The Bitcoin Trap No One Is Expecting! [Confirmation Soon] Transcript, AI Summary & Key Points

00:00 They're concluding Election Day today, and the votes are coming in, and a lot of the market is starting to again position, I guess, because they have a bit more clarity in terms of what comes next. And we're starting to see a little bit of a technical bounce on the lower timeframes when you look at crypto over here. The question is it enough? We still got to clear some of those invalidation levels which we previously gave.

00:22 There is resistance overhead, but it looks at least promising in terms of a little bit of relief, a little bit of a dead cat bounce over there. The question is, what happens next, and who's going to be trapped, right? Is it going to be the bulls or the bears? Today, I didn't give you too many options. I'm forcing you to vote yes or no. Those are your only two options.

00:39 Are we seeing the macro higher low form for Bitcoin over here? This is what we spoke about. Anywhere between that $70,000 and about $78,000 region, more or less, which is where prices come into the mid-70s. Is it enough? Have the bulls got what it takes to push prices higher to form that macro higher low and to send things? Well, it looks like 62% of you believe that is the case, and you're saying yes.

01:01 39, 40, you see it keeps adjusting. It's between a 60/40 split. 40% of you believe no, that it's going to be a bull trap, and therefore price is going to be going lower. We do have certain criteria that has to be met to give stronger forms of confirmation that bulls are truly taking back control. Otherwise, it has really been a bear's game, right? The bears have been running this thing down for like six weeks in a row.

01:23 And the good news, at least if you're a bull, is that usually you don't see much beyond that, right? I think that one of the longest periods of downtrends that we've seen is about 10 weeks. Most of the time, six weeks, things start to stall out, which is more or less where we are, and you get a bit of a technical bounce. So there's a lot to look at.

01:40 We did start to build a bit of a long trade as well, gridding into those orders, scaling into the position. And if you didn't watch yesterday's show, you can go and watch that. The trade is linked as well in the description below if you want to copy that. So let's go. Let's get straight into a lot of work to be done as well on the weeklies, because at the end of the day, you still got these massive stocks like Intel, which sure they can put in technical bounces as well, but there's no denying that it's broken all

02:02 structure right now. Lower lows, lower highs. And we covered the Wall Street cheat sheet yesterday and the psychology that those traders tend to go through. Google, as we're getting absolutely obliterated, taking out a whole lot of key levels. We've got one more level to go over here at about 273. And I guess if that is lost, it's not going to be good.

02:22 And this is really the headwind that crypto faces. If it weren't for the stock market putting in a bit of downward pressure over here, then you could argue that Bitcoin is holding up relatively very, very well. And we've said as well numerous times that if Bitcoin can go into the third week of November, so if you can finish November basically and hold above $70,000, that's actually incredibly bullish.

02:46 Now, this gives you a couple of options. It means that you can either ladder into a trade by scaling in with grid orders or multiple limit orders. Alternatively, you can wait for confirmation for price to get high. That's your second option. And that would confirm that the low is in. And your third option is you can just dollar cost average over the coming months, and you're probably going to get a really good gradual entry.

03:07 So economic calendar is still pretty stacked. We have the ISM services PMI data coming out today as well. But of course, the most important thing is going to be what happens with the elections. Democrats look like they're taking certain things. So we will see. We'll see. But that doesn't mean that Trump won't be in power. He'll still be there. But I'm not going to talk politics right now.

03:26 We have the unemployment claims coming up on Thursday. And then we got non-farm employment rates and unemployment rates coming up on Friday. Now, if we have a look at the history of the market, well, what we have seen historically, if you look forward about 12 months from now, chances are very high that the prices will still be up, right? Because since 1942, every market November through to June period following the midterms has been positive.

03:51 That is a 21 out of 21 hit rate, 100% win rate with an average gain of 16.6%. And if you look since 1950, the S&P 500 has been high 12 months after every midterm, 19 out of 19 times with an average win rate of 15%. So you can be targeting 15% to 16% if things play out in a similar way over the coming months, right? That means that your next six months, right?

04:15 You've got about a six-month window over here that is giving you high probability of continuation up. Now, you'll remember yesterday's video, we showcased what typically happens to Bitcoin. And most of the time, leading into about two weeks or, excuse me, two months after the midterms, we see that downward move. But if you look six months later, how it finishes, it's usually pretty strong, which means if in the two months following the midterms you do get that downward move within that eight-week window, that's

04:42 probably a very strong buy the dip regardless because you're going to get brought up within the TradFi markets and that should carry Bitcoin through. So not to confuse anyone what that means. If you see the dip, it's a buy the dip scenario. And then you're looking at high probability of continuation onwards. And if you look at in terms of the elections, right, if you have a split between the Democrats and the Republicans, that's actually where the market performs the best.

05:08 On average, 15.1%, which is very much in alignment with what we're looking at over here in terms of what happens in those six months following the midterms. So right now we're seeing the DOW Jones holding on over here. It's got the possibility of putting in a low over here, a higher low coming into here. We still need to see the midrange. This was the midrange taken from that high to low.

05:30 It's your 50% fib taking out that high. So there is a possibility that you're going to start to bounce over here, at least on the DOW Jones. The DOW Jones looks like one of the stronger of the lot. And I guess if you're looking for a long trade over here and you want to participate in that upside, this is a pretty good spot to start to build a position.

05:49 Of course, ideally, you're going to be floating your stop loss all the way down here underneath these lows. But that is quite a way away. That's about 2.56%, which is fine if you're targeting much, much higher and you're getting like a 5R or 3R. But realistically, you've got to be targeting into those highs. It's an okay trade, a decent trade. I prefer better risk to reward, so I might be willing to go a little bit tighter like that, right?

