The Brutal Truth about The Crypto Recovery! (And What's Coming) Transcript, AI Summary & Key Points

00:00 Okay, we're going to talk about the crypto correction again. We wanted to talk about it yesterday. Unfortunately, technology kind of let us down. But I think the fact remains that, yes, we're in a correction. And if we are in a correction, it's pretty simple to work out where we're going to go and how low we're going to go. That's pretty basic stuff.

00:17 And I'll show you how basic it is. In fact, spoiler alert, if we are in a correction, we're about 45% of the way in the correction. And I'll show you exactly the levels we actually get to. But there's another school of thought. And the other school of thought is that this entire run-up was just a dead cat bounce, which means that it was a bounce that was designed to suck us in and to drop us down.

00:38 Pretty much like these bounces over here, they call this a dead cat bounce, it goes up from here, you think it's going to go high and you get dropped again, you think it's going to go high and you're going to get dropped again. There is a school of people that basically believe that this entire run-up here was a dead cat bounce, and if that's true, then the next move actually takes you below $58,000, right?

00:58 Or it actually takes you to, here, you can kind of see it here, takes you to the realized price, which is about $53,000. Now, we're going to look at the merits of both arguments here. It's clear that we are in a correction. The question is, though, where does this correction end? Is it a typical bull market correction? Or is this a dead cat bounce? And then that's taking us to kind of lower lows.

01:21 So that's what we're going to be talking about today. Also, I'll show you the headwinds that can actually fundamentally drive the correction, even though you don't really need fundamentals to drive a correction. I'll show you the headwinds that can actually drive a correction. So I'm back. I tried to be here yesterday, but the YouTube gods just wouldn't let us do a show.

01:37 We did a show and then the show dropped and then we tried to do the show again and then the show didn't happen. So I'm back today. Good to see you guys. Good to see everybody. Where is the chat? Where is everyone? Maybe they think I'm still aware because we didn't have a show yesterday. Help me by hitting the like button. That'll really get the momentum back here.

01:56 Smash a like. Let's see you guys in the thing. Charles, I see you in the comment. William, I see you in the comment. Hustle, I see you in the comment. I see all you guys in the comment. Anyway, let's talk about bullish mics here. Nibor is here, I see you, Nibor 999, I see you, I see all of you guys in the chat, I acknowledge you guys in the chat every single day.

02:20 Let's talk about the potential scenarios here specifically, let's talk about the fact if we're in a correction. it's pretty simple, right? And when I say it's pretty simple, it's a normal bull market correction. We have them every single cycle. We had in 2017, we had 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 corrections. In 2021, we had 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 corrections. And in 2024, 2025, we had another 6 corrections.

02:46 So in a bull market, you will get corrections. If you want to know what these corrections basically look like, pretty much in the first cycle, they were quite pronounced. We would get about a 34% correction on average. In 2021, you can see that the corrections became less pronounced. And so that was 29%. 2024, that was 23%, right? So if you take all those numbers, you say, okay, well, in the first cycle, it was an average of 34%.

03:12 In the second cycle, 29%. In the third cycle, 23%. You can kind of say that we should expect an 18% correction this time around. We can expect the corrections to be shallower. If we were to get an 18% correction this time, so you pretty much take this level over here, and you go down 18%. Sorry, you take from the top. Sorry, let's just take from the top.

03:33 Top. We've got a big show today with lots of alpha, 18%. That would take us down to about $71,000, right? So that would mean that it would take us down to about $71,000 if this theory around corrections actually held. Now, let's talk about the correction thesis first, right? So, the correction thesis, which is, by the way, that's my thesis. I don't believe that this is a dead cat bounce.

03:59 And I'll show you at the end where I debunk the difference between a dead cat bounce and people that actually said there is a dead cat bounce. I mean, if we talk about this correction, we still haven't hit the fear stage of the correction. We're still in neutral. We haven't actually got anywhere near fear in this correction. So I don't believe that we're anywhere near.

04:21 I think this is more towards the beginning. That's why I say it's like 45% or 35% into the correction. The real correction hasn't actually even started yet. Why? Because people aren't scared yet. I am seeing some signs that people are getting scared, but generally we're in about neutral territory. Now, there is the fear and greed index that actually shows that.

04:39 This is another indicator which is probably worth looking at. It's called the Unified Sentiment Index, which is only now back in negative territory. It says the index is currently sitting at 11, signaling that extreme greed phase is behind us and pessimism is starting to settle in across the market. Now, remember that in a correction, you want to see the behavior change.

