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The Real Reason Crypto Is Crashing... Transcript, AI Summary & Key Points

Altcoin Daily · 6 days ago · Science & Technology · 12:40 · EN-US

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Answer

The real reason for the crash is the midterm shift to Democrats controlling Congress, which sparked fear of an AI slowdown — more barriers for data centers and regulation delaying AI progress — triggering a chip and AI stock selloff. Crypto's added weakness is just spillover, but it has already washed out its leverage and sellers over 12+ months, so it shows more strength than stocks.

AI Summary

A $3.7 trillion stock market bloodbath on Black Thursday, driven by an AI/chip selloff after the US midterms put Democrats in charge of Congress and raised fears of AI regulation slowing data centers and AI progress. Crypto lost $140 billion but is down less than the NASDAQ despite being a 10x-50x smaller industry, showing relative strength because crypto already flushed its sellers and leverage over 12+ months of decline. Every midterm selloff in history rewarded investors who stayed: drops ranged 9%-33% (average ~16.4%), while the average rebound 12 months after the bottom was ~30% — 10 for 10 higher a year after the low. The VIX pump is the fifth largest in stock market history, up 65% on the day, and most such spikes historically aligned with buying opportunities. Coins with improving fundamentals highlighted: Injective (NASDAQ approved the first-ever INJ staked ETF, ticker INJC, targeting 90% staking of US institutional holdings), Bittensor's decentralized AI ecosystem (subnets like Liam/subnet 51 and NG/subnet 53 offering compute and inference at a fraction of CoreWeave's cost), and Solana (USDC stablecoin support live in Samsung Wallet across 82 million compatible Galaxy devices).

Key Points

  • Black Thursday: over $3.7 trillion wiped out from global stock markets ($3+ trillion in the US), with billions lost in Korean, Taiwanese, and Japanese markets; crypto lost $140 billion and erased the prior day's gains
  • Crypto is down less than the NASDAQ despite being a 10x-50x smaller industry, showing the most strength of any market
  • Midterm selloff explanation: Democrats now control Congress, and investors fear an AI slowdown — barriers for data centers and regulation delaying AI progress
  • Every midterm selloff paid investors who stayed: drops ranged from 9% to 33% (average ~16.4%), the average rebound 12 months later was ~30%, and 10 for 10 markets were higher a year after the low
  • VIX is at the fifth largest pump in stock market history, up 65% on the day — higher than the April '25 liberation day tariff crash and the early-2021 meme stock squeeze; most such spikes aligned with buying opportunities
  • Crypto's relative strength: it declined for 12+ months and hit bottom a month or two ago with no sellers left, while traditional markets stayed near all-time highs and still carry leverage and forced sellers to flush
  • NASDAQ officially approved the first-ever Injective staked ETF (ticker INJC), targeting staking 90% of its US institutional holdings; Canary Capital's Stephen McClurg called Injective a fantastic, well-capitalized team building real things and focused on Wall Street integration
  • Injective is thought of as a smaller or newer Solana due to its very small market cap; coins without an institutional bid lack hope for this cycle since it's an institutional cycle
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Transcript

Searchable transcript of The Real Reason Crypto Is Crashing... — Altcoin Daily (12:40). Search for a phrase, then click its timestamp to jump straight to that moment in the video.

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00:00 Something very odd is happening in global markets and I want to understand why. >> All right, a huge swing on Wall Street this morning. Yesterday's gains wiped out by a huge chip and AI stock selloff. This morning, the Dow down sharply. The tech heavy NASDAQ seeing an even sharper decline. >> What is the real reason markets are crashing? The real reason crypto is crashing.

00:20 And are there any coins worth picking up in the dip because it's a sale? >> You know, I really pay attention at 2% at 4%. I'm like, okay, that's not good. Black Thursday is here. Over 3.7 trillion have been wiped out from the global stock market today. Over three trillion in the US, billions and billions and billions in the Korean, Taiwanese, and Japanese stock markets.

00:44 And along with this, the crypto market has wiped out 140 billion and has fully erased yesterday's gains. But here's what's interesting for crypto. Despite being a 10x to 50x smaller industry, crypto is down even less than the NASDAQ. So, as global markets are tanking, of course, crypto is going to tank a little bit, too. But crypto and Bitcoin are showing the most strength, huh?