06:12 Only risking about 1% of this. So I think this trade makes sense for now. Give it the looser stop loss, which is going to be all the way down here at 50,502. And I think this is a trade that makes sense. Once you get back above you at 53,000, you've reclaimed a lot of key structure and you're going to be looking at continuation where you can target the highs.

06:33 The interesting thing is usually if you're going to come into these highs over here, you can pretty much start to target extensions, fib extensions. So you're probably going to get an even higher move. So we'll leave this as a trade option for now. If we look at the S&P 500 over here, you're also starting to get a little bit of a bounce, a little bit of a reaction, right?

06:51 So is the bounce due? Very possibly it's about what happens next on the risk on assets, right? So if this starts to bounce and fails underneath that 7,800, that is the line that we want cleared out for the bullish continuation. Otherwise, anything that bounces up over there does have a high risk of failing as a lower high, right? Just be aware of that.

07:09 So no doubt bounces are probably due, but are you going to get a lower high? That is the question. QQQ is still struggling, right? Look at that. QQQ is now overnight trading, opening underneath the 200 EMA. So this one's still showing relative weakness, and this one's got a lot of work to do. You need to clear out that yellow line at 727. Until that happens, this is still in free fall, and any bounces that occur over here should be treated as lower highs.

07:35 So again, really the only one that looks probable for a long trade over here with a bit more confidence is going to be the DOW Jones trade, right? S&P 500 is still a bit risky. QQQ also still a bit risky. And obviously QQQ3 is 3x leverage on that, which is still coming down. But you're in key technical support, right? If you're on QQQ3, this is theoretically the bounce zone.

07:56 But I said to members yesterday that you need to be prepared that this could come down as low as about 263. So you need to be prepared for that volatility. And because it's leveraged, that could be another 24% drop is a possibility within QQQ3, right? And where that would take you is in alignment with this 200 EMA. So when you look at the weekly structure, when in doubt, zoom out, look at the weeklies, right?

08:19 The weeklies show you as well where the momentum is and who's mostly in control. So for now, again, it still is the bears, but they have the ability to put in a little bit of relief, maybe in the short term. So I'll be looking at that. I think any dip, if you do get it down here, and you sweep this level into the $260s, this becomes a strong buy. And I would still expect there's a possibility of all-time highs based on this data, right, that we're seeing over here.

08:44 Because this is probabilities, right? Probabilistically, 100% hit rate means that the odds are really on your side leading into the next six months over there. So therefore, strong moves down over here, shakeouts become dips for buying, right? Okay, cool. So we got that out the way. Let's move on. Let's have a look at what's happening in the South Korean market.

09:05 Have they got a bounce? A little bit of a bounce. Have they a little bit of a bounce taking place? So I think this is part of what's cropping up the crypto markets because we've seen the Asian markets take a lot of control right around when it's my YouTube video time, which is now, right? We see that whenever the KOSPI is going down, Bitcoin's getting tanked with it, the Asians are selling.

09:25 And when the KOSPI is getting a bit of a bounce, well, so does Bitcoin, right? Get a bit of a bounce. So a lot to look at over here. We'll go through these things one by one. Just let me know in the comments if there's any particular ones that you want to have a look at when it comes to the TradFi market. One thing that we spoke about, and you guys will remember this, is we said that even if you're long on oil, it's worthwhile, A, either taking some profits or B, putting a stop loss up here and going short to hedge

09:47 against the long position in the event that you deviate this zone. Now, you've started to reject it. You've broken the trend line over here. But yesterday's candle was pretty strong or more indecision candle. I shouldn't say strong, but more a pause in indecision. So this could easily prop back up. It's so politically charged, right, is this chart is so politically charged.

10:12 It's all going to depend on what happens with U.S.-Iran. You know, I mean, Iran were basically broadcasting on national TV to their civilians how to protect themselves in the event of a nuclear strike, right? Absolutely crazy stuff. So, of course, there's a lot of emotionally charged participants when it comes to these markets over here. But this is it's been a pretty strong down candle that we had this candle that came down on Monday.

10:37 And therefore, any little bounce over here does have a high chance of putting in a lower high and getting a bit of a sharper move that comes down into this mid-range. So this is why we spoke about taking the short trade, even if you're long on oil, just to hedge against that, expecting that when this line breaks over here, this is a lot of liquidity that can get taken out, and you might see a sharper move down into that mid-range, which will probably become a higher low, and you'll still see oil trade up higher, by the

11:01 way, at a later date. So that's currently what we're looking at. Now, of course, this will be a shakeout over here. If you do start to see oil immediately trading back above that Monday high, you know, at that point, that's a shakeout and this thing's going to break out probably in quite a big way. XLE as well hit exactly on the 161.8 FIB extension target that we had in mind.

11:23 Pulling back over here at the end of the day, you guys know the trend is very much towards the upside, higher lows and higher highs. So anything that occurs basically above here is pretty much just going to be another higher low, very similar to what I just said on oil. The pullback into the mid-range just becomes like a macro higher low for oil to get picked up again and sent higher.

11:42 So as long as the energy prices are going higher as well, it makes it difficult for the risk assets to really get going. And there's always that underlining risk, right? People are worried, hey, what's going to happen over here? We're going to see some sort of a mass unwind in the markets. All right, moving on. Let's take a look over here at the MAGS ETF.