04:59 And a behavior change means that people must go from exuberance to actual real, real fear. Now, the question is there real fear in the markets? Now, there isn't. People are still talking about buying the dip. People are still in the trenches. That's not the fear that I expect to see in a correction. I am seeing signs that are starting to creep in. I am seeing people starting to get complacent.

05:21 I am seeing people starting to get worried. So Arthur Hayes came out on the weekend. He is dumping his positions, dumping his ETH, dumping his Ethena, dumping his union, other rubbish coins. I think we're going to go down to go up. It looks a bit dicey out there in the macro and geopolitical land. So I'm going to sit on the sidelines and wait for a clear signal.

05:37 Now, in the old days, we would panic when Arthur Hayes actually started selling. But we're not panicking. The reason we're not panicking is because we kind of know that he hasn't called it right many, many, many times. In fact, more times he's called it wrong than actually called it right. He's a very good thinker, but I think his emotions actually get the better of him when it actually comes to trading.

05:58 I mean, I don't know if you remember, but when the Zcash hack happened, he was one of the first hands to basically let go of his Zcash. So Arthur Hayes, negative around Bitcoin. This is one that I, this is like one that I love. It's Jason from Jason Calacanis from the All In Party says, a brutal year for Bitcoin just getting started. Give me three minutes and explain to you why you should dump it now.

06:20 Outflow from the ETFs, our signal and will continue. We'll test the 57 low again in the next 12 months. Why? Because there's far more dynamic places to put your money that create much more value. Why put your resources into a dead network that offers nothing beyond the store of value? What's the point of Bitcoin if Bitcoin's Ponzi scheme nature has gone away, the viral nature of Bitcoin was once its power.

06:42 If you didn't own it, you were mocked. Now, completely reasonable. Heck, smarter to ignore Bitcoin and to place other bets. No one is trying to convince people to buy Bitcoin anymore and the memes and NFTs are gone. No one is saying Bitcoin can change the world because it won't and because AI has. And he says, just sell and shift from Bitcoin to super intelligence because one provides very little to no value and the other one provides unlimited upsides.

07:06 This is the same person who famously said, if you're in crypto, pivot to AI just before the last bull run, a big run. So, again, he's not really one to go by and actually tested his things. I said, if you follow Jason's previous Bitcoin calls, you'll know why this makes me super bullish. And I said, Grock, just tell me why. He said, Jason called it to zero with 60 to 70% odds near 3,700 in 2018 and zero to 500 in 2019.

07:37 It later hit six figures. His early buyers at 100, 200, past dump calls, missed hard. So this one reads like a classic contrarian feel for the bulls. To me, I don't trust Jason Calacanis when it comes to Bitcoin. I think that every time he has called it, as long as I've been following him, he's definitely called it wrong. So I'm not really paying attention.

07:54 Then there was Chamath. Now, Chamath was an early Bitcoin bull, but I don't know if you guys heard this on the weekend. Review on crypto, given, you know, the meteoric rise of superintelligence here. Are we safe or are we not? I think it's capped. I think that traditional crypto lacks the fungibility to have all forms of buyers. The buying pool is really retail, then institutionals, and then central banks.

08:19 And retail lacks the fungibility to be owned by central banks. So it's capped from that perspective. Then it's capped because there are enough leaks around who owns what that now creates security risks. I think France being the best example where I think the French government forced publication of who owned what crypto assets, and you had just a complete flurry of kidnappings and all kinds of really bad things.

08:44 And then the third is around AI, where if you believe that, you know, recursive self-improvement is pointed towards, you know, cryptographic hacks, the most obvious thing to point it to would be to Satoshi's wallet and, you know, to break SHA-256 and just kind of drain the wallet and then go short and then tell people that you did it. So then you'd make the money twice.

09:08 All those things, I think, are realistic reasons why it's capped and there's an upper bound. And so it's incumbent on these efforts to migrate to quantum secure, quantum resistant cryptographic mechanisms, which, as you can see in the Bitcoin community, is basically impossible because it's a bunch of people that can't even agree where to meet, let alone.

09:35 Let alone, you know, at what time the meeting starts at. So I think crypto is a bit lost in the woods here. So do you think, so that is what he says about crypto. And I want to remind you now, with every correction, this is something that I really need you guys to focus on. No one wants to admit this, but every Bitcoin chart was built by people like you quitting.

