I can show you just sort of the dispersion of returns roadmap for this cross in which you generally expect, you know, when and where those returns to more or less happen. And I'm I'm I'm going over the first 90 days of this. Obviously, we see these crosses typically go on for years at a time. Um in the first 90 days, you know, that is more so a slightly up in corrective time.

06:01 Uh you can see once you get to about number 30, you're up about, you know, double digit percents around about 11% for the median return of those crosses. you know, once you get to day number 90, you're around about 15 to 16% in terms of media returns for those crosses again within the first 90 days. Then realistically, once you fast forward out, you know, 6 months, 12 months, it is green every [ __ ] time in the past and, you know, pretty big returns.

06:24 I won't go over exactly what that looks like right here just because I actually don't have it on my board and uh it's too far away for people to really care about right now, but I can assure you, very great time. Yeah, very very far away. Now, that can be combined with another major setup, a one that many people have been speaking about. Well, I guess this was more relevant about a month ago, but that was of course what that was the golden cross, right?

06:44 Everyone was talking about the golden cross, golden cross this, golden cross that, whatever. It does certainly matter and we can document this one as well. I'm just looking at two major moving averages right here, that blue 50 and the white 200. And again, long-term, you know, when you see these things cross, generally good things happen. I don't think it's as good personally as the uh as as what I just showed you on the 5day, but even this one is rather interesting because when we go ahead and reference the returns of

07:06 this one historically, we are some seeing something uh very interesting right here. And if you are if you are a volatility trader, this is actually a major opportunity. Well, potentially. Uh so what we're looking at here is a dispersion returns roadmap for all previous golden crosses. The green line represents the median of returns for all of the uh historical results.

07:26 The white line is our realized returns for this current one. And you can see at the beginning it was tracing you know the white line was tra tracing the green line nearly one to one very very close. Not that it needs to be exact but you kind of expect a round there over time. You can see it overshot however around day number 14. Then it went sideways until it basically met up with that previous um you know the previous sort of uh results.

07:49 I suppose recently however there's been a major divergence in the past 15 days. Um and we are on data number 46 of this cross by the way as well. Uh and that divergence presents a similar opportunity to what you saw over here where over here you go sideways until you kind of come back down to normality if you will over here you know if you are if I'm a betting man which I am then I look at this as effectively a magnet towards that green uh historical returns which is around about 20% at this period on day number 46.

08:18 So, you know, if Bitcoin were to trade up about 20% from here, or I guess it's more like if you want to go towards a median, that would be about 18 and a halfish from here, um then uh or 181, 19, whatever, um then basically, you know, we'd kind of be expecting at some point probably in November, you know, Bitcoin starts to catch up with us. Is that guaranteed?

08:36 No. But you can see that we are definitely underperforming as of this moment. And there is one major line that I'll say right here that'll go over most people's heads. Not because they're dumb or anything like that. It's just they don't know. This is like very sort of lesserk known sort of uh I guess trading mark market advice whatever if you want to call it that but uh price is not mean reverting in the way that many people look for it to be.

09:00 Returns however for setups are mean reverting. This can actually be proven mathematically. And what that means is is that from a trading perspective, I look at this as an opportunity. I see I see a differential between these two returns right here at this point at day number 46. And I see that as okay, there is edge for me here that if I'm bit in a direction, it's going to be to the upside and I expect this to, you know, come back up towards those previous uh returns.

09:25 Not that again because it's guaranteed, but because it's a higher probability, basically is what I'm trying to say. Um so of course you know if Bitcoin does break below last week's low or basically this month's low at 79700 then yes I would certainly reconsider um espec especially the short term I do think that Bitcoin would be coming down at least you know 76 77,000 bucks right here play out a corrective setup but realistically for the long term on Bitcoin right now the most important level for the long term again

09:51 long long long term here is the previous low from September 14th or 15th at 75,000 bucks I have to remain long-term bullishly buys as long as Bitcoin's above there. Shortterm, I can look for a bigger correction and probably negate some of those setups as well. If Bitcoin does lose this month's low again at 7,9700 again on a daily closing basis, but until Bitcoin is realistically below this previous low from September, I can't get like actually bearish calling that this is, you know, a bull trap or anything like this.

10:20 My personal opinion is that's probably not going to happen. Uh, but ultimately, you know, if if it happens, that would be an invalidation for me. That would be an objective signal that says hey I need to change around my opinion or change around my own analysis and my own sort of you know what you know my own sort of actions because there is an objective indication now that something is changing here but other than that >> just on that the thing about that right that's important is that that level was >> 63k right like

10:46 you know it was 57 it got but it got got moved up to like 60ish and that is a much higher level today than it was 3 months ago or two months ago which is exactly what you want to see when market structure is bullish, right? You want to see those those levels getting marched for sure, right? But it it is that simple. You want to see those levels getting marched up so that um invalidations are like like you can't use that like you can't use 60K as an invalidation.