12:02 So also threatening that trend line. If you threaten that trend line, it opens up the possibility of dropping back into the 50% level, which is going to be about 60, just under $65, right? Just under $65 over there. And then we can reassess. Strength comes back in if you take out the yellow line. So you're going to notice this commonality or parallel across the majority of the things that we're going to be looking at today.

12:23 Much of the assets or the tickers that we're looking at for bulls to truly take back control needs to take out their previous breakdown area or lower high. So for MAGS, the Roundhill MEM ETF, that level comes in at $72, nothing changes. And if we do mark down further over the course of today, if this is some kind of a bull trap, the little bit of an up candle turns red by the end of today, well, we're probably going to lower this level to then 70.

12:52 So it's going to go from 72 down to $70 as the new bullish validation zone, which means that you get long at a lower price, which is good, right? If you're, of course, patient. All right. Amazon, let's have a look at that. Nice bounce over there, doing pretty decent, getting a strong move off of that key horizontal. Google is really the one that's struggling over here.

13:14 If Google takes out this low, this thing can really start to fall through, right? So I'll be keeping an eye on this. I wouldn't step into any longs on this trade just yet. I'd be really, really patient because this thing can consolidate and just fall through. So a lot of mixed signals when it comes to the Mag 7 makeup over here. You've got only a few things that are holding up the broader ETF, right?

13:35 So it's not Google, right? Amazon is one of them. Apple is doing okay. NVIDIA is not one of them, but it's coming into key support. So you're probably going to get a technical bounce out of that yellow box. Meta is really looking a bit weird. They had a huge volatility. I mean, you're talking about 48% upside moves. Unbelievable. This is more volatility than Bitcoin provides, right?

13:55 Imagine Bitcoin went up 50% and then dropped 22%. Huge swings, big, big swings in Meta. So a sign of the times, right, which is a late cycle, right? Late cycle for the TradFi market. We have Microsoft, which is still holding up. I have been asked the question, would I go long on this? And my answer is no. People ask, would you go long on this because of its relative strength?

14:18 It's kind of choppy. It's in no man's land. I think it can swing very similar to Meta. Look at these swings, right? So you need to really have your pivot levels and your key entry points absolutely perfected. We have a bit of a throwback in Tesla coming into the 200 EMA. This is following, you know, double trap, right? Bear trap shaking people out gets back inside.

14:38 Is this a bull trap now getting back inside the triangle once again? Just advocating the choppiness, right? The big wild swing. So because of that choppiness in each of the individual MAGs or MAGs ETF, I prefer to just go for the actual ETF, right? Which is a little bit more stable in terms of its technical analysis and tradability. So keep an eye on that.

14:59 Remember, I'm not in any of these trades. I've been stopped out. Some of them at break even. Others, I took the stop a little bit higher, so I closed out in profits. But I'm out of these risk on trades, right, until such time as we see more stability over there in the market. But let's see how metals are performing a decent bounce up over here in Gold, right?

15:17 But any bounce over here is theoretically still lower high territory. So this has got a lot of work to do. Gets interesting if you can start to clear out that yellow line at 4,089, right? So call it 4,100 to make it nice and round. That's kind of the level that you want. And then you are actually getting the bounce, right? Look at that perfectly onto the 0.786 technical bounce for Silver.

15:39 We spoke about giving the bulls the best benefit of doubt possible. And this is really clutching at straws because these are not great levels to work with when you're drawing a downsloping trend line to use as a support level to bounce price. But when it's confluent, which it was, with a 0.786, it kind of makes sense that you'd get a bit of a technical bounce.

15:59 But again, this doesn't mean that you should bid it. It's more if you are sitting at a massive loss and you want to know what to do next with that position. It's going to lead into probably a technical bounce, which will probably be another lower high. And then you need to range for a while, right? So that's what's happening in the lands of metal, right?

16:17 Very, very close on Platinum to tagging that mid-range. You might bounce first and then later come through. But I believe you'll sweep that 1347, which is going to be a massive mid-range. And then he has actually a decent swing failure pattern, right? You've got a beautiful sweep over there. So if there was only one metal that I was going to go long on, it would be Copper because it's held up with the most relative strength.

16:40 You know, we can treat this as a range high. This is a range low. You've got your sweep over there. Let's quickly just clean this chart up a little bit for you guys. You've got your clean sweep over here below this candle. You've got your 200 EMA, which means that theoretically, if you're going to trade this as a range trade stop loss over here, of course, it would have been better to enter this morning exactly on that sweep.

17:00 But you're looking at any little pullback over there. You can trade this up to mid-range and then to range high, and you can leave some on the table for even high. So, of course, I'll always try and make it as easy as possible for anyone that's new to see what the trade setup looks like. But I'd be looking at something like this, right? So it stops floating down here, trading it up here.

17:21 And ultimately, you can probably target a little bit high. So I think that you can quite easily realistically get a three to one risk to reward ratio on this trade. And you're going to want to take partial profits along the way. So if you see this price come down a little bit low over here, keep an eye out on this wick right around the 200 EMA. If metals are going to put in a sizable bounce, this is the trade, right?

17:41 So we've got two trades on the table. We've given Dow Jones and then we've given copper. So those are going to be the main positions that I'm spotting for now. All right, moving on. Same story, aluminum putting in a bit of a technical bounce. Watch out for the lower highs. Even Palladium, which has just been decimated. This one could put in a very strong move towards the upside.