09:54 So which one are you? Are you the holder who survived it or are you the liquidity that gets the next cycle? Every single correction is supposed to feel scary. It's supposed to try and scare you away. As the sentiment gets worse, that is when more and more people leave. And the people that survive are the ones that actually end up making money. That's how you shake out all of this.

10:12 So as the price goes down, as price starts to go down, we will start to see more and more negativity because that's what happens. Price goes down and then people become negative. When the price goes down and people become negative, the ones that can hold on even longer because they can see through the fundamentals, that's what we call the diamond hands.

10:30 Those are the ones that actually end up making money. Those that land up dumping are the ones that land up dumping here in the yellow lines over here and they leave the meat for the people that landed up holding. So you've got to decide in the crypto correction, who are you in this crypto correction? Are you this person that is going to be the paper hands or are you the person who's going to be the diamond hands and actually get rewarded for it?

10:56 Because the one thing that I can tell you is we're not at fear yet and we need to get to fear. And the only way for us to get to fear is to get more of these, more people telling us, more smart people telling us that we're making a mistake. They've said this for many, many years. So it's not like every correction you hear are smart people telling you why this is not a good idea.

11:17 Jamie Dimon did it for a long period of time. Lots of people did it for a long period of time. Ultimately, those that survived actually landed up making money, right? Now, if this is the correction, and I believe it is a correction, you can see over here that the exuberance is starting, this is the altcoin interest, altcoin open interest versus Bitcoin open interest chart.

11:36 You can see that the exuberance is starting to cool down. Remember that I've been looking at this chart and saying, whenever the altcoin open interest goes above the Bitcoin open interest, it means that people are too bullish and they're too much all in on the altcoins. Then we get that and then we get a correction. And we went up there again and now we're starting to see that it's starting to come down and to correct, but it's not where we want it to be yet, right?

12:00 So fear and greed, not where we wanted it to be yet. The altcoin versus Bitcoin open interest, not where we want it to be yet, right? The price actually also isn't where we want it to be yet. So in terms of a correction, there's like a couple of levels that we need to respect if there's a correction. So, number one, over here, the first level would be the 50-week moving average.

12:22 Now, the reason why I said this is a key level is that in every other bull market, once we've gone above the 50-week moving average, which is this line over here, we don't actually go below it. So, we're weak below it here and here, but we don't actually go below it until the end of the cycle. So again here we went above. Now granted we didn't have as much momentum but if you look at it we did spend a long time in above there.

12:47 I think we spent five weekly closes above the 50-week moving average. I mean, we are above the 50-week moving average and I would ideally want us to hold the 50-week moving average, but I think that's optimistic because if I look at the disconnect between where we are now and getting to a point where we are actually especially fearful so that the correction can actually be over, I don't think we're anywhere near it yet.

13:09 In a correction, you want to go below here. You want to go into the red. You want to go into the red over here. And I don't believe that going below, just going from 80 to 75,000 is going to get us to the fear and greed. So I've got to say that in this cycle, I wouldn't be surprised if we actually go below the 50-week moving average. It would be unusual, but I mean, we have to call the odds here.

13:33 Then the next level for me, the next interesting level for me comes the bull market support bands. And here is actually where I think we're going to land. up somewhere at around $72,000. Why do I say that? Because for me, I'm taking price and sentiment and I'm trying to correlate price and sentiment. At what point is the price and the sentiment going to align?

13:58 At what point is the price going to be somewhere where the sentiment is going to be in fear for enough time? Now, bear in mind that we're not really dropping fast enough. Last week we were at 50, then we were at 55, then we were at 50, 48. I wanted to get back to like the 20s. I want to get somewhere over here. So I said, okay, what is the price level that's going to take me there?

14:20 Realistically, I probably think it's the bull market support bands, which is at about 72,000. So if you ask me where this thing ends, and I was having this discussion with Sheldon earlier today, Sheldon's turned bullish. I was like, Sheldon, I'm scared if you, I mean, he must look at his charts and do whatever he wants to do. But I was like, Sheldon, look, I think you're going to get rinsed because I think that we need this correction to go.

14:43 So the two levels of interest for me, pretty much 50-week exponential moving average, 76,000. I don't think that's going to do the trick. Maybe it will. Maybe we get a bounce here. We respect this level and we get a bounce. That's a level of interest for me. And then after that, the bull market support bands, that's another level of interest for me.