11:12 I mean obviously you should obviously way >> well you could it would be a bad decision though in my opinion but >> yeah exactly I mean that is a trend and honestly man you know the longer and longer that I do this the more and more that I have a deep respect for just general trend analysis. It's the first thing that everyone should learn and the first thing that typically people do learn.

11:29 But it's it's one of those things that people just, you know, they think that is too simplistic. It it doesn't matter as much as other things. And honestly, man, the longer that I do do it, I think completely the opposite. Um, and this is coming again from someone who, you know, at the beginning of my career, I I I definitely negated tread. I also paid the price for it, too, man.

11:45 I went broke doing that. So, it wasn't great. But, uh, but yeah, man, as far as November goes, we should go over some November statistics as well. I mean, why not? We're already here. Um and uh a couple things with November. So, so what I did here is um is I looked at November returns. When you get a red October because I very likely we do see a red October here.

12:05 I mean in order for Bitcoin to close uh October green, it would need to pop back above before end of well this coming week because uh Friday, Saturday of next week is is basically the end of this month. Um it would need to pop back above 83,600. Not impossible, but eh seems a little bit further away right now personally. So, you know, if it does close red, what have we typically seen in the past uh for November?

12:28 Go, you know, with that red October and when we have seen a uh well, when we have seen November green or sorry, when we've seen a red October, we've only seen November be green 40% of the time. Not great. Also, not I mean, it's not the worst obviously. That's that's basically four out uh sorry, three out of five times. Uh yes, you know, it has been well basically red with only two of the five times being green.

12:54 It is a very limited sample size obviously. Um but even with that in mind, uh when we do see a red October or sorry red November, it's usually pretty bad actually. Uh with a median loss of about 17.5%. which would obviously negate a lot of those uh you know a lot of the previous invalidations that I just set out that would majorly call into question that this is um well immediately a bullish market for sure uh and even the long term might be called into question as well.

13:23 Now, I'm not of that opinion, but I do want to represent both sides accurately so that, you know, I mean, just because, well, stats are stats at the end of the day. Exactly. Exactly. Um, but, you know, generally November is a more green time if you aren't looking at October. Uh, you know, October's direction and usually it's one of the better returning months for Bitcoin as well.

13:43 But yeah, if we are just looking at the um, you know, the November after a red October, which it looks like we probably do get, again, not confirmed just yet. still got, I guess, seven days left to go. Uh, then November is more likely to be red and typically that is much more red time. So, you know, again, I would I would massfully uh focus on that $75,000 number that we just uh looked at earlier.

14:05 If Bitcoin does violate that, that would be a major major major warning flag to me that something significantly different is going on. Until then, I just look at this as a routine correction. Yes, the timing of this correction not ideal. Um, but at the end of the day, until it actually breaks below at the very minimum 79,700, I don't even have a reason to be looking for, you know, that short-term correction to evolve into something, you know, potentially worse, obviously.

14:27 So, you know, it's one step before the next, obviously. Um, there was another setup that I wanted to include here, but >> we obviously are very close to 79,9900 right now. >> Oh, yeah. It's tested in there multiple times. Yeah, >> it's it's definitely in that in that sort of region. Um, what kind of time frame would you need uh a closure under 75K to um >> Oh, a daily would be good enough for me.

14:49 >> Really? That's that >> a daily would be good enough. You know, if you really want to go buy the by the book, a weekly would be what you want to do. Uh, but personally, I I would I would look at a daily below there. Something significantly uh, you know, wrong is happening. Um, again, I'll pull you back to the 5day time frame right here. Or actually, let's go to this one.

15:04 It's a little bit more clean. And I'll put these guys on. And you can see, you know, when when you look at the previous iterations of this cross, you really don't expect anything lower um than the 55 EMA. I mean, again, you see this one right here from 2023. I think this one's like quite similar to what we're seeing already. And uh and yeah, Bitcoin does come down to meet it, but you don't see any breaks below, and you certainly don't see a break below the previous 5-day low.

15:29 That's a big one. And our previous 5-day low here is of course that $75,000 number. Um you know, similar thing over here. it comes down does not violate these. It's higher lows the whole way through. But again, um you know, if Bitcoin were to come down below this number, that would be a an objectively different setup than what we've seen in the past.

15:48 Thus, I would start to really um uh you know, reconsider uh what I what I am right now, which is which is bullish. I you know, I am still bullish here. I think this is I I have to interpret what's going on right now as an opportunity. Granted, you know, my higher term time frame analysis um again doesn't mean that it's guaranteed, but that's my line in the sand for right now.