01:12 Now, why are global markets tanking, led by the US stock market? It's because we just had midterms, a change up in the a new crop of lawmakers, and now that we have Democrats in charge of Congress, people are scared of an AI slowdown, meaning putting up more barriers for data centers, delaying AI progress with regulation is the fear is the fear. But let's just get some perspective.

01:36 This is why you subscribe to Altcoin Daily. It is so clear. It is so clear. every midterm sell-off paid investors who stayed. So you can look back at every midterm election, either happened a little bit before or a little bit after, but there's always a sell-off because there's always change in the midterms. It doesn't matter the narrative. There's always a narrative.

01:59 But even with the S&P 500's worst midterm year drop, this is what happened over the 12 months after the bottom. And the average rebound was nearly twice the size of the average decline. So here's what this chart is showing. And and by the way, past performance does not guarantee future performance, but history often rhymes. And this this pattern is pretty clear.

02:24 We can see the midterm election years of the 1980s, 1990, 1994, 1998, all the way to 2002. And there was drops anywhere from 9% to as much as 33%. The average is this dotted line right here. Looks like around 16%. So honestly, we could drop a little more and that'd be normal. Oh yeah, the average draw down was around 16.4%. But if you were if you stayed in the market, if you didn't get shaken out by noise, you made money.

02:54 The average rebound 12 months later, average was 30%. 10 for 10 higher a year after the low. Another thing to think about, and this is before we get to crypto, but another thing to think about is the VIX, meaning the volatility in the market. This is the fifth largest VIX pump in stock market history. So, VIX measures volatility. It's the volatility index, but some people also call it the fear index because it sort of is a good uh tracker for market anxiousness and fear in the market.

03:29 And the VIX is popping off. This was higher than the liberation day tariff crash back in April of 25. In retrospect, great time to buy. This was higher than the meme stock squeeze back in 2021, the beginning of 2021. And while this is technically still in progress, there's only been four times the VIX pumped greater. Most of these events aligned with buying opportunities.

03:53 This is what I can tell you as a crypto investor who sees the most volatility. People in crypto see the most volatility. While price may go lower, volatility always reverts to the meme quicker. Meaning, yes, price could go lower in the traditional stock market, but rate of change, volatility spikes. The volatility always has to revert to the mean. The VIX is up 65% today.

04:19 That is the only buy signal you need. At least that's what I'm doing because again price, yes, price could go lower, but fear in the market, panic in the market. This is a top five panic sell-off. And understanding that crypto is showing more strength than traditional markets, I think it is prudent, if I may use that word, to find some buying opportunities in the markets.

04:43 Because when fundamentals in crypto either stay the same or get better. And I'm going to show you some coins where fundamentals are undoubtedly getting better. But when there's fear in the market, that's when it's a good time to buy. I mean, everybody says so. The great say so. Warren Buffett says so. Buy when there's fear in the market. Two things I do want to say is number one, the reason crypto is showing more strength is because we just had our selloff.

05:05 Crypto just kept going lower and lower and lower for the past 12 plus months. And then just like a month or two ago, we hit around the bottom and and the buyers stepped in. There was no more sellers to sell and so only buyers brought the price up. Now, crypto went down for 12 months, but traditional markets stayed near all-time highs. So, they have some correcting to do.

05:28 What crypto already did wash the sellers out. Traditional markets still have to to do. And the other thing is there's still leverage in the traditional system. The reason the traditional system, the stock market, the NASDAQ, other global markets went down bigger and better, harder, harsher, is because they still had leverage, meaning forced sellers.

05:49 You always got to wipe the leverage out in every market. Crypto did that for the last 12 plus months. There was hardly any leverage for the last two months. We have to turn that out in traditional markets. And by the way, that that's healthy. that gets the dead wood out of the system and make sure only the quality can then blossom through it. Now, let's look at the top coins where fundamentals are improving.

06:14 But I will say if you've been shorting, you've been winning. This is for the traditional market. We could even go to preIPO companies. We know Anthropics IPO is supposedly still unless they cancel it, but coming up later in in November, and that's actually rallying right off the dip. If you're looking for a great exchange to buy, sell or trade crypto or stocks or preipo companies, I recommend a decentralized exchange where you can trade, put your trades in, take your profits off hours on the weekends.