15:01 The 200-week daily, yeah, I don't know if it's that relevant for me. There was a report that was actually published by Galaxy. It was sent to Galaxy customers. And I think they pretty much agree with the fact that this is a correction and this is not a dead cat bounce, right? The dead cat bounce would mean that we go below, below. And if we do go below, if you're in the school of a dead cat bounce, and I know Fefe is one of these people, it's never going to get a flush and it's going to go below 60.

15:31 I mean, I think generally he's not a very positive guy when it comes to trading or in his predictions, or he hasn't been up until now. But if you look here, you can see basically that the people that are calling for a dead cat bounce is the people that are saying we haven't put in the cycle low. And if we haven't put in the cycle low, in all the other cycles, the cycle low has been the realized price or under the realized price.

16:00 Now, that's the one level that we never hit in the cycle. So that would take us down to 53,663. That would take us to the realized price. But remember, in most cycles, we actually went below the realized price, right? So below the realized price, you see? And again, below the realized price over there, right? So this is the people that are saying that it's a dead cat bias.

16:23 Now, what data do they have on their side? Because you need to have data on your side. The first data that you need to have on your side is they're saying, look, this wasn't a real move that was powered by institutions. This was powered by retail investors. And they actually have got a lot of data to prove that. The biggest data point on that is what I call the Coinbase Premium Index.

16:43 And the Coinbase Premium Index tells you what buyers on Coinbase, what premium the buyers on Coinbase are willing to be paying for their coins. When they're willing to pay a premium, that shows that there's institutional demand. When they're not willing to pay a premium, it shows that there's no institutional demand. And they're saying, those guys saying, look, this move up was a low liquidity move that wasn't actually driven by institutions, right?

17:05 Also, those people will tell you that we never had a big breakout on this line. You see, usually when we get a breakout, it's a big and it's a powerful breakout. This time, there's no big breakout. And the argument will again come back to volume. So this is from Darkforce. Darkforce says they use Coinbase's professional index. And they're basically saying that the signal suggests that U.S.

17:24 institutions are selling significantly more than retail investors can buy in Binance. And that basically shows that this cycle or this move hasn't really been a real move. So they talk about light volume and basically this whole thing being around light volume. Now, let me tell you what I say to the people that believe that the cycle low isn't actually in.

17:53 And they are granted to believers. As I said, there are many out there. I know that because I've been following Fefe's stuff. I know that he's one of the people that believe that we're going to go down below and we're going to get rinsed. And I guess time will tell whether we're right, whether they're right, etc. The one other data point that they have on their side is usually Bitcoin crashes and puts in the low when the stock market actually corrects just before the midterms.

18:17 That's basically when Bitcoin actually corrects, right? Now, as it relates to the stock market, we'll talk about the stock market in a sec, but for now, that's the data points that we basically look at. So, now let me talk to you about why I think that those people are wrong or where I think those people are wrong. So the first thing is, from a time point of view, which in terms of the four-year cycle, we probably should have put in the low already.

18:38 So if you look at the Galaxy Report, somewhere in the Galaxy Report, I don't know if I can actually find it now, I technically believe that the bottom is in. They're talking about, they also speak about the 50-week moving average as the bottom. The four-year cycle is, you see, this is the chart basically. They talk about the four-year cycle and we have passed the part in the four-year cycle where we should have bottomed really.

19:03 So just from a plain, simple time point of view, we've passed that part. The second thing that I have here is that if this is a dead cat bounce, by the definition of a dead cat bounce is that you can't put in a higher high. And what we did, if we look at the chart, is we actually did put in a higher high. So if it was a dead cat bounce, the bounce probably would have ended here.

19:25 So you can see like here, when we went up, we never put in the higher high, right? And the same thing here, like we didn't put in a higher high above that, right? But here, we actually did put in a higher high. So from a technical point of view, I say, look, if it's a dead cat bounce, then technically we shouldn't have put in a higher high. We shouldn't.

19:44 The next test that we need to do now is to see if it puts in a lower low. So if it goes below the 57,995, then we go say, okay, those people were actually right, and then we go maybe to the realized price or even below the realized price. Again, I'm not in that school of thought. I think that that was invalidated when we put in a higher high, and I think that the next move that you want to see is you want to see a higher low, which basically comes to somewhere over there.

20:06 72,000 would be great. It would fit that chart pattern pretty well. The next data point is we've had five weekly closes above the 50-week moving average and we're still above it for a long time. And so to me, that's another bullish data point which we haven't generally had when we've had these bounces. Now, here's another data point. It says, bye-bye bear market, see you in a few years.