16:07 >> Mhm. Mhm. Yeah. I mean, that's that that is uh that's kind of simple, right? It is look 79900 is the line in the sand for this particular setup. And if it goes below 75 and the daily closure below there, then like all the analysis that you have been doing over the last >> I guess it's really the last, you know, six months at this point, maybe even longer.

16:25 Yeah. >> Um has to be called into question at that point. >> How well the the overall bullish sentiment? Yeah, for sure. Absolutely. Yeah, something else would be going on. Uh I wouldn't want to be bullish at that point for the long term. Um although look again, this is uh again in contradiction to a lot of the other already validated setups that have been going on over on my channel, especially for the last month.

16:44 You know, that just generally show Bitcoin's going to be higher within, you know, especially two to three months. Uh and and further that you zoom out from there, the more and more likely it is. Um, you know, as far as as far as other assets that we've kind of covered on this channel, uh, maybe it might be a good time to be to to go back over gold. I don't know if you're interested in that.

17:01 >> Sure. No, no, no, no. I think actually there's a few things actually because there's gold. It's basically like hanging on a precipice. It looks like semis are as well. Um, >> yeah. >> And so, um, >> I mean this this gold because I remember when you first brought up this gold chart, I think I think gold was uh maybe 4700 4,600. and you're like, "Look, this is a top.

17:22 I've never seen more clear signals, but this is a top." Like, volatility on weekly time frame, is it extremes? Volatility on monthly time frame, is it extremes? Like, you've got a perfect shooting star um candle like lower high. Like, I I can't tell you more stuff. This is a top. And I was like, "Listen, debasement's important." And you're like, "Shut up."

17:44 >> Look, I mean, a narrative is a narrative. At the end of the day, it only matters what price does because that's what we're trading anyways. Um Yeah. You know, I still stick with what I've been saying on gold. Uh I'm extremely bearish here, as I am on silver. So, if it's more bearish in my opinion, we're just seeing the continuation of that analysis play out.

17:59 I think that is quite obvious, especially when we go to the um to the bimonthly time frame here, which is about to close at the end of this month as well. I mean, God, man, I would not be surprised at all to see this thing in the next uh two to four months somewhere below or well below 4,000 bucks closer to, you know, 33 to 35 at the very least. Um I I think if we fast forward, you know, another year or two from now, it's you're probably starting to find lows, but I think that's probably going to have a two handle on

18:20 it. It's going to be bounces along the way, of course, but uh yeah, man, this is like the the biggest thing actually in determining the top here. Oh, well, among many things, but uh one of the biggest things in determining the top for gold was simply just the cycle for gold. It it has a very very very very good history of playing out cycles on a 10-year um time schedule.

18:41 And this this cycle thus far has played out perfectly from Januaryh 2016 to the top in January of 2026. Similar we've seen you know for the past uh 100 or 150 years. Um so gold coming down you know is still what I expect. I think silver is worse. I think the Bitcoin versus gold pairing has still bottomed. However, um despite what Bitcoin does here, I think that Bitcoin will very likely continue to outperform gold.

19:06 Uh I do think that this is still a macro low right here. So that does not necessarily mean Bitcoin will go up versus the dollar. It could also be that Bitcoin just doesn't go down as much versus the dollar than gold. That's very possible as well. But either which way that I cut it, you know, I'm massively uh bullish on this one long long term. Again, short term, you probably found a little bit of a local high there.

19:24 Um but yeah, overall, man, uh I think the metals are going down. I think traditional markets are on the verge of initiate uh you know, initiating their first major correction here, too. Um, I've been saying the fourth quarter of this year for a while now for a major top. Maybe a macro top, but at least a major top. Um, I'm still of that opinion. It looks like it might be coming in a little bit early than what I expected.

19:44 I was kind of expecting more so November rather than uh October. But for right now, uh, if October closed some like this, I would definitely um, start to consider that this is a high in the making. Uh, not validated just yet. >> That's super interesting, right? because um for a very long time the first day that we the first month that we started doing these um these reviews or the these weekly monthly meetups you were like look equity is incredibly bullish um and then we spoke about you know the IPO wave that's coming

20:11 you know late um later in the year Q3 Q4 and we've already and we've seen we saw SpaceX come and you know um basically reverse uh it its initial move you've seen loads of equity issuance amongst the um major players that were pulling off equity supply for like you know the the longest time the last 10 years especially in 2025 they're now issuing more equity issuing debt so you've got like an enormously increased like that you've just got liquidity is is drying up right because so many I IPOs are coming and um so many

20:44 companies are issuing equity and both um and bonds right and then you've got like a uh rising rates environment around that as well not talking about the Fed just like generally across the board rising rates environment plus um rising cost of oil as well so all these things are just like putting heavy pressure basically on on equities here. So, it's interesting that you're um now potentially bearish on um on traditional markets here because a lot of things are coming to a head.