06:44 So, as news breaks, you could take advantage while centralized exchanges of the stock market are sleeping. Choose a decentralized exchange which offers you access to short or long open AI or anthropic. Liquid exchange is a channel partner. I like them because they're non-custodial. There is no KYC. It's decentralized. And when you sign up with referral code altcoin daily, you get a $25 bonus with your first $100 deposit and 10% off all fees lifetime.

07:14 As we head in to the anthropic IPO, let's keep tabs on this price. These preo companies, at least the ones about to IPO, may be the strength that we can long or short. Link down below. You always want at least one centralized and one decentralized exchange in your toolkit. So, link down below, come trade with me because breaking news, the NASDAQ has officially approved the listing of the first ever injective staked ETF.

07:45 The ETF will bring unprecedented exposure to INJ the coin and will target staking 90% of its institutional holdings in the US. The ticker for that is INJC. I'm not speaking to that. What I'm speaking to is the the coin they're accumulating, Injective itself. If you remember my conversation with Canary Capital's own, Stephen McClur, this is the company that launched what I just talked about, that INJ staking ETF.

08:13 Listen to why he's bullish. Out of all the coins that Canary offers, it's it's flying under the radar. It hasn't really been noticed by inst has started, but institutions haven't got swept in yet. You know, I think the most interesting one and and we don't have an ETF for, but we have a filing for it is Injective. And um I think that's it's a fantastic team.

08:41 First of all, they're building real things. They're they're heads down. Um they're they don't they don't have this massive treasury that they're constantly selling off. Um they are I mean they're they're they're they're well capitalized. they're building, they're smart people, and they're uber focused on um integration with Wall Street. >> So, if your coin does not have the institutional bid, then I don't think it has a lot of hope for this next cycle because this is an institutional cycle.

09:14 And I think of Injective sort of like a smaller Solana or newer Solana just because of the market cap. It is so small. By the way, we are media media partners with Injective and I am an INJ investor from the IPO. So, I'll always be honest with you there. But this is big big news regardless. And next coin to pay attention to which is just on Jason Calcanis' startup podcast as all of these traditional AI players like the stalwarts that are on the stock exchange now as all these as as there's fear in traditional AI

09:46 centralized AI we do have we do have decentralized AI which is growing steadily. So again pay attention to the coins with growing fundamentals. Let's watch then react. The way we do things in the bit tensor universe is very different from the other universe. Um in our universe we have a subnet called Liam uh subnet 51 which is you know basically like a neighborhood or an AI company and they do compute and the way that they acquire their compute they don't rent data centers they don't borrow money they mine for it.

10:19 So they set up a incentive mechanism and what happens is miners just like Bitcoin miners right mine Bitcoin. These are um machine miners that come from all over the world supply capacity and they have to meet certain thresholds to the Liam network which then Liam turns around and sells to everyone else. So because it is worldwide um the capital expenditure is actually handled by the miners the people who are supplying compute from all over the world.

10:48 They pay for the electricity, they buy the machines and they take the risk. So it spreads out the risk and there's an ownership layer uh which is the bit tensor part. Basically these people can own a piece of the Liam subnet and by extension the TAO token. So the the expense is quite a bit lower. And there's another subnet uh called NG which is subnet 53 which provides inference one layer up the stack.

11:15 they are able to offer inference for oneif the cost of coreweave because because the economics are just so different right so and the risk is very different as well >> so point is like I I don't know which subnets and subnets are early stage very early stage AI and robotics companies building on bitens to I don't know which subnets will make it in the end as you just heard there's quality ones that are seeing growth the fundamentals are improving but I'm just bullish on the ecosystem itself that we have a solution

11:45 solution to the centralized players out there that control everything. I am bullish on decentralized AI and I think they're going to continue to grow their piece of the AI pie. And of course, big news with Solana breaking stable coin account is live in Samsung wallet across 82 million compatible Galaxy devices. meaning meaning you can buy hold and send USDC on Solana from the same wallet Galaxy users already open for cards boarding passes and ID IDs the plumbing is getting better the fundamentals are getting better and

12:25 Samsung wallet chose to integrate with Solana interesting if you made it this far in today's video click subscribe send this video to a friend and hit the like button I would really appreciate it helps us grow as a channel and like always see