20:30 Historically, whenever Bitcoin printed multiple 10-day candles inside a red Gaussian channel, the bear market low was already in. It says the same setup is now appearing again. I don't make the rules. And again, this is just another indicator to show that we're in the Gaussian channel. When we've put in multiple 10-day candles inside the red Gaussian channel historically, that's been a signal that the bear market is over and we don't really go back under those levels.

20:53 So again, there are a lot of data points on either side. Another data point that you can look at is you can look at the RSIs. So the RSIs are, you can say, generally, when we go above 45 on the RSI, we generally continue to climb up. That's the yellow arrows. I'll show you the yellow arrows over here. And if you look at the rare times, very, very rarely when we get above 45, do we actually reject and basically go down.

21:14 Now, again, there are no hard and fast rules here. Time will tell us if we're right. We can compare it to all the historical scenarios. And then you've got to take a view. And if your view is correct, then you will be rewarded. And if your view is wrong, then you'll pay the price. Ultimately, my job is to bring you all the data and to tell you what I think.

21:35 So again, I think this is a correction. I don't think this is a dead cat bounce. I've shown you the reasons. I think this is actually a typical last leg down correction. And I actually think a last leg down when it comes to the midterm election year. So in the midterm election years, which is also the one year post year on the four-year halving cycle, you always get these corrections.

22:03 So you always get these corrections. Now, in terms of the corrections, some of them end before the election, and some of them end just after the election. So this one ended, here was the election, it ended after the election. This one ended before the election. This one ended before the election, right? So ultimately, on or around election day, midterm election day, which is, by the way, next week, I think it's next Tuesday or something like that.

22:29 It's next week. By that time, the correction is usually over. Now, you may say, well, that's kind of weird because the correction this time hasn't actually even started. And I agree with you. At surface level, you can kind of say, hold on, there's no real correction happening over here. The S&P is currently down 1.8% from the high. I would argue that there is a correction going on, but the correction is going on on AI stocks only, right?

22:56 So I would argue that if you looked at the correction, you'd say that, and I saw this piece of data over here, it says, the biggest rotation since 2009 is happening right now, the S&P 500 equal weight index is outperforming the cap weighted index by one of the widest margins on record. Investors are fleeing mega cap. So basically, there is a correction going on in the AI stocks.

23:18 If you look at the AI stocks, which were the stocks that actually drove the bull market, there is a massive correction. I mean, you can't tell me that there's no correction if you've been holding semiconductors or if you've been holding 68% down on CoreWeave and on Nebius, you are down also like 50%. So you can kind of say, hold on a second, like there is a big correction going on.

23:42 It's just, it's not reflecting in the S&P. Now, that is basically one argument, but ultimately, we do know that we have these midterm corrections. Now, let's talk about the midterms because the midterms actually happen next week. One of our researchers this morning came out and said, look, you know, the midterms is actually a big headwind. It's something that, you know, can actually cause the markets to fail.

24:05 Now, I don't think, I don't actually think that the midterms, I think the midterms can only be good for us. And I'll tell you why I think the midterms can only be good for us. I think right now, the market is basically written off Trump. I think right now the market is saying that the Republicans are going to lose both. So I look at polling markets and you look at the balance of power in the midterm elections and Democrat sweep, which is the Democrats winning the House and the Senate, right, is now at 66%.

24:35 So when you talk about the Democrats potentially winning the House and the Senate, now let's just agree that Democrats are bad for the markets. The probability of what the market is pricing in of a Democrat clean sweep is 66%, which means that if somehow the Democrats don't land up getting a clean sweep, then the market, then for the market, that's pretty much good news.

25:01 Right. So I think right now the market's pricing in the worst case scenario and the worst case scenario is like a Democrat clean sweep, which means that if we don't get a clean sweep, if we get a clean sweep, cool, the market says, you know what, we expected it, market goes down a little bit and we carry on business as normal. If we don't get a clean sweep and all of a sudden the Republicans win the House or the Senate or something, and I don't think they'll win a clean sweep here, then all of a sudden the market goes,

25:24 hold on a second, the Democrats didn't get the sweep, the party get started, right? midterms, right? Because the midterms are next week. And I would have expected something, I would have expected Trump to do something to change the sentiment. I don't know, end the war, do dividend checks like you spoke about before. Like, I would have expected this to happen, something like this, to happen this week.

