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This is The Beginning of The Market Correction! Transcript, AI Summary & Key Points

Crypto Banter · 28 days ago · News & Politics · 35:34 · EN

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Answer

Yes — this is likely the beginning of the midterm stock market correction, but it is an AI-led cool-down rather than the end of the AI bubble: the NASDAQ is only down 6-7%, and Bitcoin has already bottomed before the correction, with one more leg toward $70-75k expected before the bull market resumes.

AI Summary

A hotter-than-expected CPI print pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.3%, triggering the worst NASDAQ day since July 29 and erasing nearly $1 trillion in market cap — the start of an AI-led correction that historically precedes US midterm elections. PPI then printed +1% month on month against a 0% estimate (producers paying 1.3% more, 0.8% above expectations), with energy up 10.8% driven by the Russia-Ukraine and Iran wars. Rising yields raise the cost of debt-financed AI infrastructure: the 10-year at ~5%, big tech and AI bonds at 6-8%, data center operators at 15% — and ~$500 billion of AI-related debt has been issued in 2026 per Goldman Sachs. AI infrastructure stocks are collapsing: Oracle down 59.2%, CoreWeave down 65%, and South Korea's KOSPI down ~40% from the AI-hype top (down ~22% from the September 22 top), prompting the Korean government to distribute anti-suicide messages. The core dilemma: the US has $40 trillion of debt and the only realistic path out is AI-driven productivity growth, yet raising rates to fight war-driven energy inflation chokes off the very data-center build-out that growth depends on. Yields are now falling anyway because bond markets want stocks to slow; gold bottoms when yields top and Bitcoin bottoms when yields bottom. Bitcoin already bottomed before the equity correction, but Ran expects one more leg down to the 50-week moving average around $76-77k, with a 20% correction from the ~$87k top targeting $70-75k; the Fear & Greed index sits at neutral, so he is not buying yet. Altcoins show quality holding better than hype: Zcash down 36%, VVV down 35% versus Stonk down ~80%, Lighter 50%, Ponds ~70%. He holds 6-7% of his portfolio in cash against a buy list (Backpack $60-80, Uniswap ~$5, Venice $15, Grass $0.50, Derive $20-30) and advises doing nothing until sentiment turns to panic, likely around the midterms or war escalation. This looks like the start of an AI slow-down, not the dot-com-style end of the bubble — the NASDAQ is only down 6-7%.

Key Points

  • CPI came in slightly hotter than expected, spiking the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.3% and dropping the NASDAQ 2.5% — its worst day since July 29, erasing nearly $1 trillion of market cap.
  • PPI printed up 1% month on month against a 0% estimate; producers are paying 1.3% more than the previous month and 0.8% above expectations, and what producers pay today flows into future consumer prices.
  • The PPI surge is energy-driven: energy up 10.8% and food up 1.2%, caused by the Russia-Ukraine and Iran wars rather than an overheated economy — so rate hikes are the wrong lever.
  • Rising government yields raise corporate borrowing costs further: the 10-year sits near 5%, big tech and AI bonds at 6-8%, and data center operators at 15%, with ~$500 billion of AI-related debt issued so far in 2026 (Goldman Sachs).
  • AI infrastructure stocks are in a 'great meltdown': Oracle down 59.2%, CoreWeave down 65% from its top, Galaxy and Marathon (which pivoted from Bitcoin mining to AI) down 76-85%.
  • South Korea's KOSPI collapsed 8-9% in one session and is down 21.86% since October 6, roughly 40% from the top of the AI hype; a government official is distributing anti-suicide messages as leverage-heavy retail fights losses concentrated in Samsung and SK Hynix.
  • China manufacturing cheap memory chips (Elon Musk retweeted that China will make a lot of RAM in 2028) threatens to deflate the overinflated memory/AI investment thesis in Samsung and SK Hynix.
  • The US has $40 trillion of debt and the only realistic path to repaying it is AI productivity growth that expands tax revenue — but raising rates slows the data-center build-out that growth requires; Kevin Warsh and Scott Bessent are banking on AI productivity.

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00:00 All right, let me explain to you what happened  in the last 24 hours that caused the markets to basically collapse a little bit. So  the first thing that happened was this, right? First, we got the CPI reading yesterday, and the CPI reading was slightly hotter than  expected, ever so slightly hotter than expected. What happened then was that the yields on  U.S.