21:07 >> I've been bullish this whole year on traditional markets. I think now is I'm starting to think okay um it's not it's certainly there's no look with the way that things look right now. This is not an issue in and of itself. Uh my issue is that things are building up in the background that if unresolved by especially November and I mean even maybe even earlier than that um could easily lead towards you know a 10 to 15% correction from here but for right now you know what I'm focusing on is the is is this potential.

21:37 So yes we do have many drives of bearish divergence on the weekly time frame right now. Admittedly, that is not high enough time frame to realistically put in like a major massive top for, you know, an asset like this SPY. Uh, but it can have, you know, a domino effect. So, what I'm looking at right here is that bearish divergence. Plus, if this thing were to take out that previous low at 7575, that would be an issue for me.

22:00 That would initiate very likely a much deeper correction. I'm looking at a 10 to 15% correction. Ultimately, I think that is an opportunity. you know, I'm I'm not like necessarily bearish for the long term. But look, I mean, this thing, you know, it can it can trade up for many many months, play at a correction, but because it's a monthly time frame, that correction can take, you know, three, four, five months to play out realistically.

22:18 So, uh, I would still look as an opportunity. I'm not necessarily bearish long-term on a chart like this, but hey, if SPY came down to, let's say, 7,200, that'd be a big move. You know, that'd be a very, very big move. Um, again, opportunity in my eyes, but uh, but hey, I'd want to trade around that for my long-term investments personally. So yeah, I do think that there's some cracks in here.

22:37 Um, again, I'm not calling a macro top. I just think that it might be a major top. Uh, if that condition is met, again, coming back down below 7575 would be actionable for me to be more defensive on traditional markets at least. Uh, considering that this is a major top with a about a 10% move to the downside. That could get worse, I guess. But, uh, I'd be treating it as an opportunity at least on the first pass, you know, lower.

22:58 Um I mean the the bond market has been showing uh lots of stress over the last couple of weeks really and it is usually credit credit spreads blowing out first that ends up leading to equity like major equity corrections eventually. Um it's just like a like a shot across the bow almost. Um and what interesting like like just on um credit spreads now versus you know before because private credit has packaged up so much of the sort of like seeds here and below um debt a lot of that like effectively junk bonds they're not

23:31 in the um the indexes anymore. So the spreads actually look tighter than they should be because the worst kind of debt isn't there. It's in it's tucked away in um private equity. So you got like blue owl marking down um debt to zero rather than seeing that you know go from a h 100red cents on the dollar to 90 cents on the dollar all the way down. >> Little accounting trick there.

23:53 >> Yeah. Um I really want to see uh like like your analysis on um on semis. So could you put up the um >> so yeah. >> Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Uh I'm I'm definitely not bullish here. I'll put it that way. Uh look, I think that this thing is it's I mean to be fair, it's a very similar chart on the weekly compared to the gold monthly chart. Um ultimately I I have very similar opinions here.

24:16 Uh it had its chance. Um I I do think that there was a chance up until late September where this thing could have uh continued bullish. Yes. But that rejection right at 13200 was a significant one for me. I've been bearish since that. I do think in the short term you're going to correct more to the southside somewhere between 9900 to 102 103 region.

24:33 Um ultimately that should be a bounce area. I don't think it's gonna be a straight line down or anything like this. But long term I mean man this this is a this is a [ __ ] top here. The monthly is about to close as a bearish engulfing dildo. I mean this is bad. This is really [ __ ] bad. Um you even have a head and shoulders on your on your monthly RSI.

24:51 I'd be very surprised not see this thing maybe by end of year. Maybe it's early 2027. I don't know about the timing. Timing is always difficult. It's not my forte, but I'd be looking for it at least down to like 9,000 bucks is that first major stop. From there, um, I do think that things could come lower, but I want to see the reaction there first. Um, until then, you know, bounce somewhere first at like 10 101 102.

25:13 That bounce likely rolls over. That's probably a November thing. Then you come down to 9,000. I think that's the first area which you may have an argument that if it's going to be, you know, still okay long term, you'd kind of expect a low there. But until then, I'd be very defensive here. I'm not really involved much in semi. I I do own a little bit of Intel.

25:30 Um but I've I've I've dumped most my position already. Um just full disclosure. But uh but yeah, as far as semis go, um this looks like your traditional bull, you know, bull trap after a you know, after a parabolic blowoff top. I mean, god, man. It's uh very reminiscent of the gold chart right here. Very, very reminiscent. I think that similar thing is going to happen.