26:01 And because our country is making so much money that only I can make this promise to you. And here is my promise. If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate, both of them, because of our economic, tremendous economic success, like in history we've never had anything like what's happening. But because of our tremendous strength and success economically, I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000.

26:44 I would have expected something from Trump. Bro, like the polls are telling you that you're not doing so well. Like do something. The elections are next week. Like do something, but nothing. So, I don't know, maybe he'll still put a rabbit out of hat. I did see this article today or this thing by Bull Theory. It says, "U.S. futures are surging after news that Iran's security chief met the Supreme Media to discuss ending the war."

27:06 Here we go again. The war's ended 947 trillion times. It just doesn't end. That's the only problem. I think that the thing that you need to keep your eyes on the prize is that after every single midterm election, no matter what, after every single midterm election, 12 months later, we are bullish and we are positive. And that's why you've got to just survive the next couple of weeks and the next couple of months.

27:33 That's it. You've got to survive the next couple of weeks, the next couple of months, get through the correction, get through the midterms. And then what you know is that in most cases after one month it's bullish, in most cases after X months it's bullish, in here, after six months it's always bullish and after 12 months it's always bullish. So that's out of 19 midterm elections.

27:56 That's from 1950, out of 19 midterm elections, that's the takeout. So ultimately, yes, there's always kind of uncertainty as to whether the Republicans or Democrats will win, but ultimately, after so many midterm elections, you just have to survive this, and then there's basically, as Nick says, light at the end of the tunnel, right? Yeah, that's generally what happens at the elections.

28:20 I don't know, speaking of light at the end of the tunnel and elections, I think we should probably spend a couple of minutes on the Brazilian election. So I'll tell you one more thing that I picked up, which is actually quite a lot of fun. I didn't do it on this account that you guys can see, but what you can do is you can actually trade countries' indices during elections while the markets are closed.

28:40 So I traded on another variational account, which is not a public account, and I landed up actually buying a whole lot of EWZ. EWZ is the perpetual, it's on Variational, it's the perpetual for the Brazilian stock market. Now, what happened here is we had the Brazilian elections, and I don't know if you guys follow Brazilian politics, but there were two big candidates.

29:03 There was Lula and Bolsonaro, basically. Lula has been in power for the last 20 years. I mean, he's known as someone who's extremely, extremely corrupt. He basically elected all the Supreme Court judges, et cetera. He's very, very much a socialist, and he basically won the election. And this is after everyone thought that Bolsonaro was going to win the election, right?

29:23 You can see that you had Bolsonaro basically pull ahead and it was almost like a sure thing. And then Lula basically went and won the election, right? And so the one thing that crypto allows you to do is actually to trade this. So while all the markets were closed, the Brazilian stock market was closed. I was here on Variational. I was actually trading this.

29:46 I landed up buying it about $32. So I didn't actually buy the bottom bottom, but I bought it $32 now. Again, I'm big time up on my trade. Again, these are just the things that you can do on a perps exchange. I've told you before, I use Variational. There's a code for you below. If you want to use it, you can trade these indices. Use the code OMNI RUN.

30:05 You get a 15% point kicker. Remember, they're going to do their airdrop in the next two months, and then they're going to be giving away a billion dollars worth of tokens in the next two months. When that happens, to farm, you're basically trading for free. You're not paying any fees and you're just getting these points. You get the points every Friday and you can actually buy and sell them every Friday as well.

30:24 But interestingly enough, like, so the interesting thing here is Bolsonaro was actually winning all the way until the end. And at the end, they basically changed the rule and they said that even after the ballot boxes were closed, they could carry on voting. And that's when Lula actually basically won. So, Lula won, and you've got to take your hat off to people in Brazil or anybody that would run against an existing government in a country like that because it feels to me like the elections get rigged, essentially, and

31:00 it happens every time. It's like the third or fourth time that it's basically happened. The elections basically get rigged. And then, if you're in the opposition, now remember, his father ran for president, and his father is now basically in prison, right? In Brazil. So, his father was the main opposition leader, he went to prison, now he, the Sniper is now running for president, and look what happened to him after he lost the elections, and, you know, threatened to contest it with the courts.

31:34 E quando eu estava saindo, a Polícia Federal do Lula estava na porta da casa dele e no meio da rua eu fui intimado a entregar os meus passaportes e também estou proibido de deixar o país. A decisão da Alexandre de Moraes se baseou numa fala do Eduardo de 23 de outubro que eu deveria deixar o país se eu perdesse a eleição. Eu nunca falei isso. Isso é motivo para tirar meu passaporte?

