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00:00 I saw you nodding your head on the was it Bitcoin was that was that what the nod was >> and uh it's going in the direction you're expecting it to go >> you know bearish to bullish reversal um market significant market structure changes next year um and it's akin to what happened in the early 2000 when China got accepted into the World Trade Organization.
00:20 It's not so much the the the asset, it's the market structure around it which created a super cycle in in commodities two decades ago and we were, you know, a bunch of Canadians working in New York City and there was no allocation to commodities. There was no sellside support. There was no banking. Then we had this massive trade. The exact same thing's going to happen with tokenization of assets, with stable coins, with Ethereum, with Bitcoin.
00:47 30 plus year market veteran James E. Thorne who has a PhD in economics and is the chief market strategist at Wellington Altus a financial company who manages over $50 billion in assets predicts a crypto super cycle is coming. I would suggest nobody's there. I would suggest when you look at a 3 to 5% allocation the sharp ratio of your portfolio goes up there uh goes up.
01:14 So, we're in that, in my views, we're in the same type of playbook as when China got into the World Trade Organization, and all of these legislative changes are going to happen next year in the United States. >> Click subscribe to Altcoin Daily for one video per day, keeping you informed. And while the NASDAQ is falling, while AI infrastructure companies are plummeting, signaling maybe this AI bull run bubble just popped, do not make the mistake of thinking that midterm years represent what's going to happen the next
01:45 year or that natural corrections in the market aren't healthy in a bull market. >> Stocks can have a 10 to% correction that's normal, natural, and healthy. And it's great because you get all the short-term, you know, hot money out. Uh the US the the the SMH or the semiconductor is about down 15% >> in October. It held in in September and provided the the uh ant the counter seasonal trade so that the markets were up.
02:19 Uh look, I look at charts. uh the the SMH can get back down to its 150day moving average upward sloping normal natural and healthy. Look, I'm of the view that we are still in the early phases of this AI build that we still haven't gotten into robotics and Gentic AI and people are sitting there looking using the old playbook and saying it's over. Well, that's where we are right now.
02:45 We're going to have people that disbelieve it got in early. But look, if you look at a company like Micron, Micron is booked out to 28. Uh, next year they're going to do $170 in earnings. It's booked. >> It's trading at six times forward. It's trading at about 13 times trailing. Do 13 times 170. >> And then you just sit there and then ignore the noise.
03:09 So, we're still very early on. >> So, let's talk about Coreweave, distressed AI companies, and then let me show you the data. What happens? You know some of this, but you don't know all of this. What happens during midterm years? And then what happens historically after? Again, it's completely free. It costs you nothing. Join this team. Join this army.
03:28 Click subscribe to Altcoin Daily to become a better investor just by staying informed with crypto. And before we get to crypto, of course, we have to talk about macro. Is this AI bubble? Like realistically, is this thing about to pop? Coreweave bonds fall into distressed territory. So the company's debt Coreweave was trading below 80 cents on the dollar on Wednesday causing a lot of fear on the future of this company.
03:55 And for perspective, Cororeweave is AI infrastructure and Coreweave has a perceived debt problem. Too much debt. Their bonds that are due in 2031 and 2032 now yield nearly 14.9% and 14.8% 8% respectively as investors demand greater compensation for lending risk. Meaning is there enough revenue to support the spend to support the debt that not just coreweave but openai anthropic etc are taking on with hyperscalers on track to spend $800 billion this year.
04:29 Investors are increasingly questioning how the AI expansion will be financed and whether borrowers can service the debt, conserve the debt. Very quickly, billionaire Arthur Hayes perfectly explains the fear that this these AI companies simply don't have the revenue to support the debt. I'm not saying I agree with this, but let's watch this, understand this, then react.
04:52 AI is a waste of money and mo in most cases like Anthropic the uh leak of their S1 for every$1 dollar of revenue it cost them $2 of cost that's a bad business so and if you think about like the end customer for all of AI you know western AI is either anthropic open AI or SpaceX not one of those companies makes money so the market says we will not willing to pay you a price commensurate with the amount of money it cost you to deliver this service yet these companies companies continue, right?