18:02 It will look violent when you look at it in terms of the PnL in green. But just remember that any of those moves, because it's been so aggressive down, usually this mean reverts in quite a large way. It could be double digits, 20%, 30%, quite easy, but that's still going to be a lower high. And then ultimately, I think you're going to sweep these lows down here below 883.

18:24 All right. So those are some of the main things to look at. Let's do a quick run through over here on some of the other things that have also been smashed, which is going to be SOXL. That is your semiconductor ETF, 3X leverage as well, coming into key support, right? So same story. Wouldn't be surprised to see a little bit of a technical bounce, but just be super careful in your positioning.

18:45 We have the DRAM ETFs around here, memory ETF for the memory stocks consolidating at those lows. Theoretically, it's bearish. This is still low highs. You need to get above 55 to really begin to shift things. Decent bounce up over here on Palantir, which came into the 200, almost tagged the 200 EMA. Overnight trading, you'll get another opportunity over there.

19:04 Keep an eye on this, right? Maybe a bit of a technical bounce over here as well, but at the end of the day, you've deviated this range, and when you deviate to range level, you're looking for a move back down to the mid-range, which is in pink over there. You know, not looking any better for Robinhood, consolidating underneath all of these key FIB levels.

19:21 You've broken the trend line over there. Pretty bleak. Any bounce that occurs is low or high probably and there's a possibility of moving even down into that range low over there. All right. Same thing looking heavy on MU. Intel, new lows, right? People are getting absolutely wrecked on this because what they do is they look at how far down it's gone.

19:42 You know, in quick succession, 53% from all-time highs. This thing is down currently 58% and they say, you know what, that's value. I love it. And I'm buying over here. And then it just eats through, right, all the way down into the bottom. This thing could freefall quite easily into 45 before even putting in a technical bounce. We got a technical bounce on AMD.

20:02 AMD has historically been one of the strongest when it comes to this AI sector over here. So decent, decent bounce over there. But again, you're just filling the gap and essentially putting in also another lower high. We got SanDisk consolidating under the 200 EMA. It's going to roll it over. And this is bearish until you get above there. 14.14. Nice, easy number to remember.

20:24 All right. Samsung also consolidating under the 200 EMA. It's got a lot of work to do. SK Hynix consolidating under the 200 EMA. This is asking to be swept below 10.53. Alrighty. Okay. So those are the main things that I wanted to cover over there. Let's quickly scroll through. Is there anything else that we're missing? I know some of you like to see what's happening on Nike.

20:45 We basically bought the bottom. It's still holding up. Mean reversion trade, you know, high probability rejective zones where you want to take profit on that. You know, you've got the futures gap over here. Lines up more or less with the 200 EMA. I would say anything that comes into this zone over here is going to be big, big resistance, right? So you're probably going to put in a move somewhere around like 45.

21:05 This can rally up to about 45. You want to be profit taking into this zone over here like this. So same way that you scale into a trade, you can scale out of a trade, but just because this is a long, it's inverse, right? So smaller profits over here, get more aggressive on your profit taking as it moves up higher and higher and if you can break through this level, if you can start to clear this out at 53.31, this whole thing changes, right?

21:28 And then you can just get long again, right? Because it will probably do something like this. You're probably going to do something like this, pull back. Maybe you do that. If it's bullish, you're going to do something like this. And then you'll still be able to buy the throwback, which is at a similar place to where you anyway exited. So that's the way I'd be treating that particular trade for Nike.

21:47 And then we'll go on to, where are the other ones over here? What do we have at SpaceX, right? Where's our SpaceX trade over here? SpaceX, SpaceX. Oh, there it is. Let's put it next to Nike. So it's always easy to find. SpaceX, overnight trading, coming down. Yeah, pressure on for SpaceX over here. It's really hard to read this one because of the lack of chart history.

22:09 The structure is all messed up over here. So you're kind of just looking at a ranging market. That's your best case scenario. Ranging market, watch those key fibs over there in the golden pocket. And then I'm curious what's happening in the Brazilian market. Let's just quickly have a look at that. So if we look at the Brazilian market, what is the EWZ, right?

22:27 There it is. EWZ, no bounce. This thing got absolutely rinsed when the president was reelected and everyone, foreign investors were all super upset about that. 28% down, no bounce, right? No bounce. This is a significant level. I sent this to a friend over here because he's wrong on this. And I said, yeah, you know, you just got to watch this zone over here.

22:46 And I guess I'm just going to tell you exactly what I told them. I said, this is the do-or-die situation, right? This move down over here, you want to immediately recover this and you want to get back about so that you can basically consider this a deviation and a trap. You want this thing really trading, you know, above this 35 zone, otherwise it gets a bit risky and we can view it on the other timeframes.

23:06 You know, the weekly, you might be able to say that it still is the possibility of that being a low, coming back down for some kind of a bump and run, but how are you going to manage your risk? That's the problem, right? Yeah, I was telling him I really would want to see if this is bullish. I want it to bounce off the 200-week exponential, and I want this thing to start to close back above like 35, 36 to confirm that it's going higher.

23:29 These lows have now been breached, and there was no immediate reaction. So this thing can easily now come back down to the lows. So if you're in on this, just be aware, right? Just be aware. All right, let's move on. Let's move on. By the way, for those of you that do want to trade this, I just want to give you a quick mention, because anytime there's something that can be effectively free for you, why not give it to you, right?

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24:15 So that is BTCC. You can trade a lot of these different markets over there, individual stocks, indices, metals, forex pairs, crypto, everything is over there. All right, let's have a look at Bitcoin and what this means for Bitcoin. We need to do a quick refresh here, what's going on? So let's do a quick refresh over here and see what's going on in the SKU.