00:15 government debt basically spiked. You can see that over here. So that's the  little spike that happened over there. That's the 10-year. It went to 5.3% in a  little bit of a spike. What that spike did was cause the markets to go down. So you had the  NASDAQ collapsing 2.5% or something like that. And the reason why the NASDAQ collapsed is because  the NASDAQ is full of the AI-heavy stocks.

00:35 And I'm going to explain to you why this could be  the beginning of the collapse of the AI bubble, which is going to cause the correction that  usually happens in the stock market just before the midterm elections. Now, usually  when that correction actually happens, that is the bottom for Bitcoin. And  that is usually when the four-year cycle actually starts, right?

00:57 I'm going  to show you today exactly what happened. So let's carry on. So the  NASDAQ started to come down. In fact, it came down. It had its worst  day since July 29th. It erased nearly a trillion dollars' worth of market cap.  Then this morning, after the NASDAQ closed, the Asian markets opened, and then you  had the KOSPI collapse another 8% or 9%.

01:19 Now remember that the KOSPI is the South  Korean index, right? Now that South Korean index is primarily made up of two stocks, which  are both memory stocks. So you've got SK Hynix, and you've got Samsung. Both of them are AI stocks  and memory stocks. Now, what you can see about the Korean market is the Korean market is down about  21.86% since the 6th of October.

01:36 So in the last 10 days or eight days, or let's call it the  last week on the markets, the Korean index is down 21.8%. Now that's representative of what  you can call the AI index. If you take that from the top of the AI hype, and you take it to  here, you've got the Korean index now down 40%. So the main thing that's happening here is there are fears around inflation.

02:02 As  a result of the fears around inflation, government debt rates are spiking, specifically  U.S. government debt rates are spiking. As the rates of government debt spike, that is  causing a collapse in AI and AI-related stocks. On top of that, a few minutes  ago we had the PPI numbers. Now, the PPI are the producer price numbers.  Now here's where the mess really started.

02:28 They were up 1% month on month, where the  estimates were supposed to be 0. So now you've got hot inflation yesterday,  and you've got hot PPI coming out. Now, why are the markets concerned about PPI? PPI  is the producer price index. It's what producers are paying. Here, the producers are paying 1.3%  higher than they were paying the previous month, and 0.8% higher than what the market is  expecting.

02:51 So long story short here, this is the price that producers are paying. Now  remember, what producers are paying today is what consumers will pay in the future. So now  we have the inflation worries back on the table. What's causing these inflation  worries? Well, let's have a look here. The expectations were 5.4%. They got 6.3%.  The cause of that, if you look at the table, or the cause of all that inflation, I mean,  you could break it down.

03:17 Food was up 1.2%. Energy was up 10.8%. This entire thing is  actually happening because of energy and because of the fact that there are two wars  going on at the moment, and both of them are energy wars. You've got the Russia-Ukraine war,  which is an energy war. You've got the Iran war, which is an energy war. I'm going to show you how  this all fits together in a couple of seconds.

03:43 So higher inflation leads to a higher chance  of rate hikes, although right now there's a 27% chance of a rate hike at the next  FOMC meeting towards the end of the month. Okay, so that's the story. Inflation is high. As a  result of the fact that inflation is high, yields are going higher. As a result of the fact that  yields are going higher, AI is starting to crash.

04:06 Okay, now let's talk about why AI is  starting to crash. Why are we getting this AI bubble starting to crash? Two  reasons, right? The first reason is that, remember, the AI speculation was around  infrastructure and around memory chips, right? And the first thing that's happening is that  China is starting to manufacture a lot of cheaper, more cost-efficient memory chips.

04:25 So Elon  Musk actually retweeted and said China will make a lot of RAM in 2028, right? So China  is starting to set up to make cheap memory. And remember that this whole AI, and  specifically when you talk about Korea, you talk about Samsung, you talk about SK Hynix,  you're talking about memory companies, you're talking about chip companies, chip manufacturers,  right?

04:43 And if China is going to be manufacturing much cheaper chips as soon as 2028, then all this  money that was put into the South Korean market, but also into the other markets, could  be overinflated. Maybe that investment is slightly overinflated, right? So that's the  first part of the issue with the AI bubble. But that's not the real issue. I see my forehead  is slightly shiny.