05:23 They raise debt, they raise equity, they essentially have an implicit government gu um backs stop from the US government and that's allowed them to continue wasting money. >> And so now that pretty pretty much everyone has recognized this, >> I think that everyone's trading now on how big is the bailout going to be. >> Yeah. >> Right. And so that's the perfect time for crypto.
05:42 This is why the bigger the a bubble bubble grows, the bigger the bailout will be, the higher Bitcoin goes. So two things I want to point out and actually with the second being looking at the actual data this will shock you I believe but number one even if you believe in the worst that these companies are insolvent simply because they're spending too much a lot of this bill won't come due for years.
06:04 So I don't want to be cynical or you know light about this or or wave this off but the bill is not coming due for years. So we're getting repricing but there's no pop happening yet. And also, according to expert James E. Thorne, high quality AI names still have room to run. Yes, the overleveraged ones will get flushed out. They'll get repriced. That's healthy.
06:29 But high quality AI is being pushed by the government. >> I mean, we are there's no question that we're in a historic AI capex cycle. 100% of t of capex is tax deductible taxdeductible in the United States when President Trump pass the big beautiful bill. So the question is is not that is it a cycle or is it a bubble? Yes, that's not profound. The question is when does it end?
07:02 I suggest you, Roger, it's 2031 when the capex stops being 100% tax deductible. The bears out today are saying it's going to happen next year. And if you listen to the companies, the TSMC, you know, listen to MicroM, what's happening, they're booked to 28. So we've got two years of solid earnings in front of us. how the market discounts it. Well, that's a different question.
07:36 >> And of course, as the market discounts AI, discounts hyperscalers, we know crypto is about to the literally the four big agencies, four, not the four, but four big agencies in the United States are about to unleash pro- crypto regulation for the first time ever, effective in January. the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, the SEC, and now the CFTC are all marching towards a January 18th, 2027 effective date.
08:02 Does not mean the price of crypto, the price of Bitcoin won't dip a little lower. Maybe it doesn't dip for the next two weeks. I don't know what the price of Bitcoin will do tomorrow, and neither do you. Nobody does. But I do know, looking at history, that midterms midterm years are always the shakiest for markets for two reasons. And while the S&P 500 rose in every single year after the midterm since 1950, meaning 12 months later, it's literally based on the data always higher.
08:35 The reason that the stock market usually corrects and we're usually very shaky during midterm years are two reasons. Number one is because markets hate uncertainty. They hate ambiguity. And we don't know what the Congress will be after November. We don't know what the superpower of the world uh their legislative system will be literally a month from now.
08:55 So markets hate ambiguity. It'll be much better in one month. But also I will say the two years before a midterm. That's usually when a president has the most power because they have the most control. In midterms usually the person in charge loses the house and then nothing gets done for the next two years because Congress is split. People are fighting and markets love when when mark and markets love when Congress is split and nothing gets done because that's certainty.
09:22 Bumpy before the vote, higher a year later so far every time since 1950. So it's normal. On average there's a 17.5% average biggest dip during a midterm year and then on average 15.5% up average change in the 12 months after the vote. And 12 months later, nobody even remembered what we were talking about during the midterms because a year after the vote, up every time since 1950.
09:50 Now, the question, the only question is, is it going to be up a little? Is it going to be of a lot? Maybe this doesn't happen, right? Just because it's happened before does not guarantee it's going to happen again. But if I was playing the lottery and these were my odds, if I was doing damn near anything and these were my odds, I'd take a bet on that market.
10:07 And to button this, we also know that midterm years bring the deepest dips. So there's dips in the markets every year. That's normal. But due to the uncertainty, due to the ambiguity, midterm years carry the deepest dips. And you know, we were talking about not similar. We weren't talking about AI bubble last midterms, but there was some scare in the market.
10:29 Everything got repriced and any dip was actually healthy. That was that was good for the market. This is an ongoing story. The minute I get new information, I will make a video. I will keep you updated. Be sure to grab a crypto bonus. This is limited time, but you can unlock up to $500 or up to $10,000 if you engage more just for buying, selling, trading crypto like you're doing anyway. Tap the like button if you made it this far. Like all we see tomorrow.