25:48 >> Yeah. The thing about the thing about the semi-shot, right, is that the vast majority of the um of the gains in earnings for the S&P were effectively like spent with semi companies. Um and so these valuations coming down aggressively um and the just the natural nature of the like if you zoom out on this chart you just see how cyclical these industries are just like generally obviously you're not going to see it on unless it's logarithmic but they're like incredibly cyclical right ju just like gold is um and the

26:18 patterns have played out in the past this time needs to be very very different um which you know >> for for this to not play out again basically >> look for me on on on so if that thing comes down between like 6,000 and 7,000. I'm a big buyer down there. But, >> uh, >> yeah, >> you know, right here, it's just not investable to me. Um, doesn't mean that it can't be good long term, but I think it's due for a major correction now.

26:43 But, you know, when you look across the stock market, um, besides, you know, semiconductors and whatnot, especially for like the past year or two, most things have been going sideways and down for the most part. Um, it has not been a strong broad market. Um breath has been terrible and you just got to look and and and like the you know small caps have been like straight down for the last nine weeks.

27:02 It's one it's one of the worst nine week performances ever in in in in the Russell for example. >> Um >> very ugly >> very ugly and and and you know it's it's not surprising right like you've got um 20% of the economy is property. Property has basically been frozen for a very very long time. But it's that the the economy being dragged along by the fact that AI has been um pulling in so much capital and so much is being spent.

27:24 Whether that's on data centers or semis or whatever, right? And that's been providing a decent an enormous stimulus to GDP. You could argue without that spend, the US would have been in a recession a long time ago. You've just got to look at like stocks like Nike, right? Just just pull up Nike here. How is Nike gone nowhere for the last 12 years? >> God, whenever you Europeans say Nike, it just makes my brain uh break.

27:43 It's Nike, sir. For the love of God. >> Is it actually? >> I'm pretty sure that's that's the way that the ancient Greeks uh said it, right? Nike. >> No way. Look at Look at this. Look at this charty. Yeah, >> it's terrible. >> Uh yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I think a lot of things are going on there. Um honestly though, when I'm just looking at the Russell 2000 chart and uh and homebuilders, I actually I might get absolutely massacred for saying this.

28:05 I think that they're going to put in some lows kind of where they're at right now. Just personal personal opinion. >> I wouldn't I wouldn't be surprised with that because if there is rotation out of tech, then those things are going to get those things are going to catch a bid. If you look at equal equal weight SP S&P here, I think it's RS ticker RSP.

28:23 >> Yeah. Um, uh, R Yeah, I think it's RSX actually. No, RXP. >> RXP or RSP? No, it's RSP. RSP. >> You don't look at this too often, to be honest with you. >> And then if you if you look at that like on um on the on the daily actually and over and and just turn it into like a um turn it into a line chart and then overlay S&P they have literally just um moved inverse of each other over the last uh you know two three weeks.

28:44 Maybe m maybe it's too soon. Um but it's like it's it's just like it's an it's just potentially something, right? >> Uh I don't know. I don't know if I'd say that personally. I think that they're kind of mirroring each other. um more or less except for like yeah look if if you're looking at the past couple weeks then yes they've been all but other than that you know >> yeah it's just the last couple of weeks you just seen rotation out of um um majors into um into smaller sectors basically like XLP which is like um what

29:18 which is uh >> staples that's breaking out XLE is breaking out as well and and and these are tiny tiny sectors right well well they're now tiny sectors of of um of the index and these been getting crushed for a long time >> there's there's always a bull market in something and so yeah that's kind of why I'm looking at those other charts I'm saying ah I think I think they actually are good I I I think I think probably an opportunity right there personally >> um if I'm looking at this chart yeah this is good I'd be

29:43 bullish here >> yeah you know agreed I think I think the the rotation I and again this this is this if you then if you go go out again look at like traditional um like look at just look at the index generally >> because the index is full of so much stuff it can just trudge along and you can see like And that's been happening for the last 2 years. It's just been this highly rotational market has been dragging dragging gains to to the index which is obviously why like holding the index is like so hard to hard to beat.

30:13 >> So hard to beat. >> I got to tell you man, like holding the index and for anyone listening uh holding the index, it's never the best thing to do, but it's definitely never the worst thing to do and it's almost always a generally good thing to do. Like uh I was around a lot of my um college friends from a few weeks ago and a lot of them you know have caught wind of what I'm doing and that I'm involved in markets.

30:34 So they ask me my opinion about things, you know, can I hire you as a financial adviser or should I hire financial advisor? Like hell no, dude. Just look, if you don't want to do this as like a, you know, fullon career, just buy the major indices, >> you are going to outperform 99% of hedge fund managers and financial adviserss over a long period of time.