05:08 That's not the real issue with the AI bubble. Let me show you what the real issue  with the AI bubble is, right? As I mentioned to you, as inflation goes up, rates have been going  up. So as inflation goes up, as you can see, rates spiked yesterday. These rates are the 10-year and  the 30-year government lending rates. So this is what the U.S. government pays to borrow when it  borrows money.

05:32 When the rate that the government pays goes up, the rate that every company and  every corporate pays goes up even more, right? So basically, the government is  deemed to be a risk-free lender, right? So you can borrow from the government.  The government is basically risk-free. They call it risk-free because you assume  that governments are always going to be able to pay their debts, because they  can always just print money, right?

05:54 So as the risk-free rate goes up, the rate to  finance the data centers basically goes up. So I'll show you the relationship here, right?  So you get the risk-free rate, which is the U.S. 10-year Treasury, which is about 5%. But then the  big tech and AI bonds go to between 6% and 8%. And then the data center operators go to 15%,  right? So remember that a lot of the build-out of this AI infrastructure, the chip factories,  the energy plants, et cetera, is debt-funded.

06:33 When the risk-free rate goes up because lenders  want a higher risk-free rate because of inflation, that drives up the cost of the AI build-out.  And when the cost of the AI build-out, the cost of debt that is required  to build out those AI data centers, goes up, that basically slows  down the whole AI economy, right? So this is coming from Goldman Sachs.

06:55 It says,  "Credit markets are playing a growing role in the build-out of artificial intelligence, with nearly  $500 billion of AI-related debt issuance so far in 2026." So these AI companies are issuing  debt to finance their build-out. Problem is, when rates go up, the debt gets way too expensive,  and that pulls the handbrake on the AI bubble. And that's exactly what we're witnessing  right now.

07:19 Just look at these AI stocks, and specifically these are AI infrastructure  stocks, mining stocks, data center stocks, energy stocks. Just look at where we're  at here, right? Down 59%, 85%, 77%, 76%. So you had Galaxy, Marathon, which was a  Bitcoin miner and pivoted to AI. I mean, you know the whole joke of, if you're in crypto,  pivot to AI, right?

07:43 Well, they did pivot to AI, and now crypto has come back and AI has  basically taken a bath. That will serve you right for leaving crypto and not having diamond  hands. That's just basically how I can say it. But what you can see is that this is what they  call the great neocloud or the great AI meltdown. Big companies, companies like Oracle,  down 59.2%.

08:07 Look at CoreWeave. So CoreWeave is one of the darlings of the  cycle in terms of AI infrastructure. That is down now 65% from the  top to where we're at today. Okay, South Korea. I mean, as we mentioned before,  South Korea is also down a lot. I did have on my watch list a South Korea 3X leveraged ETF. I  wonder if I've still got that on my watch list somewhere.

08:35 I don't have it on my watch list.  But what's happening in Korea, the Koreans love taking leverage, right? The Koreans love  taking leverage. And so now the market is down 41%, and since the 22nd of September, the markets  are down, call it 23%, 24%. Remember, even though it's a big market, it is primarily made up of  two stocks, which are both AI stocks, which is Samsung and SK Hynix, right?

09:09 Now, essentially,  when you look at this market, it's down 22.7%. And now the president, or one of the high people  up in the government in South Korea, is basically sending out anti-suicide notes, basically  saying, "We must live." In other words, he's saying don't commit suicide. "You have to  live somehow. Even if it's hard, please call 109. In fact, Gil will help you find reasons to live  together."

09:34 So they're now worried that people are going to start committing suicide because of  the markets. That's how bad it is in South Korea. It's not that bad everywhere else in the world.  In fact, if I look at the U.S., the fear and greed in the U.S. is in fear. It's not even  in extreme fear yet. It's not as bad as Korea. Korea, the reason why it's so bad is because, A,  they're highly leveraged, but B, it's reliant on two AI stocks.

10:06 So even though the Korean market is  down 40%, when you look at the NASDAQ, the NASDAQ actually isn't that scary. So let's look from the  top to where we are today. The NASDAQ is only down 6% or 7%. So we're in the beginning of a market  collapse. Primarily, it's an AI market collapse. Now, let me tell you what the irony is here,  right? The big irony is that the only way that the U.S.