32:01 Isso é justiça? E mais, essa decisão foi tomada no domingo à noite, logo depois do anúncio do resultado da eleição. Pensa comigo, se eu tivesse ganhado as eleições, ia acontecer a mesma coisa? Flávio Bolsonaro eleito, essa PF ia estar do mesmo jeito, me intimando no meio da rua? Another big, massive, massive disincentive. Yeah, someone says, run for president in Brazil, not a chance.

32:45 Even though I love to speak Portuguese and learn how to speak Portuguese, definitely not going to run for Brazilian presidency, I'm too scared. I mean, what you can see is the people that wish Lula congratulations, like Zoran Mamdani wishes him, like, congratulations, like, Alex Soros, George Soros' son, congratulates him, right? Like, you can kind of see who this guy is, you know, like, Mamdani's congratulating him, Alex Torres is congratulating him, Elon Musk is saying, like, bro, the math doesn't add up, like, you

33:15 know, Trump, Bernie Sanders, of course, Bernie Sanders congratulating Tolula on his extraordinary re-election in Brazil. Trump thinking, you know, it looked like a terrible, like, it looked terrible. Do you have any comment on Bolsonaro's laws in Brazil? Any comment on that? Do you think the election was fair? Well, it looked terrible to me. I thought it was a terrible...

33:39 I didn't take sides, but it looked like another rigged election, frankly. Another rigged election. Gavin Newsom and Bernie Sanders are basically hogged. Gavin Newsom. So, like, you're kind of like, whose side... Let me know in the chat, whose side are you actually on? Are you like Gavin Newsom, Zoran Rondani's side, or are you on the other side? I'm just keen to know, like, who I'm talking to in the chat here.

34:00 So let's talk about some other things. It's quite a long show today because we missed yesterday, but I think there's so much going on that it's actually worth talking about. So we did say that there actually may be a correction happening. It's just not reflected in the broader index. There's an AI correction that's basically happening. It's been going on for a while.

34:16 You saw CoreWeave. I just use these as you can actually even use the VanEck semiconductor index. You can see that in the KOSPI, which is largely reliant on Hynix and Samsung, You can basically see that that's printed ahead and shoulders, which is quite a scary pattern, right? So there is a big rotation basically going on. The one thing that we did see yesterday is that Anthropic actually came out with the S1.

34:42 Now, the S1 is the filing before you go to IPO, right? And there's a lot of things that actually are worth talking about when it comes to Anthropic. The first thing is their revenue was $16.3 billion. There was a net loss of $80 billion, but that's not a real net loss. It's an accounting loss. We'll talk about that in a second. It expects to spend up to $120 billion with SpaceX and NVIDIA for compute.

35:09 It expects to spend $114 billion with Google, and revenue growth rate may not be sustainable, may decrease. Okay, we know all this. I want to show you the positive sign of this, right? So the positive sign is that they've got $112 billion in cash and $19 billion worth of short-term investment. So they've got a lot of cash, right? In terms of the loss is $72 billion.

35:34 Sorry, it's $80 billion, of which $72 billion is an accounting change, right? So the operating loss was much, much smaller than that. And they're spending a lot of money on compute, right? So when you talk about the AI bubble collapsing, these guys have committed to spend a lot of money on compute and it looks like they will be able to do it. A lot of people are much smarter than me.

35:54 They've got a path to profitability. They've got a path to net recurring revenue, et cetera. So it seems like it's pretty bullish, although there are naysayers. The naysayers basically say, look, when Anthropic comes on, it's going to suck money out of the markets. I don't know, if you look at the performance since the SpaceX IPO, Bitcoin's actually just performed really well.

36:20 So, I mean, yeah, not only that, the SpaceX IPO was also very good for Hyperliquid, right? And so maybe the Anthropic IPO will also be good for Hyperliquid because it brings, you can actually trade Anthropic at a $1.89 trillion valuation, that's $1.88 trillion on Hyperliquid. I think you can actually trade it on Variational as well. Let's actually see here.

36:40 So the code would be ANT, Anthropic, A-N-T. Anthropic, yeah, you can actually trade it here on Variational in points at 1877. So if you, like, to me, this would probably be a short, but I'm not an expert on this. I think coming in at a $2 trillion valuation is really, really high. But who knows? Let's see basically how this plays out. But you can trade it on Variational.