30:52 And if you don't, you're going to perform quite similarly to them anyways. Like just holding these things because of the rotational nature of this market is it's it's never a bad decision. At least from what I can see and that at least that's my opinion as of right now. >> Well, I mean it's absolutely true, right? And also when you hold the index like what are you holding, right?

31:10 You're holding the group of companies that are the best in the world, the top 500 companies in the world. You're you're holding a group of companies that are the best in the world. Like what what do companies do? Companies take money and they turn it into more money. And guess what? If a company doesn't take money and turn it into more money, it's not in that index.

31:28 >> Yeah. >> Do you know what I mean? That that's literally what it's for. You have you have to be profitable for a certain amount of time, etc., etc. Um, may maybe not anymore, you know, with with the >> Actually, Alessandro, >> I got a big question for you, Allesandro. We're going to turn the tables here. I want to interview you for a moment. Um, oh my goodness.

31:42 Okay. >> I know I know that you're a uh I know that you're a humongous fan of the Moonshots podcast. As am I. Right. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Have you seen their recent episodes, especially the one with Chimoth? >> Uh, yes. The one where you said Bitcoin's going to zero, >> right? What is your opinion of that? Um, I mean, >> actually, sorry, I don't really care so much about Chimas's opinion, but I'm curious what you think about Alec, Dr.

32:03 Alex thinking because he's my favorite. I [ __ ] love >> that that that dude's so smart. Do you know um personally what >> he's not a fan? >> No, you know, he he not he's not a fan of um >> he isn't a fan of crypto generally, which is obviously like fine. He's a and if if you listen to sort of like the sort of like kind of ethos that he he says, he's very much like this is not financial advice.

32:25 He's always very concerned that anything that he could say may be taken as financial advice and you know he'd be sued or whatever else. Obviously what I'm what we're saying is not financial advice either. But I'm >> this could never be construed as such. >> I feel like I'm more willing to just like talk about how I actually feel about stuff. Right. Right.

32:39 Um and so >> I think the risks to Bitcoin are not small. The the risks to crypto are not small. Like if you have AI that can hack um effectively, you know, SHA 56 or or just public key cryptography, it can happen. Absolutely, it can happen, right? There's the whether it's quantum or whether it's just um AI that knows how to do enormous number factorial um and and just solve it, right?

33:07 That these things are absolutely crackable. Well, they may be crackable, but they may be crackable forever. So, you're always kind of on the precipice. >> Hold on. What what did you mean by maybe crackable for forever? >> Well, so like at what point uh is um cryptography not crackable? When would you say okay this is uncrackable? Is it when quantum computers come out or do you just go okay there might be a stronger quantum computer that comes out that cracks it in the future?

33:36 >> Okay, I see what you mean. >> So so so and so so there's it's always like a you're always on like a a treadmill, right? There could be something in the future that does it and you can't really have a guarantee from that. >> Well, you could also technically do it right now, too. >> Exactly. Right. >> Probability. Yeah. >> And and so hardware wallets um today we thought that cold hardware wallets were completely safe.

33:59 Turns out some of them are not. Like they had you had that one the ledger thing where >> cold card and ledger. Yeah. >> Cold card and ledger. Yeah. Massive problem. This is the the but but I when for for Bitcoin right for me Bitcoin is a 10 to 20x shot that if it becomes what it becomes um and it is like a backbone of like a monetary policy across the world effectively and and and or or a true store of value that actually um displaces gold effectively.

34:31 it it it has to be valued effectively at the same market cap as gold if not higher you know plus inflation along the way um and so you're holding something that is a personally I think is a 20 to1 shot if it's a 20 to1 shot you can't hold um you can't hold like a your whole portfolio in a 20 to1 shot the market is saying there's 20 it's 20 to1 sorry when I say 21 to1 I'm like bitcoin to gold's market cap right so the market is saying that if bitcoin is you know the the the newest form of gold we're giving it a 1 to 20

35:00 one in 20 chance of of being. So, which is why it's priced 120th of gold's market cap. So, you're holding something that is a 20 to1 shot. You can't put your every single piece of your uh like money in that thing and think like, okay, it's going to be all right. That's like definitely not something I would do or or I think anybody should do. Um now, now you might think it's got a higher probability than that, right?

35:19 You might think actually I don't think it's 20 to one. I think it's more like two to one or four to one. Fine. So, you can size it appropriately. Do you think there's a 10% chance or a 20% chance? If you think there's a 10% chance that Bitcoin becomes this like key um like cornerstone effectively of monetary policy in the future, maybe you should hold 10% of your portfolio in that thing, you know.