10:32 can maybe repay its debts, right?  Now, the U.S. has $40 trillion worth of debt, and it's increasing at a rate that we've  never seen before. The only way that... well, there are a few ways that the U.S. can repay its  debts. The first thing is that they can just print more money and inflate the currency out of the  debt. But that's basically currency suicide.

10:53 So one way that they can get rid of all this  debt is just print more money. As they print more money, the money becomes worth less and  less, and they can basically pay the debt. That is the base case. That's why we're here,  and that's why we're all holding Bitcoin, right? There is another way, though, which they ...can get themselves out of this, and there are  four.

11:08 One is cut government spending. Never going to happen, right? That's never going to happen.  They can raise taxes. Never going to happen. In fact, it may happen if the Democrats come  in, but it's probably not going to happen. They can inflate it away,  but that's a really bad way. And the last thing that they can  do is they can grow faster. Because if the economy grows very, very fast, then  they raise more money in taxes.

11:28 If they raise more money in taxes, they can  actually start paying their debts, right? Or at least they can stop this deficit that they  keep running and taking out more debt, right? Nobody takes on 40 trillion in  debt. Bro, have you met my wife? Have you seen my wife on a shopping spree? No, I'm  kidding. My wife's actually not like that at all. So here's the problem.

11:52 The only way  that the U.S. can repay this debt is if AI becomes so productive that we have  a couple of years where GDP grows so much that tax income goes up so much, and that way  the U.S. government can actually repay its debt. That is really, really, really the only  way that the government can repay its debt. Now the issue is that by raising rates,  the government is slowing down the build of the infrastructure of the only tool that can  actually save its debt.

12:24 Think about this, right? The only way that the U.S. government can ever  think of potentially repaying its debt without raising taxes or without cutting government  spend, which is pretty much impossible, is effectively to get AI to grow the economy  so fast that the economy becomes so robust and so big that the taxes the government  collects can actually be used to repay its debt.

13:00 That's the base case that both Kevin Warsh and  Scott Bessent are basically banking on, right? They're saying, look, there's going  to be an increase in AI productivity. And when we get that increase in AI  productivity, that increase in AI productivity will effectively grow the  U.S. out of its debt problem. The only problem is that if you want this  increase in AI productivity to happen, the first thing that you  need is the infrastructure.

13:35 And you're not going to have the infrastructure  if you raise rates, if rates keep going up. Because if rates keep going up, then the data  centers get very expensive to build. And if the data centers get very expensive to build, then  we've got ourselves a bit of a problem, because you won't have the infrastructure that you  need for AI to grow yourself out of this mess.

13:57 And so that's the big pickle that  the U.S. government's in here. You raise rates to stop inflation. The  problem is that when you raise rates, you also slow down the AI infrastructure build.  And if you slow down the AI infrastructure build, you're going to get to a point where you're  not going to have the infrastructure required to grow yourself out of this mess.

14:15 You see  basically where the U.S. government is, right? Okay, so that's the conundrum at the moment. I  think that the government is making a massive mistake, because the numbers are telling us  that the reason why inflation is going up is because of energy. Energy is going up because of  the war, not because the economy is overheated. And they're pulling the wrong lever for the wrong  thing, and it's actually becoming a problem.

14:47 So I mean, I guess on the good side, what  you're realizing now is that the rates, the yields, are actually starting to come down,  which is weird. Why are the yields coming down, even though the inflation numbers actually  came in much hotter than expected today? So the answer is very simple, right? The  yields want the markets to slow down. They want the AI build to slow down.

15:07 So what  they're saying is, look, either inflation must come down because the war ends, or inflation must  come down because the markets must slow down. And that's exactly what's happening here, right?  So you're getting the 10-year yield starting to come down, because what you're realizing is  as soon as the market started to come down, so did all the yields basically start coming down.

15:34 And that was actually highlighted by Amit's  Investing. I don't know if you guys ever watched his shows. It was a stock market show.  He says, if you're wondering why the 10-year yield is down today even though CPI had a horrible  print, I think it's because bond markets want to see stock markets go down. That's exactly what  they want. They want to see stock markets go down.