24:35 Wow, that's interesting, right? I wasn't expecting that. I would have thought this would be pretty balanced. Given the way the market's been operating lately, I mean, this is a decent bounce over here in terms of longs positioning, 3%, right? 3% skew. So the differential is the 3%. We've seen a big uptick in liquidations right now. Of course, the fear and greed is going to start to spike out of that fearful zone.

25:00 And we'll look at that on another chart in a moment. But yeah, almost equal amounts, right? So 440 million in liquidations is a lot of good. Relative to what we had previously been seeing, 270 were longs getting taken out, 168 were short. If price keeps pushing higher, I'd expect this will refresh. You can see in the last hour, significantly more longs are actually getting taken out, which is interesting.

25:22 Daily exchange volume is still struggling, right? I'm not going to beat this drum too hard because we talk about it every day. You know what it is? It needs to go up. It's not going up. ETF flows are also not inflowing. They're outflowing, right? ETF flows are outflowing. ETH is outflowing. BTC is outflowing. WIKI is outflowing. ETH outflow on BTC and ETH wikis both look the same, right?

25:43 So we need these to start to position back up. And you have to think about the future. All right, so let's talk about the future. Now, of course, I want to be clear. We're building the long position over here, right? We've been scaling into the long trade. We spoke about the 21 EMA. We'll get into all this jazz. This is the theory for the higher low.

26:00 Make that full confirmation if we get above. Call it $82,000 with a daily close. We'll almost inevitably confirm that's it. The higher low is in and we're ready to move higher. So take what I'm saying, obviously, with a pinch of salt. I'm just trying to help you guys to think forward as opposed to blindly hodling for the rest of your lives. And what you need to consider is MicroStrategy.

26:23 So let's go to MicroStrategy because they haven't been in the limelight as much lately. People are kind of slowly forgetting about them. So right now, as per weekly, this is still very theoretically by the textbook definition of downtrend. What do we have? We literally have lower highs and lower lows, lower highs, rejecting of the 200-week exponential moving average.

26:44 It is, by all definitions, still in a downtrend. Now, could the bottom be in? Absolutely. If it's not in, I would still say that that would probably be the worst-case scenario is a sweep like that. And then this would just be a long-term range. This would be a deviation below the bottom of the range. You reclaim it. This is a worst case scenario for MicroStrategy.

27:04 And then once you clear out the top side of this trading range, which maybe I'll make it nice and clear for you, once you get above about 191, you should easily rally back to about like 332. But I struggle to see a world where MicroStrategy is trading significantly above all-time highs or ever even takes out those all-time highs. I must be honest, right?

27:25 To put in a move like this, again, I think is very, very unlikely. And now you need to consider the future. So the future being next year and the year after, but specifically the year after, which will be 2028. All right, why? Well, if you have a look over here from the Tulip King, you can see that Saylor's going to have a problem again, right? He's going to be fine probably into next year, 2027, September.

27:44 He owes $1 billion. And if he can get MicroStrategy above 183, which shouldn't be too difficult, as mentioned, you know, you just need to clear out this range high at 191, then he'll be fine on that $1 billion. He can pay it. But what about in March 2028, right? He owes $2 billion. If he can't get MicroStrategy about $433, which I'm doubtful that he will by that point in time because in terms of this chart, I think that you have to be open-minded that you're not going to have the same kind of bull run and

28:10 you're probably going to come into huge resistance over here. So maybe he makes this one, price comes down, puts in some higher lows, runs up, but I think this is going to be a really troubled spot over here in about $345, $360 to get above. That might be a lower high that you find. But when you look forward even further, you start to see that it becomes an increasingly difficult picture.

28:32 So 2028 in March, he owes $2 billion. If he can't get MicroStrategy above $433, which is going to be a tough call. It's possible, but a tough call. He's in trouble. What about June 2028? That's only two months later. Now he owes $1.5 billion and he needs MicroStrategy above $672. And I think this is where things fall apart. That's not going to happen, in my opinion.

28:55 That's not going to happen. Then there's another $2 billion in potential payments that go out into June 2029. So as Tulip King says over here, assuming that he cannot recover the share price, MicroStrategy will be out of cash by March of 2028. So he could make that, but by June, let's give it the benefit of the doubt. By June, it's going to be a real problem.

29:18 It says over here, but even worse, they're only five months away from having less than 12 months cash in reserves that they promised to maintain earlier this year, and he expects them to charitably interpret their USD reserves policy moving forward, like obviously changing the wording over there, right? So what does this all mean? It means that to get MicroStrategy up 40% to $183, what does Bitcoin price need to be?

29:41 So to get it up to $183, you're going to need Bitcoin to get above $107,000. That's possible, right? Getting this pig back to $4.33, then to $6.72 for the two following converts seems essentially impossible, he says over here to him. And yes, Bitcoin goes on a sun run, and I totally agree. And I don't have expectations of a sun run, so there is going to be trouble in the future, right?

30:06 He's also getting kicked out of the indices in terms of MicroStrategy. So something to consider. Now, again, why did I preempt this with saying that I'm long over here? Because it's still a trade, right? There's still a trade over here. I just think that it's important that you have a plan. That's all, right? It's important that you have a plan, that you don't just blindly stack away on cold storage over there with too much of your net worth, right?

30:31 You know, the numbers always change, right? In the beginning, 2017, usually when the risk to reward is the best, then they are the most conservative. When I got into the space, people were talking about allocating 1% of your net worth. Then as it got more and more risky, you know, 2021 cycle, they say you've got to have at least 10% of your net worth in cold storage.