35:40 Um >> Right. Yeah. >> But you shouldn't hold >> you're speaking to an audience of crypto native people. There's no way they're doing that. There's no [ __ ] way. >> Yeah, for sure. Um but this this is the reality because people think that um you know, I can't get rich in 10 years. I've got to get rich today. I can't get rich in 20 years and it needs to be today.

35:58 They forgo real gains um and and the n and they forgo like the ability to compound their wealth because they're just so desperate to make money tomorrow. >> Yeah. Many such cases. What do you think? It's >> oh I I I think that's the crux of the human condition man is that you want things today and you'll forgo the high probability um setups that take you know maybe 5 10 15 20 years to play out.

36:18 And it just is what it is man. I can't really blame people for want for wanting money today. I want money today too. It's just my the logical portion of my brain has to say, hey, uh that's not reasonable and you have a much better chance of doing this over here. >> So, just do this over here and play the long game and you're you know, it's it's a lot more likely things will work out for you.

36:37 So, that's kind of the way that I think um you know, when I'm actually in my logical brain, man. But that's difficult. That's very difficult, you know, in the moment. Of course, as far as Bitcoin goes, I'm I'm of a similar opinion to you. um in that look like if if if it is going to do what it's going to do, it's kind of like a it's not an all or nothing bet, but it is definitely a sort of like it it either over it either either takes the position of gold or it doesn't.

37:01 And from what I understand uh about the fundamentals of it, it makes more sense in place of a gold as a store of value. From what I understand right now, which I'm not the best person to ask about this, so I can definitely see that is happening. So what's the mark cup of gold? Well, it was 30 trillion. And I don't know what it is now. Maybe like 20 or 25, whatever.

37:19 >> You think it's going to be like what? You think it's going to be Bitcoin's market cap pretty soon by the looks of those charts? >> That would be awesome. Yeah. Um Yeah. But even the gold bitcoin ratio, I mean, [ __ ] you know, I can't even expect that one to break out to new highs anytime soon anyways. So realistically, you know, a onetoone relationship is not happening by any stretch of the imagination.

37:36 you know, as far as I'm concerned within at like best case scenario like 10 years, you know, if even that and that's that's unrealistic anyways in my opinion. But hey, even if it did, you know, Bitcoin uh what its mark cap was like around twoish trillion so let's just say like there's a 10x sort of discrepancy between those. So maybe you know you know your your gains are going to be 10x on Bitcoin from what they are right now kind of like as a like a more long-term I guess uh high probability target if you will.

38:07 um it again if it accomplishes its goals. So I guess that could make sense to me. Um and that's kind of and so if you're going to be going with that which I think is a reasonable long-term potential assessment then what would be the right allocation to Bitcoin in a portfolio would probably be somewhere around like 10 15%. You know yeah you could do more if you really want and realistically what happens at least in my case is you know I was buying Bitcoin now IBIT I don't I don't actually don't like holding physical

38:32 Bitcoin. I definitely agree with Chimoth on that. I don't like holding physical Bitcoin. I think it's a I think for the wrong for for for a certain type of person, it can be a very very bad decision. Um but uh but yes, you know, you know, the problem is that when you're holding Bitcoin or IB, whatever you're going to do it, the the corollary, the problem is that it goes up typically more so that comes a bigger portion of your, you know, portfolio and then you have to decide if you want to rebalance or not.

38:55 I'm of the opinion that you probably shouldn't rebalance um that position. I think you should just let it run because the original assessment still is based off of gold's or at least for me based off of gold's value rather than Bitcoin's own value. Anyways, yeah, uh long topic, I guess, and I'm like I said, I'm not exactly the best person to uh to talk to about that, but you know, I definitely understood Chamas's arguments um against Bitcoin in that uh well, if you're a big investor, you have to do financial

39:21 disclosures. You have to tell the world basically what you hold. And if you're telling them that, hey man, I hold, you know, hundred million dollars of Bitcoin in my pocket. Is that sit in my home in drawer? Uh that might be a security risk, you know. So, I don't people robbing people for like 20k at this point. >> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, >> yeah, for sure.

39:42 >> Right. Right. It's it's all relative, you know, to the wrong I mean I guess yeah, you know, in that case um but again for for those bigger investors, they are required by law to provide disclosures or political people they have to, you know, by law uh provide what they're invested in in things like this. So, it's an even bigger issue for them where it's like, you know, just going into a random person's home, you don't know what you're going to get.

40:03 still a risk obviously, but yeah. Um, so I I would hope that they figure out something for that mix. There is a real need for privacy. You can see the appetite for that with the uh with the bid for Zcash earlier this year. >> Yeah. >> Yeah, for sure. I mean, the the one thing about Bitcoin, right, is like Bitcoin, it's an experiment and it's an experiment that's passed every test so far.