15:55 So, Ben Khan says yields are likely  in the topping process. He says, in prior midterm years, gold tends to  bottom around the time that yields top, while Bitcoin tends to bottom  around the time that yields bottom. So usually what happens is, and we  get this every midterm election year, every midterm election year we get a  correction towards the election.

16:12 So that's the chart. You can see these green lines  here are usually when we have the election. So usually we have a correction. This one  was a 10% correction in the market. This was a 20% correction in the market. And usually  Bitcoin starts to move after this correction. This time Bitcoin tricked everyone and started  to move before the correction.

16:35 So we actually bottomed a little bit before, and  now we're starting to move back up. I also warned you guys that there is another  reason why I think the stock markets are going to take another hit, and maybe we're going  to continue with our correction. And that is, I said, watch out for an escalation in the  war before the midterms next month, right?

17:00 So you know that this is a war between Iran and  Trump. And Iran, with whatever firepower they have left, wants to weaken Trump. Now, what do you do?  How do you weaken Trump just before the election? Well, you basically scale up or  escalate the fighting in the war just before the election, right? So imagine just  before the election, you start escalating the war.

17:24 You basically start escalating the war, and that's  exactly what is happening. This is from Mario Norfolk. He says all indicators point to war in  the next few days. Massive U.S. military buildup in the last two weeks, ongoing. Iranian and  Israeli military drills, Israeli jets over Syria, Iran, Iraq, etc., etc. Warning by Israel  to Hezbollah not to join the war with Iran, threatening to hold Lebanon responsible.

17:46 Qatar  warned its citizens to prepare for the worst. So just before the midterm elections, exactly  as I thought and as I posted a few days ago, I said I think there's going  to be an escalation in the war. Yesterday, Trump basically came out and said,  look, they're considering using the mother of all bombs against Iran. I think he later came out  and said, look, it's not a nuclear war.

18:05 They're calling it the mother of all bombs. But yeah,  so that's basically what Trump came out with. He said, we're having discussions with the  Islamic Republic. I want to make it clear to everyone that while Iran is in a very bad  situation, both economically and militarily, and while the blockade will remain in full effect,  blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm  elections.

18:27 Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. So basically, yeah, I mean, just  expect an escalation in the war. Why? Why are we expecting an escalation in the  war? Because they want to weaken Trump. They want Americans to go to the polls with high energy  prices, with high escalation. Because the Iranians don't like Trump. They can't reach a deal with  him.

18:49 That's the problem. He's too tough on them. So that's pretty much where we're at,  right? We're in this midterm correction, which happens every time in the midterm  years, just before the elections. I mean, the good thing is, as Ben said,  yields are likely in the topping process, which means yields will start coming down. Gold  tends to bottom at the time that yields top, while Bitcoin tends to bottom around the  time that yields bottom.

19:17 And Bitcoin's already bottomed. I mean, you can just say  that Bitcoin's pretty much already bottomed. All right, well, let's go to Bitcoin. So as I  mentioned, we're in the midst of this correction. These corrections are pretty normal in a bull  market. 20 to 30% is usually the base case. I would say, though, that the first level of  interest for us to look at is on the weekly.

19:42 We look at the 50-week moving average, which is what  I call the bull market line, because usually once we go over that, that's usually the bull market,  and we don't usually go below it, right? Usually. So I would kind of say that my first level  of interest is around 76, somewhere around here. Look, the line is on the way down. So I'd  say my first level of interest is around 76.

20:11 But more importantly, I'm not  really watching the price level of Bitcoin. I'm more watching  the sentiment around Bitcoin. And for me, in order for there to be a  correction, we need there to be panic. And I don't think there's panic in the markets.  I don't know about you, but the fear and greed is pretty much at neutral now, right? So there's  no panic in the market, that I can tell you.

20:31 So for me, it's not about the price as much  as it is about the sentiment. And right now, when I look at Twitter and I look at everything  else, I don't see people panicking. Everyone just seems very chilled. Everyone's just going  about their day-to-day. I look at the fear and greed. The fear and greed is very much neutral.  So to me, we're not at buy territory yet, right?