30:53 Then I got to like 24, now people are talking about 50% of your net worth, when it should have been the inverse way around, right? You should be de-risking to an extent, in my opinion, because of things like this, right? So let's go on to Bitcoin price over here. The best, best case scenario for bulls right now is to basically say that's what the bottom is in and they rally it up.

31:12 Because remember, we spoke about sweeping these lines. We've officially swept the previous month's low, but you've reclaimed it. Now, if you sweep this month's low and you start to close high time frame candles below that, that's where we said there's a possibility of that ABC correction playing out, right? So in terms of the expanding diagonals, touch the high, come down into the A, into the B, into the C wave, also seen as a bear flag is still a possibility, right?

31:37 There it is. Bear flag move towards the downside. That's still a possibility, but of course, hopefully bulls avert this. I hope that they do. I don't want that to happen, right? I prefer for prices to hold up over here and then, of course, begin to rally towards the upside. But you need to be cognizant and aware of it. This was the catch 22 that we spoke about yesterday where we said that, look, if you start to close the high timeframe candles below there, you risk that monthly playing out towards the downside.

32:03 There's still a very long time to go. We've got another three and a bit weeks. We just started the month, right? So I don't think it's anything to be concerned about, just something that you should keep in the back of your mind's eye as a possibility. So if you start to break down below these levels, you break these stop and reversal indicators, you roll over the 21 EMA, that's where things start to shift bearish again.

32:24 So this is a real important zone for bulls to bid and bid hard and get price above these zones, right? So here it is, we're getting a bit of a bounce. The volatility never got actually into the extreme zones over there. So that's one thing we're looking at. And we spoke about layering that grid from the top of the pink box down to the bottom because anywhere within the zone is fair games for bulls to bounce it out.

32:44 Now, if price were to have fallen to the low levels, that's fine as long as it gets quickly brought up. And it's still possible, right? If we start to turn today's candle red, you still may be going in for those low regions like the low 70s, which is fine. You just don't want to spend a lot of time there and you don't want to close weekly candles down there.

33:00 And you also definitely don't want to close monthly candles down there. Otherwise, this starts to become a reality. All right. So therefore, therefore, what do you do over here? Yeah, well, again, I'll just reiterate what I said at the beginning of this video is you kind of have two options. One, option number one, in my opinion, was to limit order whether you're going to be spreading those limit orders or manually executing the trade or whether you're putting a grid trade.

33:24 That's what we did over here on BTCC. So if you go to the link in the description below, you can basically copy that exact trade, right? That exact trade, exact settings. They're giving you a 10% sign-up deposit. It's like $30,000 on top of $300,000. Of course, if you deposit less money, you still get the 10% deposit, but it's up to $30,000 in bonuses, and you can use those to execute that trade.

33:46 When you do that, you can come here as well and spin the wheel to try and win something, right? Connect your Toobit account, and I won $10. Wonderful. So that auto-credits into my account. So if you want to try to win something, I found Duo. I think they even have a huge pool, a huge prize over here. Was it $20,000? Unbelievable. You can actually win a $20,000 prize pool, which is unreal.

34:06 So use that link to be able to participate in that. And let's continue. So limit ordering is the one option, which is what we opted to scale it through a grid because it takes on less risk. Option number two to get long, right? What's option number two to get long and to not miss out? Now, the earliest I said would be if you start to close a daily candle above $78,766.

34:30 But that's a bit more risky. More ideally, it's this candle, $82,000. See a couple of green candles. Take out that level. Boom. Bob's your uncle, and bulls are back, and they're ready to send this thing to the moon. All right. $82,000 is the level. $82,000 is the better confirmation zone. So option number one, limit order trying to catch price as it's falling.

34:52 So that option number one is also grid ordering. It's the same thing. It's setting limit orders, and you're buying as price is going down. Option number two is the confirmation trade where you close above here. It means you're paying maybe a higher price, but you have better confirmation that this is a macro higher low, and we're ready to get sent. All right.

35:09 Option number three, this is the last option that I have for you guys today. If you have better options, let me know in the comments. Option number three is to take a time-based approach where you say that based on all the information we've looked at over the next, you know, three months, over the next three months. So you can basically go, and you can measure this out over a 90-day period, which is going to take you there.

35:33 There we go. It's going to take you over there over a 90-day period. So about there. You're going to simply just dollar cost average because history would suggest that following the midterms, you tend to get a sell-off, and you want to capture the average entry price within that sell-off, and then you expect that the next six months are going to be golden based on this data, right?

35:53 Then you just simply set a dollar cost average bot, or you just manually go, and you buy, buy, and therefore you're probably going to buy close to the bottom and get your average entry. And so you take the available capital, maybe you wanted to put in $100,000 over here into the Bitcoin trade. Instead, you take $100,000, you divide it by 90 days, and you just simply take that number every day, and you dollar cost average, right?

36:18 If price does that, you're going to get your average entry. What happens if price doesn't do that? You have your $100,000, price moves up, gets back above $82,000. That equals option number two. You've been DCAing. Maybe it's like two weeks from now, you get above 82K, and you have only dollar cost averaged, like maybe dollar cost averaged 10K. So you have 90K left.

36:40 That's fine. Take the 90K, and then you take option number two with the rest of the money. All right. Not financial advice. You do you. Whatever makes you happy. It's your money. But let's go back to the poll results and quickly see the tally of you. So now it's shifted, right? We got a 65% chance. My speech was obviously convincingly bullish to get a 5% switch over here.