40:22 There probably is not going to be an experiment like it again. >> That is and it's the world's largest computer supercomput. The fact that there's so much pe so much money, so much energy that's pointed towards this network and the fact that you know if you just look at like price action over the last 15 years, this is signal to say there's appetite for this thing.

40:39 Now it doesn't mean that it's definitely going to achieve the things that it like you know if it's like if you wrote a prophecy for it that it could or couldn't achieve but it's passed every test so far. Doesn't mean it's going to pass the test in the future. But you can you can say right look all I've got is like the the past to base my assessments off.

40:58 For me anyway like that that low at 60k was like it just seemed this is obvious. This is this is this is this seems like a an incredibly >> this seems like a gift to be to to be honest. >> That's investable. Yeah. Exactly. >> Like and it's investable for the next three or four years. I I reserve the right to change my mind at any time. I don't care if I change my mind tomorrow.

41:17 I'd be totally happy if new information came out. I'd be okay. Yeah. No worries. And it's it's >> there's no change in your mind. Aleandro, do you think do you think I have any different opinions from when I was one day old shot fresh out of my mother's [ __ ] No, I still think all of the same things, sir. Yes, indeed. Yeah, man. Of course. But that that that that that's just for people who are on the internet, you know, who can be uh I guess, you know, you got to deal with audiences who, you know, if you're

41:43 flip-flopping, whatever. But yeah, man. You know, at the end of the day, of course, if new information comes in, you're going to change your mind. I get your point, man. Um yeah, man. Actually, sorry. I'm starting to get a little bit towards the end of my own time. Yeah, >> you got to go, dude. Yeah. Yeah. All good. All good. Just to, um, just to summarize, I know we went a bit, uh, off off track here, but effectively, uh, daily closures below 79,9900.

42:02 Warning. >> So, uh, yeah. So, the, uh, the the the big numbers to be aware for Bitcoin is in the short term, 7,9700. Basically, this month's low so far. Bitcoin closed a daily below there. I do think that this correction will draw drag on for uh, well, lower and longer. Obviously, I I would be looking somewhere between 76 to 77,000 bucks. That would be the last point realistically that I would be still willing to be long-term medium medium and long-term bullish on Bitcoin below $75,000 on a daily closing basis.

42:28 Or if you want to go by the book, it'd be a fiveday minimum closing basis, weekly probably better. Um, at that point, if Bitcoin loses that, that would be a that would be an objective uh indication that my previous analysis is not going to play out in the way that I was looking for it to play out. And I would start to reassess many different things.

42:44 I would not want to be certainly bullish in the short term after that. and maybe not even in the long term as well. But uh but until then, you know, I still remain with the bullish bias. Bitcoin, like I said, hasn't even broken the short-term area. And just as a small aside here as we, you know, as we uh close this one out, for whatever reason, something that I've noticed is that on Saturday specifically, and this is something that I really want to test a lot more of, but on Saturday specifically, a lot of the time

43:07 I've noticed that Bitcoin will have a sort of I don't want to call it a fake move, but it'll have like a fake out sort of move and where it'll put from the open to the wick, low or high, whatever it is, that move typically uh is in contradiction to like the next major direction or the next week's direction if if you will. Um, so when I see Bitcoin on Saturday, which is basically a non-trading day, I mean, this is not a real trading day from a traditional market perspective, which honestly that's how Bitcoin still

43:36 trades. I know people would disagree with that, but that's just that's just my opinion. Um, but when you see that happen on a Saturday, low liquidity sort of conditions, it's usually in my in my experience used as a fake out move. And I think that's what we might have just seen now with Bitcoin trading down a thousand bucks from where it's currently at and >> bouncing back up nearly instantaneously, too.

43:52 So, we'll see if it holds. Of course, we'll we'll continue to update on this, but uh but yeah, that's where I'm at right now. >> Awesome. Awesome. Awesome. Cran, this is just always always great. Guys, thank you so much for um for watching. Just got to shill Koshi real quick. Um go check out Koshi. Massive thanks to Koshi for sponsoring the show. You You're sponsored by Ki as well, aren't you, sir?

44:11 >> Yeah, man. I love them. >> Amazing. Amazing. Amazing. Um >> spuns all the firearm purchases in the background here. It's beautiful >> guns and ammo. >> Cran, you're gonna have to come on again soon. I know you got to go watch some >> Yeah, man. Absolutely. Um but yeah pleas to see you sir and guys at home. Thanks for watching. We shall see you in the next one. Ch. >> Take care guys. >> Wonder if it'll take me 10 hours to finish the stream again.