20:52 What I think is going to happen is I think we're  going to get one more leg down. So when we get that leg down, I kind of think that we'll get  to 76. Maybe we'll wick below it. I think we wicked below it once or twice in a bull market,  like here in COVID. You can see COVID. Okay, it was a black swan, but we did actually  wick quite a bit below the line.

21:06 But then we know that within a couple of weeks, we  basically went above the line again. So generally, we don't break below this line.  This would be the first level for me. That level is below the ETFs. We are actually  currently below the average ETF holding price. The short-term holder level right now is 81. So  no, sorry, not 81. It is 77, right?

21:30 So right now, the true market mean price  is about 77. So to me, 76, 77 is the next level. That's the next level. The  short-term holder basis right now is 73, 74. So to me, between 74 and 77, that's where  I could see this correction potentially starting to end, right? So why do I say  that? I'm looking for about a 20% correction. I'm looking for about a 20% correction from the  top.

22:06 Call that 87 the top, take it down about 20%. Okay, that's about 70,000, so  around between 70 and 75,000, I'd say. I wouldn't be surprised if  we go all the way back down to 70. It's not a long way away. That would make  the fear and greed basically go down, and then we could get on with the bull market, right?  Then we could just get on with the bull market.

22:31 So the good thing about corrections is you want  a correction. Specifically, you want a correction early in the bull market. The reason why you  want a correction early in the bull market is, I think it's pretty obvious that we're in a  bull market now. The whole sentiment's changed around crypto, et cetera, et cetera. And when  you get a correction in the bull market, that gives you the opportunity to buy all the things  that you didn't actually end up buying, right?

22:52 So for me, I've got my buy  list over here. You guys know, you've seen this buy list over here. I prepared  it a long time ago. I've got target prices. And now I start monitoring the tokens  against the target prices, right? So I've been waiting for this correction. I've been  telling you guys for days, I've got 6 or 7% of my portfolio in cash. It's in cash because I want to  buy specifically these tokens, right?

23:07 I don't want to buy every token. I want to buy specifically  these tokens. I don't want to buy other tokens. And that's why I've been accumulating  cash to actually buy these tokens, right? So right now, waiting for Bitcoin. I think Bitcoin  is doing really, really well given, if you look at the stock market, we're at 53 and they are  at 23. So they're actually not on extreme here in the stock markets.

23:34 That means that the  NASDAQ is probably down again. Yes. So that is the NASDAQ over here. NASDAQ is down.  Yes, the NASDAQ is actually down again, another 1%. This is a healthy  correction, guys. You can't have the NASDAQ just going up and up and up.  You want healthy corrections in the market. I mean, the NASDAQ's got a long way down  to go. And I think if it's going to happen, it's going to happen somewhere around  the midterm.

23:58 So this is that correction. That correction will send Bitcoin down to, I  hate to say it, but I think 70, around 70,000. I hope it bounces off the 77,000. That  would be my first line of interest. When we get to 77,000, I'll assess it against the  fear and greed. And if the fear and greed is also down quite a lot, then we can have a discussion.  But otherwise, all that's happening now is we're just chopping out the leveraged traders.

24:22 Another  billion dollars wiped out from leveraged traders. The good thing is, in the beginning of the  cycle, or specifically in bull markets, when you get these corrections,  they're usually not very long. So if you look here, okay, barring this  one, which was quite long, generally when you get these corrections, they're  quick. A month, maybe a month and a half.

24:45 Now if you look at where we're at, so if you  look at where we are when we started coming down, let's just go into the daily, I think it makes  it a bit easier. So let's take that as the top. We are 13 days into the correction, right?  So probably another two weeks, three weeks, which would take us towards the midterm elections.  So maybe we have the midterm elections and then we basically go up.

25:13 Between now and then, quite a bit  of volatility. Expect an escalation in the war. And my suggestion here now is just don't  do anything. Just don't touch the markets. Just sit back and just wait for your buy zones.  You've got to be extremely disciplined, right? Because look, when I look at the altcoins, I mean,  let's go on to the weekly. There have been some big, big, big moves down on the weekly, right?

25:35 You  can see huge moves down, 25% on Pump, et cetera, et cetera. In fact, probably a better way to  look at it is like this. So Zcash is now down 36% from the high. Lighter is down 50% from its  high. Now this is quite weird, because they are getting a whole lot of deposits from Robinhood.  The market started punishing them because they wanted a more formal integration with Robinhood.