37:03 65% believe this is the macro higher low. 35% believe it's not. What do I think? Guys, I don't know. Remember, I don't know. I don't have a crystal ball. It's all about probabilities. The probabilities were that if price comes in between the 200 MA and EMA, this is all a buy zone down to the bottom over here with a reset in the fear and greed dropping from what was greed into fear and almost, almost tagging extreme fear, which is the red, right?

37:33 Going from orange to red. Look at that. So close, like on the cusp of repositioning over there. So the other thing we're looking at is the RSI. All right. If the RSI can break this trend, we got the less aggressive trend in yellow, and then we got the other one also in yellow, but I'm going to change that now. We'll make this one in, let's do it in, we have too many oranges, let's do it in pink, and we'll make it a bit bigger.

37:57 All right, so if you can start to break this with the RSI. You've got a lot of resistance, right? Just like a normal chart, you've got a lot of resistance. You've got the downtrend resistance of the RSI, and then above that, you've got your 50% level, which is your mid-range. It's also resistance. This was your previous support that failed. So, my thought process, I don't want to use the word advice.

38:20 I've heard you can get arrested for that. My thought process is that people will start to get very bullish when you move into this environment. But you want to wait for that confirmation because this could easily reject and go down one more time. But we have a plan for that. If that happens, the grids will buy, buy all the way down on that rejection.

38:45 The alternative is if prices at $82,000 and the RSI smashes this, throws back and holds this as support, then let's use a circle. That was a bear trap. Boom. That was a bear trap, right? And the bulls are back. So this is what we're waiting for. That's the plan of action, right? I hope that helps. That is the plan of action. All right. So liquidity, where's the liquidity?

39:09 The strongest on the upside, which is where we are journeying to right now in the short term, right? We're journeying towards that. It's about $16,078,200. We're going to be very close to hitting it. Let's look at the weekly over there, what's going on in the weekly. Let's quickly do a reset. If you get value from this, guys, do me a favor and smash the like button.

39:26 The weekly is also building up. This is huge, right? This is a lot. This is a significant amount. We don't often see like overwhelmingly higher above 100 million in terms of liquidity at 82.5. That's pretty interesting, right? 82.5. Why is it interesting? Because that would recover the breakdown area. Remember, there's the price label. There's the price label.

39:48 81,927. So round it up, call it 82. It means if you come for that liquidity, because that's where all the stop losses are, because that was the breakdown area where things really started to go south. And therefore, logically, people have put their stop losses over there. Right. So if price is going to tag that level, watch for how the close happens, because it could be a liquidity grab.

40:10 If it liquidity, if it spikes up over here as a liquidity grab and immediately reacts down, that's still bearish, even though you hit that level. This is why I emphasize the importance of the daily closes. Okay, so it needs to come up over here into the zone. You've already taken the low liquidity. This is also quite a lot. Look at that. 126. So it's level to level.

40:28 Look at the range over here, the range high, the range low. You hit the range low, swept that level, and you ran it up. Personally, I really wanted to see a bit more of a sweep. Where's this chart over here? I don't actually have it on this one. It might be on this one. Let's just quickly see over here. Here it is. This is the chart, right? I was really hoping for a bit more of a sweep.

40:48 I thought this would be cleaner, and it could still happen. This would be a cleaner sweep. Boom. Just below that orange line. You know, take out these lows. Then that becomes a swing failure pattern and you can trade it back into the trading range. Alrighty. Yes, Jason says we swept Monday low. Yes, absolutely. We've swept Monday low. So there's your range trade on a super low time frame if you are trading that low time frame.

41:11 So if you're trading that low time frame, remember the Coinbase competition has started, right? This is a big price for $2 million up for grabs. If you want to join, join with me. I'm going to be trading this thing as well. I don't know if I'm going to be able to take all the trades on YouTube, but I'll actively be looking for trades. Let's just let that refresh over there.

41:30 So I've joined the competition. I'm already in on the competition. If you're not, use this link. Use this link to sign up. Only the people that have used that link are actually able to join. It is specific to you guys. So that activates your rewards campaign as well. Remember, 80% off of your trading fees on spot trading and you get a $275 bonus. And then this is the competition link.

41:52 So you first sign up over here, then you come through, join the competition and this is where we'll be trading. So it has begun. You have 21 days and 16 hours left to win. All right. First and foremost, let's do our daily buy over here on Coinbase. All right. So click in the order book, put in $100, as simple as that. And boom, there's our order. It's through and we've bought some more Bitcoin.

42:16 All right. And then we've also connected this to Claude. If you remember correctly, we went to the agent section. You can connect this to ChatGPT, et cetera. And then you can ask it about your positions, which is very useful. So you can go and ask, what is my average entry price? How far away is my stop loss? How much money do I need to put on to avoid liquidation?

42:32 Are you sure my stop loss is in? I can't remember if I put it in. You can ask all these questions, which is useful because sometimes people don't want to have their Coinbase on a mobile app. Maybe, for example, when you're going out, they just want it at home on their computer for safety reasons. And now you can actually go through Claude or ChatGPT or Perplexity or whatever is your favorite AI to use over there for Coinbase.

42:56 All right. Amazing. Moon phases. What about the moon phases? Good point. I haven't looked at the moon phases, not for a while. So let's actually see what's going on in the moon phases over here. We had a Bull Moon which dismally failed. You know, I mean, it's not over yet. If you get a bit of a bounce over here, it could still work out. But the Bull Moon arrived over here and it was pretty much just down only.