37:02 You can trade Anthropic shares on Hyperliquid, which means that it's actually really good for crypto because it gives people things to trade, right? When you've got things to trade, it's quite good. What else? It is quite a big week. There's a lot of earnings this week. There's the, there's, oh my God, tomorrow, hardest. Tomorrow we've got FOMC, bro.

37:23 You know, I mean, I want to go live for FOMC, but on the other hand, I kind of know that this guy's not raising rates tomorrow. We know he's not raising rates. There's a 90% chance of not raising rates. And he doesn't say much. So the FOMCs aren't really as much fun as they used to be. fun when they used to talk. Warsh doesn't talk, bro. We come here, we sit here, it's me and you.

37:46 And then Warsh doesn't say anything. He's like, I'm not saying anything. I'm going to wait for data. I'm not giving you data, bro. I'm not saying anything. Yeah, I mean, yeah. So tomorrow we've got that. We've got PCE later this week. I think it's Wednesday or Thursday there's PCE data. That's Thursday there's PCE data. Yeah, lots of results. What else?

38:09 What else is it? Altcoins. Let's look at the altcoins. I mean, even though, again, we're not buying anything. One of the biggest things when you know there's going to be a correction is just to sit on your hands and not buy anything. That's where I'm at. I'm sitting on my hands and not buying anything. I keep watching my watchlist. I see Aerodrome's doing really well because they've now increased their liquidity because they merged with Velodrome.

38:28 I see Backpack doing really, really well in terms of it's now become the lead in Spot DEX volume. VVV growing in terms of daily revenue. So all our altcoins are amazing, amazing. All our altcoins. Cruising, I'm not, you know, I'm still keeping an eye on them. Even Stonk, which I took a small position in, is gaining share in terms of the tokenized, the tokenized launchpad revenue.

38:59 I am watching this mask, not buying it yet. I was going to buy it here, but I just think it's going to break down below this line when the correction. So, the biggest thing, the biggest, biggest thing is just to sit on your hands. When you know the market's coming down, how do you just sit on your hands? That's the hardest thing. That's what I'm trying to find out now.

39:18 What else? A couple of things. I was watching wildlife videos before you guys. Do you see how cool the hat that Kalshi gave me is? Have you seen this? Let me show you. You've seen this cap? Let me actually make this bigger so you can see it. Trade bigger, bro. Yeah, trade bigger. But only if you're in America. If you're in the US and you want to trade regulated perps.

39:52 Oops. Then go to Kalshi. Hold on, let me. Then go to Kalshi and you can stand a chance to win. They've given away like $3,000 of the $5,000. So open an account. You can stand a chance to win. They've given away like $3,000 of the $5,000. So open an account. Yeah, they won't give us the list of people because, you know, they're very touchy about like GDPR and all that crap.

40:19 Yes, and you also get a $25 bonus when you trade $50. So that's a good deal for Kalshi. I want to show you something really freaking cool. I know a lot of you haven't done this yet, but basically, if you connect your account, so you connect your account, and we monitor how much volume you're actually trading, right? So we monitor how much volume you're actually trading.

40:41 And so you can link any account, Bybit. I'll change it today that you can link multiple accounts, right? So you can link, unlink, link. And then you get spins based on the volume that you're actually trading if you're using a banter link. So basically it knows what the account number is and it basically knows how many spins you have based on your volume.

41:02 And then you can just carry on spinning. Now, what do you win? You can win. I've just got a $10 futures bonus. Let me spin again. Maybe I'll win an iPhone. Another $10. See, so like you can just keep spinning and winning. Really, all you've got to do is connect your exchange here. You've got to connect your exchange here. And you can connect multiple exchanges.

41:21 I'll fix that today. So just if you've signed up with a banter link, just go and do it and just spin. You can win the iPhone duo over here. Yeah. Yeah. And if you haven't signed up, just sign up with a banter link. There's a whole lot of banter links below. And then every time you trade, this is going to, we're going to keep doing this. So like that you can win as you trade, you can win, Like it's awesome, awesome.

41:50 See, let's just see, no one. See, but I've got like steady, because I trade a lot of volume, I've got lots of spins, right? Okay, so you guys can go and do that. Sign up with your exchanges, go link your exchanges. Cool, I will see you guys again tomorrow. Until tomorrow, if I'm Cedar. Until then, trade well, my friends.