26:00 So Lighter is one that basically got punished. If you look at Pons, and if you look  at anything on the Robinhood chain, those really got destroyed. And the  reason is there are no real teams, exceptional teams, developing exceptional  stuff on Robinhood. Yes, there were one or two protocols that were early out the gates, things  like Pons, which was just the launchpad.

26:21 But honestly, today with AI, anyone could vibe code  a launchpad, so it's not really that impressive. And they were making a lot of fees because  they were the first launchpad on Robinhood, and they were the best launchpad on Robinhood.  But the truth is, if you think about it, they shouldn't have gone as high as they did,  and now that's basically starting to come down.

26:45 You've got Stonk. Stonk is down 93% from  its high. And if you remove the wick, let's just remove the wick, let's just assume  that that was a crazy wick, it's still down 80, 84% from its high, right? So see, again, is  that the right price? It doesn't look correct. I'm saying that chart looks  like it's got lots of wicks. So let's try and see if we can find, yeah,  you see, there's one that's a bit better without the wicks.

27:09 So we take that from the  top and it is down, yeah, it's down about 80%. So literally you've got big tokens down 70, 80%.  What you're realizing, though, is that the quality is holding much better than the garbage that was  just pumped. So if you take something like Zcash, it's down 36%. If you take something like  Pons, it's down 70%, because Pons is just a vibe launchpad, effectively.

27:33 Whereas Stonk as  well, it got shilled way, way, way too heavily. There is going to be an entry point here.  There is going to be an entry point here. I'll tell you when. It's not yet. Again, we're  not looking at price. We're looking at sentiment. You've got VVV down 35%. The quality  stocks, the quality tokens, are down 35%. The bad ones, the ones that got overinflated,  that were shilled like crazy with no real substance behind them, those ones are  basically coming down 60%, 70%, 80%.

28:01 At some point, the alts, I would say  the alts. Is NEAR in a good buy zone? I don't think so. I think NEAR's got a little  bit of, I do think NEAR, by the way, is a token of the cycle. I interviewed Ilya last night.  We'll play that for you guys on the weekend. As I look at NEAR over here, NEAR is  down 23%. 23% is not enough for me. It was at $6. It's not enough for me.

28:26 I'll wait. I'll wait. It'll come down. It'll come down to, I mean, let's fantasize a  little bit. Let's look at the tokens on our buy list. So Backpack. I did say I was going to  wait for 80 on Backpack. We could just look at it, so Backpack USD. I think I can actually  get it cheaper than 80. It's already at 92. I think I can probably get it somewhere  around, yeah, 80.

28:47 Between 60 and 80 is where I'm going to start picking up Backpack. Yeah,  that's definitely one that's on my buy list. Uniswap. Let's have a look at Uniswap. UNI USDT.  Okay, so now you've got Uniswap. Uniswap is back at $6.90. Yeah, I mean, this move was pretty  quick, so I'd say around five bucks is a pretty fair price, if you can pick up Uniswap for  five bucks.

29:19 Stonk, I'm going to reduce that. I'm going to leave it blank for now. Venice,  15. That's when I'm going to start buying. Grass. Grass is another one that's on my buy  list. Let's look at Grass. Grass USDT. Again, yeah, my number here is 50 cents, so we are at  60 cents. I'm not looking for the bottom. I don't think it's going to go all the way back down to  30 cents, or where it was in Feb, March, which was 15 cents.

29:46 But I think I can get it cheaper than it  is today, so I'm going to wait a little bit there. Derive. Derive, I saw, did come down  quite a bit here. So DRV USD, here we go. Derive is down 36%. See, again, I think I'll  get it between 20 and 30, so I'm going to wait. So as you can see, I'm not in my buy list. I know it's hard, but the best thing is just  to have patience.

30:10 Just chill. Do nothing. Do absolutely nothing. Just honestly, just chill.  Do nothing. Wait for the sentiment to turn. Wait for people to start panicking. Wait for some  shock in the market. It could happen around the midterms. It could happen around the war.  That's the main thing, the name of the game. Someone says your trade must be doing well.  So in today's episode of how not to trade, okay, let me show you what I'm  doing.