43:19 So in terms of the moon phases, you have, we're 10 days in, you've got five days left and then you're going into a bear moon. What that means, if you're trading the moons, what that means is that any bounce over here should be treated. As a lower high, right? Into the next moon phase. That's if you're going to interpret it like that. But remember, there's an order of significance or sequencing when it comes to how you're trading the market, right?

43:42 There's certain metrics that mean more than other metrics and have higher priority in terms of the priority list. And the moon phases are not up there, all right? They're not near the top. Price action comes number one, trend. Higher highs, higher lows, lower highs, lower lows, strong horizontals. Those are the top of the list. That should be your main priority.

44:03 All right. Amazing, amazing. Okay. Let me know in the comments, guys, what else you guys want to have a look at. We've had a long stream over here, pretty in-depth. I really wanted to save some time for altcoins, but I'm not even sure that we can make it, right? We've been through so much stuff over here today, and I don't want to overwhelm you, but let's have a look over here at what's happening on ETH.

44:25 So ETH, potential bounce zone. Let's clean this up a bit. Remove that. Okay, let's have a look at ETH. All right, decent, very decent over there. Remember, if ETH takes out 2,388, the theory is exactly the same of what I just explained regarding Bitcoin. It was basically scaling into orders within the pink zone all the way coming down to the bottom because if you take out this low, ETH is pretty cooked, right?

44:53 If you took out like just below 1900, it wouldn't be looking good. So you'd want to buy and capture that on the way down. Of course, it didn't go all the way down. That's option number one. Option number two is you get long on the breakout if you take out that candle at about 2,388. Option number three is the same as Bitcoin's option number three, which is your dollar cost average over the next 8 to 12 weeks.

45:18 All right, you take whatever capital you were wanting to allocate into a manual trade and you split it up and you just dollar cost average every day over the coming weeks. All right, let's have a look. Sure, tankers. These tankers are something we haven't looked at for a long time, a little bit unconventional for the masses, but let's see what's going on on these tankers.

45:36 They're still extremely strong. You know, sure, could this be putting in near top possibly? But if you look at the weeklies, which we're on, when in doubt, zoom out. It really helps to get a bit of perspective. Like, you know, I would say the tankers, really it falls apart over there, but if you want a bit of a tighter stop, that can hold about 48. 48 is going to be significant.

45:57 So there's your daily first lower high potentially forming. But there, I guess that's 48 is exactly where that means you create a new swing low over there. So weeklies, weeklies still look strong. TNK is getting a little bit heavy compared to FRO, which looks better, to be honest. And STNG is still fine as well. You're at the breakout level. This is a large, huge cup and handle, right?

46:22 Big cup and handle formation over here. You know, if you take out that low, 78, maybe it's going to go much deeper. These are spot trades only, by the way, because these trades take months to play out, so you're going to get absolutely rinsed if you have to pay leverage fees or funding rates or things like that. All right. Amazing, amazing. What else?

46:44 What else do we have today, guys? What else do we have today? All right. Looking for the top altcoin trade. Yeah, tough. The top altcoin trade. Let's quickly have a look at Solana. I know how Solana doing. You know, this is a pretty, this could create a pretty decent reclaim of the range, right? So if you start to see Solana recapturing some of these key levels, that's a possibility of a deviation to trade it back towards the highs.

47:13 But yeah, this thing's been smashed and probably a bounce is due. You know, you're talking about 28% down. So how high could these things bounce? You know, very high. This can go to 105, possibly even to 115. Those are big moves. So if you're trying to play the mean reversion, the way that I'd look at it is basically today's candle is going to be quite significant.

47:36 And then I just use the low timeframe to try and line that trade up. So any little pullback that occurs later today or over the course of tomorrow, you can attempt to get long. It's dangerous because it's still catching a falling knife. But if you get it right and you can manage your risk very quickly without really taking on risk, right? Because you're buying as price is moving in your favor and you're just trailing that stop loss until it gets to break even and then you have a free hit.

48:01 If it mean reverts and it bounces aggressively, you'll be in the money. This trade can easily go like that. It's a 20%, 30% move. All right. Pump is the top morning trade, you guys say. Let's have a look at pump. Let's go into the daily. Yeah, I don't know what time frame you're looking at it on. Maybe, maybe look the whole market. If the majors bounce, pretty much everything will bounce.

48:33 But just be careful. Don't get trapped, right? Don't get trapped. You are coming directly into resistance. You know, if this candle closes green, it starts to look decent for continuation. But this is resistance 918 EMA. We literally compress like a symmetrical triangle between key support and resistance now. So there's work to be done. It's a dangerous zone over here to oversize.

49:01 And it would have just been so much cleaner if you could just sweep this out. All right. This over here. We wicked into it, but you didn't sweep it out. Sweeping it out would be dropping below the yellow box, a little bit deeper. All right. Look, guys, one of the benefits as well of these trading competitions, by the way, is you can keep your tools sharp, right?

49:28 In these environments, trading competitions is not to say that, you know, what's your probability of winning it? Well, only a couple of people will take prize money home. But the benefit of it for the average person is that it forces you to look for trades. So if you're actively looking for trades, you sharpen when it comes to market analysis and understanding what's coming next.

49:50 All right. I will catch all of you guys on the next one. I hope everyone has a wonderful day wherever you guys are based in the world. Good luck for, you know, whatever is your favorite party, all the voters out there. I know that even in my home country, they're voting today. So it seems like a lot of elections all around the world. And I'll see you guys tomorrow. Cheers.