30:35 What I've done here is, you can see my trade. I'm $10,000 down  on my Lighter trade and I'm $1,800 down on my NEAR trade, right? That's on  Variational. Again, I'm treating these now as holding spot positions, so I'm just going to  keep funding it while I'm holding spot positions. That's how you don't trade. As a trader, I should  have cut my losses, lost $1,000, $2,000.

30:56 But you know what? I was complacent because this is a  work laptop, right? I don't have it with me all the time, so I can't trade in and out of things.  So this is a work laptop. That's the problem. While I'm on Variational, guys, I'm  reminding you what Variational is. It is a perp DEX. It's the most exciting  decentralized perp DEX that there is. It has zero fees.

31:17 You see,  zero fees over here. Now, they are doing an airdrop. The airdrop is probably  going to be around a billion dollar airdrop, and it's happening sometime in the next two and  a half months. Okay, I know that for a fact. You can still earn points by  trading. Now, if you want to trade to make more points, trade the swaps. If you  want to trade perps, you can trade perps.

31:40 No fees, right? And every time you trade, every  Friday you get the points. The points are worth quite a lot, right? I've been getting a couple  of hundred points a week, and those couple of hundred points are worth, I think it's $60,  $70 a point. So long story short, I think you've got a last, last, last chance to farm  Variational points, and all you do is trade.

32:04 And we're going to get a lot of buying  opportunities. So load up a wallet, load up an account, deposit into an account.  I mean, you just send money. You deposit money using any wallet, any MetaMask wallet.  You deposit money into the account and you basically sit and you wait. And as  soon as there are trading opportunities, then you're ready to strike.

32:22 And while you take those trades, You're actually earning points.  So that's the first thing that we should probably mention to you. The other thing I should probably mention to you,  because I know that there are a lot of you guys that are Americans: if you want to trade perps on  a regulated KYC exchange, Kalshi, the prediction market people, also gives you perps.

32:39 They've  got their normal mode and they've got their... you see that, you've got... I know Hustle trades  here a lot. If you sign up and you trade $50, you get an extra $25 given back to you.  You've got this pro mode over here. So I've completed my... it's not going  to let me in on this work laptop. But you can go and trade in pro mode  and in normal mode.

33:01 So go and sign up. Also, remember, we're giving $5,000 away.  We'll start giving away, as we said, on Friday. We're starting to give away the $5,000. Yeah, I guess that's it. I  think the big message now is we might be in the beginning of an AI cool down.  I don't think it's the end of the AI bubble. I don't think it's the dot-com collapse of AI.  I think it's just a slowdown in the AI bubble.

33:25 I mean, again, just to give you a perspective of  where we're at, the NASDAQ is only down six or seven percent. When you zoom out, that's  what the NASDAQ chart actually looks like. So everyone calm down. Deep breath in,  deep breath out. Nothing's wrong. You want a healthy correction. It's normal to  get a correction in the midterms. This is just that correction.

33:44 It's happening now. Usually  Bitcoin only bottoms after this correction, but we bottomed before and we had our  first leg up. So don't cry because it's over. Smile because it happened. You  know what I mean? Just be happy about it. Yes, and if you're not farming these Variational  points, then you just don't like free money. There's a link below. If you use the link below,  it's got the code OmniRun.

34:04 If you use OmniRun, you get a 15% kicker. There's a link  below. If you use the link below, it's got the 15% kicker. You get a 15% kicker. Also, if you want to win one of these iPhones,  this is the most fun you can have, because if you're trading on BloFin with one of our links,  or Bybit with one of our links, or Toobit with one of our links, right?

34:27 Effectively, while you're  trading, the more you trade, the more spins you earn. With these spins you can win an iPhone Duo.  There are 20 iPhone Duos up for grabs. Literally just go and connect your BloFin, Bybit or Toobit  exchanges. Connect BloFin, Bybit, Toobit exchanges and integrate the volume. And then  basically you can win those iPhone Duos.

34:51 We've already given out one here and  one for someone at Variational. I'll give away another one tomorrow for anyone  who signed up an account on Variational. What else is there? Okay. Later on, much later  on, on Crypto Insider, I'm going to be live with Gareth Soloway. Let's just see what his chart  levels and his voodoo are saying about the levels. All right, my friends, I'll see you guys again  tomorrow. Until then, trade well, my friends.